"The Islamic Republic is not only ready and willing to continue to fight for what it sees as an existential war— but that it is prepared for a longer fight."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the latest developments in the US-Israeli war on Iran, via BBC News⤵️

"Our interests in Europe and the UK are the same. Our values in Europe and the UK are the same. We need a UK voice in Europe. We really miss you guys."

President Alexander Stubb of Finland offers his view on Brexit.

Watch the event ➡️ bit.ly/4lGe54k

Brexit was ‘a colossal mistake’, says President Stubb of Finland – but Europe should build a flexible partnership with the UK During a speech at Chatham House the president outlined why the EU must embrace ‘flexible integration’ to forge closer relations with the UK and countries like Ukraine.

"I think Brexit was a colossal mistake."

President Alexander Stubb of Finland spoke at Chatham House today about Brexit, the opportunities for cooperation between Europe and the UK, enlargement of the EU and the need for ‘flexible integration’.

Why Iran could become the next Iraq The first Gulf war left a weakened regime in place without a political settlement — paving the way for future conflict

Iran could come to resemble Iraq after the 1991 Gulf war: a country militarily defeated and economically debilitated yet still governed by a reconstituted form of the same regime.

Read Sanam Vakil’s (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis on Iran for the @financialtimes.com.

Opinion | Trump Isn’t Ready for What He’s Starting in Cuba

Another op-ed to add to your weekend reading list. My @chathamhouse.org colleague Christopher Sabatini writes for the @nytimes.com about the Trump administration’s policy towards Cuba and the humanitarian crisis there.

Important analysis given unfolding events in Iran and Venezuela.

Why Iran could become the next Iraq The first Gulf war left a weakened regime in place without a political settlement — paving the way for future conflict

“Regimes built around powerful security institutions have a history of resilience, even in defeat.”

An important read by my @chathamhouse.org colleague Sanam Vakil in the @financialtimes.com this morning on what a post-war Iran might look like, namely Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.

China’s Five Year Plan commits to economic resilience – as the Iran war exposes the fragility of global supply Beijing is striving for tech self-reliance, aiming to embed intelligent technologies in its economy. But there is a tension in the strategy that could define China’s next decade.

Policymakers in Beijing have become increasingly convinced that globalization – once the engine of China’s meteoric growth – is becoming a source of vulnerability.

"Traffic has ground practically to a halt with 300 tankers building up in the Persian Gulf. Iran has achieved its aims but if it does move to formally close the Strait then that is a serious escalation."

Sanam Vakil joined Wolf Blitzer to discuss the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, via @cnn.com.

“The sad reality is they will have broken Iran and then will leave in place hardline remnants of an old regime that will be equally brutal, but economically strangled."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the consequences for Iran from the US-Israeli military campaign, via BBC Radio 4.

Iran may yet endure this war, but the Islamic Republic as we have known it cannot survive unchanged | Sanam Vakil The regime may now have to meet Trump’s demands merely to save itself. And he needs a coherent plan to deal with what he has unleashed, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

For the Islamic Republic, the priority is survival. Iran is not fighting to win in conventional terms, but the regime is fighting to endure.

Read Sanam Vakil’s analysis on the US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, via @theguardian.com.

Further to this point, MizarVision has now released images of the USS Gerald R Ford underway in the eastern Mediterranean with clear views of the flight deck.

Now imagine MizarVision doing this in the build up to a crisis in the Western Pacific with US carrier groups near Taiwan.

We are now in the world where Chinese commercial intelligence companies can photograph US F-22A stealth fighters at Israel’s Ovda Air Base and make satellite photos readily available for dissemination.

MizarVision has only been around since 2021. This is a major shift with huge implications.

Iran’s Divided Opposition Only a unified movement can threaten the regime.

Iran’s opposition groups must learn to work together, otherwise the Islamic Republic will persist. Not because it commands popular support — but because there is no alternative.

Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis with @alexvatanka.bsky.social via @foreignaffairs.com ⤵️

"It remains to be seen whether Bangladesh can move on beyond the politics of protest, the politics of revenge which have plagued the country for decades."

@chietigj.bsky.social on Bangladesh's first election since the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina, via @france24.com ⤵️

"I don't think that if the Trump administration scores some form of regime change [in Cuba] we would see China or Russia come to the defence of the Castro regime."

Christopher Sabatini on the Trump administration's assertive policy towards Cuba, via @deutschewelle.dw.com ⤵️

War, a Trump-imposed deal or internal regime collapse: for Tehran, none of the options are good | Sanam Vakil Iran’s leaders now face unprecedented peril. The regime has lost its footing, and the global mechanisms to avoid conflict no longer work, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

Iran is confronting a strategic reality it has never faced before – a simultaneous crisis of domestic legitimacy and a threat of external attack so severe that regime survival can no longer be taken for granted.

Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis for @theguardian.com ⤵️

"The UK should be engaging with China, but should be doing so in a structured way, avoiding the red flag areas relating to issues of national security."

@jkynge.bsky.social on Keir Starmer's visit to China and the opportunities and challenges in engaging with Beijing, via BBC News ⤵️

"I think Xi Jinping, when he looks at the world around him, sees a place beset by threat, especially from the West."

@jkynge.bsky.social on the worldview guiding China's foreign policy.

Watch in full➡️ bit.ly/4qwKdJ7

"This year will be the most consequential year for the Islamic Republic. There will either be transition from within or forced transition."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the major challenges facing the regime in Iran this year ⤵️

The simple fact is that if Joe Biden had delivered a speech at Davos as rambling and as disjointed as what we saw Trump deliver there would have been uproar in the US and calls to remove him from office.

Instead news organisations feel compelled to explain away what we saw and imply a strategy.

The strong ‘abusive husband’ energy emanating from the United States towards Europe is both depressing and also unsurprising.

And just like an abusive spouse the shock of Europe (and Canada) leaving the US will mean the abuse and vitriol will get worse with little to no self-reflection.

China is testing South Korea in the Yellow Sea Could it become the next big maritime flashpoint?

What happens next in the Yellow Sea will speak volumes about China’s true intentions towards South Korea

"We are witnessing the slow downfall, evolution, perhaps collapse of the Islamic Republic. There are a thousand ways this could evolve."

Sanam Vakil joined Francine Lacqua to discuss the protests in Iran and their impact on the future of the Islamic Republic, via @bloomberg.com ⤵️

1.2 million Russian casualties in Ukraine overall.

"Without strong and coordinated support from the US, it's hard to see how protestors inside Iran can brave the repression which has been extraordinary."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the violent crackdown on anti-government protestors by Iran's regime, via BBC News ⤵️

"These protests, whatever the outcome, will further damage an already fractured legitimacy for a state system that is at the end of its life."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the impact of anti-government protestors on the Islamic Republic of Iran, via @cnn.com ⤵️

"The Iranian state is reaching a dead-end of its own. There's not much they can do besides brutality."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the crisis of legitimacy facing the Islamic Republic of Iran amid widespread protests, via @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social ⤵️

The Danger of the Maduro Model for Iran The country should not expect salvation from abroad, but define what kind of political future it wants, writes Sanam Vakil.

The ouster of Nicolás Maduro suggests that Washington’s priority is leverage rather than liberation, and compliance rather than collapse. For the Iranian people, that is a bleak prospect.

Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) analysis on what events in Venezuela mean for Iran, via @time.com⤵️

"The protests speak to the continued legitimacy crisis that the Islamic Republic faces. The economic dynamics in the country are devastating."

Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) joined the Today programme to discuss the anti-government protests in Iran, via BBC Radio 4.

US intentions towards Greenland threaten NATO’s future. But European countries are not helpless US threats to annex Greenland following the attack on Venezuela should be taken seriously. European countries have important leverage they should be prepared to use.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has said that an attack on Greenland would end NATO. This is not an exaggeration.