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Posts by Basha باشا

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Join me tomorrow morning in Arlington, Virginia. I’ll be speaking at the GTSC's Homeland Security Today 2026 Counterterrorism Conference on the Yemen-based Houthis and Iran’s shifting proxy strategy.

members.gtscoalition.com/calendar/Det...

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Iran: Who Actually Calls the Shots as Divisions Surface in Tehran

Mounting backlash inside Iran puts Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi under pressure as criticism from state media and lawmakers intensifies over his handling of talks and public messaging. open.substack.com/pub/basharep...

2 days ago 0 0 0 0
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Between bombs and talks: What is Israel’s endgame in Lebanon? Lebanon is trapped between Israel’s unachievable military and political objectives, the Lebanese state’s inability to act, and Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm

My press comments published in The New Arab by Cian Ward: Mohammed Al-Basha, founder of Basha Report, a US Risk Advisory Firm, says the main issue is the distance between different visions. Read more: www.newarab.com/analysis/bet...

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Rhetoric aside, nine days have passed since the last Yemen-based Houthi drone or missile attack on Israel, and 18 days since military operations resumed, with no maritime vessel targeted during that time.

5 days ago 0 0 1 0
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Iran Signals Ongoing Military Capability Amid U.S. Naval Blockade Even after major naval losses, Iran retains missiles, drones, and unmanned boats that can still threaten shipping and regional stability.

This Basha Report examines Iran’s options after the U.S. imposed a naval blockade. It covers likely responses, risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and includes a detailed list of Iran’s remaining weapons, from anti-ship missiles and drones to mines, torpedoes ... bashareport.substack.com/p/iran-signa...

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Vessels Trickle Past Iran as Questions Remain Over Strait of Hormuz Status - USNI News Traffic flow in the Strait of Hormuz will likely continue at a slow trickle despite a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States, maritime experts agree. The majority of transits continue t...

Although mines have long been a discussion in the strait, this is the first time Iran openly said Tehran placed sea mines, Mohammed Al-Basha, founder of the risk analysis Basha Report, told USNI News in an email. . news.usni.org/2026/04/09/v...

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Strait of Hormuz Shipping Outlook: Oil Shipping Risk & Freight Rates Q&A | Argus Media Explore the Strait of Hormuz shipping outlook post US-Iran conflict. Q&A with risk analyst Mohammed al-Basha on oil shipping risk, freight rates, and Houthi threats.

While in London this week I spoke with Argus, Associate Editor, Andrey Telegin, about the outlook for Hormuz traffic, the debate over potential toll frameworks, and why Yemen's Houthis remain a key swing factor for regional shipping risk.

www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-...

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I’m in London this week. Excited to catch up with old colleagues and meet some new people. Feel free to reach out (DMs open).

1 week ago 0 0 0 0
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It now appears that the Qatar-linked LNG tankers Al Daayen (IMO 9443413) and Rasheeda (IMO: 9443413), which loaded cargo in late February, briefly moved east toward the Strait of Hormuz but have since turned back.

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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Inside the Houthi arsenal of small arms, land systems, missiles, naval systems, and drones A 116-system network spanning land attack, maritime strikes, and aerial warfare

Exclusive for Basha Report Substack Subscribers:

Inside the Houthi arsenal of small arms, land systems, missiles, naval systems, and drones. A 116-system network spanning land attack, maritime strikes, and aerial warfare

open.substack.com/pub/basharep...

2 weeks ago 1 0 0 0
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I appreciate the White House, the State Department, and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee staff for taking time out of their busy schedules to meet today. Thank you for the thoughtful conversation and the chance to discuss current issues. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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I appeared on BBC News with Steve Lai tonight to discuss the relationship between Iran and the Houthis, focusing on the situation in the Red Sea and the risks facing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and global shipping routes.
x.com/bashareport/...

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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Breaking: Yemen-based Houthi military says a statement is coming soon.

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Al-Houthi Unveils $27 Billion Losses, Pressures Saudi Arabia for Compensation Houthi Signals Support for Iran Without Declaring War or New Operations

[Free Article] @BashaReport @Substack
Al-Houthi Unveils $27 Billion Losses, Pressures Saudi Arabia for Compensation: Houthi Signals Support for Iran Without Declaring War or New Operations open.substack.com/pub/basharep...

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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From BashaReport’s Substack

Iran: Men of the Regime

From Zolghadr to Ghalibaf, both power and peace talks sit within a small group where war, intelligence, and politics meet.

open.substack.com/pub/basharep...

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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#Iran | Multiple United States Air Force C-17 aircraft have been departing from Fort Liberty [Fort Bragg], via Simmons Army Airfield (KBOP). The base is home to major units including the 82nd Airborne Division ... substack.com/profile/2845...

3 weeks ago 0 0 1 0
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Mohammed Albasha (@bashareport) My press comments published by The Wall Street Journal’s Stephen Kalin, Omar Abdel-Baqui, and Saleh al-Batati: Tehran could pressure the group to join the fray. The group’s secretive leader, Abdul-Mal...

My press comments published by The Wall Street Journal’s Stephen Kalin, Omar Abdel-Baqui, and Saleh al-Batati .. read more substack.com/@bashareport...

4 weeks ago 1 0 0 0
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The Unseen Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khameni's rise from a shadow operator to absolute power. Wars shaped him. Loss hardened him. Now power gives him a path for retaliation driven by grief and anger.

Deep Dive: The Unseen Supreme Leader
Mojtaba Khameni's rise from a shadow operator to absolute power. Wars shaped him. Loss hardened him. Now power gives him a path for retaliation driven by grief and anger.
open.substack.com/pub/basharep...

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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Mohammed Albasha (@bashareport) Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a warning urging people to stay away from key oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. In a statement, the IRGC said several sites ha...

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a warning urging people to stay away from key oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. substack.com/@bashareport...

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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Just wrapped up a briefing with Basha Report Risk Advisory clients on developments on the Houthi front in Yemen, the war in Sudan, business opportunities in Syria, and the latest on negotiations with Iran. Reach out to see which service package fits your needs and how we can support your business.

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Mohammed Albasha (@bashareport) #SITREP #Saudi | In the past 24 hours, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defense said Saudi air defenses intercepted and destroyed 65 drones and 7 ballistic missiles across 21 official statements and alerts....

#SITREP #Saudi | In the past 24 hours, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defense said Saudi air defenses intercepted and destroyed 65 drones and 7 ballistic missiles across 21 official statements and alerts. substack.com/@bashareport...

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Missile Attacks Define Strait of Hormuz Risks, Officials Say - USNI News THE PENTAGON — Missiles are currently the largest threat to merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf instead of sea mines, defense officials told reporters Friday. Iran has used surf...

U.S. Naval Institute: U.S. air superiority is an issue for the [Iranian] fast-attack craft, which can easily be destroyed by U.S. fire, Mohammed Al-Basha , who authors the Middle East risk analysis Basha Report , told USNI News.
news.usni.org/2026/03/13/m...

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Los hutíes de Yemen se contienen ante el temor de nuevas represalias de Estados Unidos e Israel Los aliados de Irán meditan su repuesta en medio de presiones internas. Si el conflicto se alarga amenazan con intervenir, incluso con un bloqueo del mar Rojo

“Si la guerra se alarga y aumenta la presión dentro del Eje de la Resistencia, es más probable que intervengan con una escalada calibrada”, anticipa Mohammed Al-Basha, experto en Yemen y autor del informe de riesgos Basha Report.

elpais.com/internaciona...

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Why Iran’s Allies Have Yet to Join the War Effort Iran spent decades cultivating its allies, but the Houthis, Iraqi militias, and other sympathetic forces have plenty of reason to stay on the sidelines—at least for now.

My press comments published by Sudarsan Raghavan for The New Yorker: [Basha Report's] Mohammed Al-Basha, a Middle East politics-and-security expert, told me that the Houthis have been readying themselves for action. www.newyorker.com/news/the-led...

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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Mohammed Albasha (@bashareport) On the question of Houthis joining the war In the section of the statement that addressed regional allies, Mojtaba Khamenei described the resistance front as a network of partners working together ag...

On the question of Houthis joining the war

In the section of the statement that addressed regional allies, Mojtaba Khamenei described the resistance front as a network of partners … continue reading: substack.com/@bashareport...

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47 Years in the Making: The War Washington Always Knew Would Come - HSToday The current US campaign against Iran is best understood not as an isolated military battle, but as the open phase of a protracted conflict that has been building for decades through nuclear aspiration...

I argue in GTSC's Homeland Security Today

47 Years in the Making: The War Washington Always Knew Would Come

www.hstoday.us/subject-matt...

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Exclusive: Answering the key question of whether the Houthis in Yemen will join the war in support of Iran or stay out of it.
ttps://open.substack.com/pub/bashareport/p/the-houthis-quiet-restraint-in-the?r=4pe2u8&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

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Tomorrow on Basha Report’s Substack, “The Houthis’ Quiet Restraint in the Arabian Gulf” goes live at 10 am ET.
Subscribe to read it first.
bashareport.substack.com

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Iran war destabilizes Middle East politics As the US and Israel continue their air strikes, Iran has retaliated by hitting neighboring states. Domestic politics are in disarray around the region.

"Many analysts miss the emotional and religious weight of losing [Khamenei]," Mohammed Albasha, analyst and founder of the US-based risk-analysis consultancy Basha Report, told @cathrinschaer.bsky.social.
amp.dw.com/en/iran-war-...

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Free Basha Report Substack article: Iran’s Wartime Chain of Command Starts to Break

The Revolutionary Guard holds growing operational power and may refuse to accept a supreme leader who does not back its strategic direction. bashareport.substack.com/p/irans-wart...

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