Thanks for sharing this pre-print — it reminds me a lot of DeMarzo et al. (2003) "Persuasion Bias, Social Influence, and Unidimensional Opinions", QJE. Didn't see it cited, worth comparing to as a model. Also, I can't find citation [80] in your bib, which looks related. Hallucinated or typo..?

Was reminded of this one-page 1988 love letter to differential equations by @stevenstrogatz.com, and looked it up and re-read it. Such a gem.
ai.stanford.edu/~rajatr/arti...

Paper is full of great detailed examples of "shifting goalposts":

sounds legit

The arc of history is long and has extremely poor convergence bounds

🚨New preprint and our results are rather concerning..

We find the "boiling frog" equivalent of AI use. Using large-scale RCTs, we provide *casual* evidence that AI assistance reduces persistence and hurts independent performance.

And these effects emerge after just 10–15 minutes of AI use!

1/

Opinion | It’s Called Silicon Sampling, and It’s Going to Ruin Public Opinion Polling

In lieu of lecture blogging on simulation and prediction, check out this fortuitously timed op-ed in the NY Times by @leifw.bsky.social and me on the absurdity of Silicon Sampling. (Related lecture blog tomorrow!)

lmao this one is incredible. “Head of product at X condemns quote-tweeting” my brother in Jira you’re the shift manager at the quote tweet factory

Knowing Your Creativity, Part 2: Speaking Finnegan’s Wake Researchers trained an AI exclusively on Joyce’s novel. The objective was to map the inner realm where, perhaps, literary creativity happens.

On FinneGAN exploration of latent spaces
rickmossart.substack.com/p/knowing-yo...

Nature meta-research project puts claims in social-science paper to the test. Refs in last post

I'm interested in Econ and Psych so I focused on that:

Econ had about the same rate of "not reproducible" analyses as Psych and a worse rate then Political Science.

r u ok

Screenshot from "Loi de Poisson" (French Wikipedia article). It says, "Ne doit pas être confondu avec Loi de Fisher."

Bilingual joke? French Wikipedia says the Poisson distribution is "not to be confused with Fisher's distribution" (the F-distribution)

fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loi_de_...

AI-assisted Reviewing is Necessary and Should be Open Peer review is facing a death spiral. AI production tools are speeding it up. AI-assisted reviewing is necessary and should be open.

Peer review is facing a death spiral, and AI production tools are speeding it up. AI-assisted reviewing is necessary and should be open. We built OpenAIReview: open AI reviewing for everyone, for the cost of a coffee.

openaireview.github.io/blog.html 🧵

Pleased to share our new paper forthcoming in @icwsm.bsky.social! We introduce a novel framework to measure value expressions in social media posts at scale, leveraging personalization to handle the inherent subjectivity of human values.
arxiv.org/abs/2511.08453

A Litigation Playbook for Narrative Warfare Eric Schmitt’s “The Last Line of Defense” casts courts as stages for political spectacle rather than forums for justice—and rewrites the evidentiary record along the way.

"The point is not accuracy. As Schmitt tells the reader, the point is the story. And in the age of framing and attention games, this realization is unfortunately not entirely wrong."

@noupside.bsky.social discusses Senator Eric Schmitt's new book.

Transposition is Nearly Optimal for IID List Update The list update problem is one of the oldest and simplest problems in online algorithms: A set of items must be maintained in a list while requests to these items arrive over time. Whenever an item is...

Neat new analysis of Transposition vs Move-to-Front self-organizing lists (as memoryless learning algos for rankings) by Christian Coester. Also cool (and in 2026, not surprising) that GPT 5 Pro helped a lot. See @sbubeck.bsky.social's recent post on X for process details. arxiv.org/abs/2603.10244

Got baited by hopes of a "(small world) meets (world models)" essay, but was pleased to instead find a "it's all control theory (always has been)" essay. My father took classes from Åström in Lund in the 60s. He still came to dept fikas when I was a MS student in the 00s. Sharp, sharp man.

Two weeks left to submit! Confirmed participants include Kosuke Imai, @5harad.com, Jeremy Freese, Siwei Cheng, Jessica Hullman, Adam Berinsky, Yiqing Xu, @jugander.bsky.social, and many others.

Extremely useful!

Come work with The Public's Science team @ the Institute for Advanced Study. Hiring a fellow to develop digital infrastructure for public engagement, and are seeking someone committed to reimagining the social contract for American research. Please share widely.

jobs.chronicle.com/job/37962820...

Chief Executive Officer - New York City, New York (US) job with arXiv | 37961678 arXiv seeks its first CEO to champion open, free scientific discovery and guide the platform’s next chapter as an independent nonprofit.

This might be the biggest job in (open) science. Cornell is creating a new non-profit organization to house @arxiv.bsky.social -- and hiring a new person to lead it.

jobs.chronicle.com/job/37961678...

A few people have asked for the syllabus from my grad seminar on Generative AI for social science -- just posted it here:
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/10/n...

Call for Submissions: AI for Social Science Methodology (Yale)
• Keynote: @nachristakis.bsky.social
• Panel with editors of leading journals on publishing AI research
• Mentoring roundtables for early-career scholars
• Generous travel support
Discussion-driven, high-quality research.

How AI is changing the nature of mathematical research What machine learning theorists learned using AI agents to generate proofs — and what comes next.

Michael @mkearnsphilly.bsky.social ) and I wrote a blog post about our experiences using AI for research, and our thoughts on what these developments will mean for research, publication, and education: www.amazon.science/blog/how-ai-...

Two dose-response functions. When probabilities of exposure are not homogeneous across units, we can only partially identify the expected average outcomes from the average outcomes by exposure — even when the exposure map is correctly specified; see Corollary 11.2 — as shown here using data from Cai et al. (2015). AFEOs by exposure (left) only partially identify the EAO curve (right). Lines indicate bounds on the EAO, with red lines being the bounds when outcomes are assumed to be monotonic under exposure levels. Error bars and bands are 95% confidence intervals.

I'm giving the upcoming Online Causal Inference Seminar, this Tuesday 11:30am Eastern.

I'll be talking about different dose–response functions you might want to estimate when treatment effects may spill over from one unit to another.

Tune in & ask questions!
sites.google.com/view/ocis/home

Methods Rolodex A structured set of methods notes migrated from the LaTeX source in 00_methods_notes.

LLMs are finally good enough at latex that codex helped me port over my gigantic (150+pg 2col) grad school methods notes into an obsidian vault that makes upkeep considerably easier.

Read, refer relevant sections to your favourite clanker, enjoy!

apoorvalal.github.io/lalgorithms/...

The effects of Facebook and Instagram political advertisements on the 2020 US election Nature Human Behaviour, Published online: 05 March 2026; doi:10.1038/s41562-025-02329-9To study the effects of political advertising, we conducted a field experiment with over 60,000 participants. Removing political advertisements from the Facebook and Instagram feeds of randomly selected participants before the 2020 US election did not have a detectable effect on political knowledge, polarization, turnout or political participation.

The effects of Facebook and Instagram political advertisements on the 2020 US election

Worthwhile new essay "Mathematicians in the Age of AI" by Jeremy Avigad, CMU professor and director of the NSF Institute for Computer-Aided Reasoning in Mathematics (ICARM) at CMU: www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/avigad/...

Harsh Parikh will present work on how to transport estimated effects from one set of networks to another.

Shuangning Li will share new results on covariate adjustment in experiments.

So if you're working on networks+causality, consider participating. Abstracts due March 10th causnets.github.io