One company is responsible for half of S&P 500 earnings revisions since Iran war’s start
"That company is Micron Technology...which according to Goldman Sachs calculations has a 51% share of the earnings per share revisions since the Iran war started."
www.marketwatch.com/story/the-na...

Not many precedents for this setup...
Chart source: Jason Goepfert

The “retail lost interest during the Iran war correction” narrative may be off.
Maybe they just left public markets – not enough juice.
Offshore CFDs offer (near) unlimited leverage.
~$30T/month notional in Q4 2025.

"Non-commercial futures traders (who are the smart money in Bitcoin futures) keep adding to their net longs even as prices chop sideways. This is a big bottoming indication for prices." Source: Tom McClellan

You’ve been spot on Robin. But how is the US at war with Iran and not already blockading them? I would’ve assumed a blockade would be part of a war strategy – something you have already implemented before threatening to wipe out their civilization.

"The market timers’ eagerness to instead believe that the worst is over is more reminiscent of the “slope of hope” that markets slide down." - Mark Hulbert
buff.ly/7zcspue

Too much focus on future paper barrels sometime in the future and not enough on the real ones getting traded today. In this case, in the North Sea:

Retail traders are selling everything but the Magnificent 7 sherwood.news/markets/reta...

Starting to feel like the geopolitical equivalent of a payday loan for the US, w/ lower oil prices and stability into the midterms. In exchange, Iran may be more hardline, led by a “martyr’s” son, while retaining leverage over the Strait and likely continuing its nuclear program. What am I missing?

We’ve all grown to see him as a bluffer (I wonder if the TACO moniker bothers him). Markets don’t think he’ll follow through…late rally today will only embolden him. Tariffs are the template: mkts shrug off outlandishness when he wavers, then move higher, settling into “it coulda been worse.”

Another bit of data supporting the idea that retail traders are as susceptible as ever to human nature and crowd psychology. According to Citadel, retail players turned heavy net sellers last week, perhaps suggesting near-term capitulation. They bought the the highs hand over fist in late January.

Defensive sectors just flipped to leadership. That’s rare – and historically important. The last four signals since 1989 all aligned with recessions or bear markets. When defensives lead, stocks tend to struggle.

ISM flashed a “prices > demand” warning in March, with the spread pushing above +20 territory that has historically been unfriendly for stocks.

Since the end of Bretton Woods, a large share of bear markets or recessions have coincided with sharp oil spikes. A ~75% YoY surge has been a useful threshold. April will land right around that level unless crude drops back below ~$104–105.

"withdrawal requests at...Blue Owl Technology Income Corp, had surged to 40.7 per cent of the fund’s $3bn value. Requests to exit the...Blue Owl Credit Income Corp, shot to 21.9 per cent of the fund’s value."
Blue Owl struck by $5.4bn of redemption requests (FT)
buff.ly/gZMQjRc

Dallas Fed: Using newly available microdata that measure net unauthorized immigration through December 2025, an estimate of breakeven job growth is lower than previously thought and turned *slightly negative*

www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

Sentiment Surveys have broken away from excessive optimism, but investor responses remain only halfway to levels that would objectively qualify as bearish.

Investors Switch to Cash From Stocks and Bonds Like It’s 2022 (Bloomberg)
"Still-low cash allocations by historical standards present a headwind to both equities and bonds going forward for as long as geopolitical and macro uncertainty remain elevated."
buff.ly/UFcM4pg

‘In many cases, households have run through the excess savings built up from 2020-21. Retail involvement in the market is probably due to backslide. If so, the Robinhood premium that’s persisted for the past 6 years could quickly turn into a retail discount.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Always disregard any comments that close with “asking for a friend.”

Not Worried About an Oil Shock? Chevron CEO, Other Energy Execs Sure Are. The energy industry is just starting to grapple with the huge toll of the Iran war.

“The window during which you could have restarted flows, and the market goes back to normal in weeks or a month, closed pretty quickly within the first week,” said Karim Fawaz, who leads S&P Global’s energy advisory service. “Now we’re way past that window.” www.barrons.com/articles/oil...

Do markets believe the president?
"simple and useful index of the pressure on the president, an equal-weight measure composed of four-week changes in the S&P 500, the 10-year Treasury, short-term inflation expectations and the presidential approval rating. The heat is on" - FT
buff.ly/jZzIto3

Retail Traders Are Selling Stocks for First Time Since 2023 For retail investors, the US stock market’s most reliable dip buyers in recent years, risks are starting to outweigh the rewards.

"The trend since the start of March has been one of gradually receding retail participation, alongside systematic deleveraging and only modest buying from long-only and hedge fund investors on the other side"
buff.ly/e92kdGi

Ares limits withdrawals from $10.7bn private credit fund Redemption requests across industry surge as exodus of wealthy individuals accelerates

'Ares Management has limited withdrawals from one of its marquee private credit funds pitched to wealthy individuals, as redemptions surged to 11.6 per cent in the first quarter amid a broad flight from the asset class.‘ www.ft.com/content/9a1b...

Another one: *ARES LIMITS WITHDRAWALS FROM $10.7B PRIVATE CREDIT FUND: FT

Apollo Caps Private Credit Fund Withdrawals as Requests Hit 11% Apollo Global Management Inc. is curbing redemptions from one of its largest non-traded private credit funds for retail investors, becoming the latest alternative asset manager to grapple with a surge...

'Apollo is curbing redemptions from one of its largest non-traded private credit funds for retail investors. With redeeming investors receiving just 45% of their capital, Apollo Debt Solutions is returning less cash to clients than some of its peers.' www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Let's stop lionizing retail traders for supposedly buying every dip with courage and aplomb.

Aggresive retail buying was nowhere to be found in the days leading into last week's market lows.

As ever, they gorged at the highs and one sign that a bounce was due was small traders fleeing. Via Citi...

“For the first time this year, retail investors are showing persistent signs of weakness, with weekly purchases decelerating by ~30% after defying seasonal patterns and making February their 3rd largest month on record.” sherwood.news/markets/jpmo...

Gen Z’s ‘Financial Nihilism’ Finds Outlet in Prediction Bets, Crypto Being financially “behind” is fueling moves into higher-risk and speculative assets as a way to catch up, according to a survey.

‘Nearly a third of Gen Z said they were putting money into sports betting and prediction markets. 8 of 10 of those young investors believed these riskier vehicles can get them to where they want to be more quickly than if they used traditional investment methods.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Even the stock market hates losing an hour of sleep...
“Since 1998 the S&P 500 has produced an average loss of 0.30% in the Monday session following the time change, compared with +0.03% on all other days of the calendar.” – Mark Hulbert
buff.ly/qiBMbwa