Knife crime! Pronouns! Meat bans! Some political issues lead to "hotter", more emotional and polarizing debates than others. We show how these "trigger points" reveal a contested structure of moral expectations and how they get weaponized by polarization entrepreneurs. OA @bjsociology.bsky.social 🧵
This is a really interesting article. All of it has lessons, but the part that really struck me is the way populist culture war issues weren't tackled head on, but were instead effectively dismissed as far less relevant or important to people than issues of corruption and public service decline.
Do protests change elections?
Prior research: "yes, and dramatically so."
But is that always true? What about protests in the last few years?
Our latest working paper challenges prevailing logic.
Our finding: most recent protests have failed to do anything to influence elections.
Much of the coverage of the Hungarian election has focused on Orbán. We know less about the strategy behind Péter Magyar’s and Tisza’s breakthrough. I’ve written a short piece for @ecprtheloop.bsky.social on why this challenge succeeded.
🚨 New paper in the @apsrjournal.bsky.social:
Nils-Christian Bormann and I propose to model the electoral effects of ethnic and other cleavages with a new *Covoting Regression Model*. A short on the method and our results on ethnic voting in Sub-Saharan Africa. doi.org/10.1017/S000...
It's weird that all these accounts I follow for other reasons (US politics, international politics, UK, etc.) are posting about Hungary. You gotta give it to Orban, he made HU "interesting" -- in a bad way. I am looking forward to HU going back being an obscure, boring, normal country.
Reuters says Tisza has at least 135 seats: 133 is the constitutional supermajority!
Live by highly disproportional electoral systems (which Orbán made even more disproportional with the extra compensation votes awarded to winners), die by highly disproportional electoral systems.
Orbán congratulated Magyar. It's really a historic moment.
Periodic reminder: this isn’t just an election. It’s either a popular uprising against Orbán or an authoritarian mobilization to keep him in power. (And it can absolutely be both.)
In the last year and a half, pollsters in Hungary have developed parallel realities. On the eve of the elections the chasm between Fidesz-affiliated pollsters and the others has widened more than ever. Via Gabor Toka: xcancel.com/PopuliIn/sta...
This article is the best summary I’ve seen so far of the institutional hurdles Tisza would face, even if it wins on Sunday.
tvpworld.com/92544224/hun...
(2) You are prob right about the comparison with other EPP parties, but in the HU context is the most centrist among all right-wing parties (Tisza<Fidesz<Mi Hazánk). True, he didn't campaign with LGBTQI+ rights, but one of his slogans has been that under a Tisza gov anyone can love whoever they want
(1) You literally write "Considering the challenges Magyar will encounter if he is elected, not to mention his own rightwing ideology, it seems unlikely that he would prioritise restoring liberal democracy to Hungary beyond trying to undo 16 years of Orbánism"
The article states more than that, e.g.,: "Even if Tisza’s vote share translates into a majority in parliament and enables it to implement reforms, democrats should not expect too much from a Magyar government." It goes on to argue that MP's ideology is anti-lib-democratic because he is center-right
Point taken. But I'm still not sure why he would be anti-lib-dem. Key promises he made:
- return to a prop. electoral system
- term limits for PMs for 8 yrs (including for Orbán)
- joining the European Public Prosecutor's Office
- reforming the public media service
I could go on; it's a long list.
Thanks for having the election on your radar! At the same time, you might want to take note of the highly salient electoral promises MP made on restoring institutional checks and balances, before you declare him anti-democratic on account of being on the centre-right. Also, it's Viktor, not Victor.
Job vacancy announcement for a postdoctoral position at the University of Vienna Department of Government, starting August/September 2026. Research focus includes political representation, party competition, political institutions, political economy, political behavior, or related fields. Application deadline: 29 April 2026. Full details are also available through the shared link.
🚨 Job Alert 🚨
We have an opening for a 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗱𝗼𝗰 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 @stawi-univie.bsky.social starting Aug/Sep 2026!
Focus: political representation, party competition, political institutions, political economy, political behavior, or related fields
📅Apply by 29 April 2026
jobs.univie.ac.at/job/Universi...
Very happy to see this project published in Nature 😊
We contributed with replicating Manekin & Mitts 2022: Effective for Whom? Ethnic Identity and Nonviolent Resistance with Jan Fabian Dollbaum, and Jan Matti Dollbaum.
We also wrote up those specific results here: ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/i4rdps...
Congratulations Alex!!! I am looking forward to seeing you more 😊
Some exciting news: I'm heading back to Europe! In April, I'll be starting a three-year fellowship at the University of Bremen. I will be hosted in the research group of the amazing @sophiahunger.bsky.social, working on wrapping up my first book on identity and writing my second on democracy.
Can Péter Magyar win a deeply rigged election? Would Orbán leave power—and would anything change even if he did? How did we even get here, and why, against all odds, do we still cling to hope? I wrote up my (admittedly messy) thoughts ahead of April 12
brettoninthewoods.substack.com/p/can-hungar...
For all new SciLove authors: If you want your articles to get a little more engagement: Simply import publications via ORCID and then hit share.
Shamelessly, this is what this looks like for a recent paper with @norawaitkus.bsky.social #openaccess
www.scilove.app/article/10.1...
Also finding it hard to keep up with new research? I built something to fix this.
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Excited to present ongoing work with Koen Damhuis, @mlamont.bsky.social and @stephanieternullo.bsky.social at the @weatherheadcenter.bsky.social tonight. We map the cultural dynamics underpinning core trends in contemporary working class politics. Get in touch if you want to talk about these themes.
🔎 Using survey field experiments around Fridays for Future protests in Germany, we show that large protest turnout boosts perceived movement efficacy, even if it does not immediately change climate attitudes or vote intentions.
🔔 Happy to share our new paper in npj Climate Action on the effects of major climate protests on politically interested bystanders, co-authored with David Schieferdecker, @jacobsenjannes.bsky.social, @swenhutter.bsky.social, and Jule Specht.
👉 www.nature.com/articles/s44...
My first publication is out in @wepsocial.bsky.social , with @lennartschuermann.bsky.social ✨ We analyze how protest increases before different types of elections. We show crucial differences in how civil society and parties prioritize elections in a multilevel system. doi.org/10.1080/0140...
muse.jhu.edu/verify?url=%...
💸🚨I am hiring 2 Postdocs for my ERC-funded project SOCDEBT on #debt dynamics across countries. One position: #SocialStratification + strong quantitative skills. The other: qualitative research and #EconomicSociology. waitkus.github.io/SOCDEBT/ 🚨💸
NEW PUBLICATION
“How the Media Cordon Sanitaire Crumbles: Lessons from Germany” now out in @prxjournal.bsky.social
🔓 doi.org/10.1080/2474736X.2026.2621808
I’m very happy that this paper is out – this project is particularly important to me.