Deutschland braucht Reformen. Doch die Deutschen haben keine Lust darauf, und die Politik verliert sich in Kulturkämpfen. Wer etwas bewegen will, muss anders rangehen.
Mein FAS-Kommentar: www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
LOL
A screenshot of an illustrated book saying: "Would you rather... jump into nettles for five dollars, ... swallow a dead frog for twenty dollars, or stay all night in a creepy house for fifty dollars?"
Nobody:
Economists using stated preferences:
in a nutshell,
Which economy is more productive - Germany or the US? It seems the answer would be clear, but it's not.
The mood in Germany is so deeply negative, even aggressively pessimistic, that I thought we had fallen behind by a lot. But here are the facts - they surprised me as well:
The death toll is now higher than Tiananmen Square or October 7th and Iran is barely news. Not trending here, a bit more but also little on X, scroll down the feed to #9 on NYT
Gemini-3 got this wrong 5/5 times...
(But this might just be reduced reasoning budgets at launch or something)
Screenshot of working paper: The Consequences of Faculty Sexual Misconduct
📣 New NBER Working Paper out today 📣
"The Consequences of Faculty Sexual Misconduct"
Sarah Cohodes & Katherine Leu
New @nberpubs: "The Economic Impact of Brexit" www.nber.org/papers/w34459
"by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time." 😲
Unlike the other models used, Kimi K2 Thinking is freely available. The other models, Gemini 2.5 Pro and GPT-5 Extended Thinking, are only available through a $20 monthly subscription. So overall, Kimi K2 seems like a pretty big deal to me. (I didn’t test GPT-5 Pro, since it costs $200 per month)
Sometimes the LLMs gave wrong equilibria, sometimes they wrongly claimed that there were no new equilibria at all. The inconsistency across all three models is annoying, but that’s just part of working with LLMs, I suppose 🤷♂️
The paper is on algorithmic game theory, where I modify existing games in a specific way and examine whether new equilibrium outcomes emerge under the modified framework. I provided each model with a simple numerical example and asked whether new equilibrium outcomes arise.
Another DeepSeek moment? Moonshot AI, a Chinese lab, released its new (open source!) model K2 Thinking, outperforming OpenAI et al. on several benchmarks. I tested it with a question from an unpublished paper of mine. Out of 5 tries, Kimi, GPT-5 and Gemini 2.5 Pro each replied correctly 3 times!
AI Purity Test The AI Purity Test is a voluntary self-assessment developed by Tina Tarighian. It provides participants with a structured opportunity to reflect on the evolution of their interactions with artificial intelligence over time. Caution: this is not a bucket list. Completion of all items on this test will likely result in death. Your score: 67
chat, is this good?
I scored 67 on the AI purity test.
post your scores:
https://aipuritytest.org
An interesting debate between Emily Bender and Sebastien Bubeck: www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtIQ... ---Emily's thesis is roughly summarized as: "LLMs extrude plausible sounding text, and the illusion of understanding comes entirely from how the listener's human mind interprets language. "
Dieses Streitgespräch zwischen @clemensfuest.bsky.social und @suedekum.bsky.social in der @zeit.de sollte man in Vorlesungen und Proseminaren zur Theorie der Wirtschaftspolitik durchnehmen. Sehr gutes Lehrmaterial, for the good and the bad. Ein 🧵:
🧪 A new computer science conference, Agents4Science, will feature papers written and peer-reviewed entirely by AI agents. The event serves as a sandbox to evaluate the quality of machine-generated research and its review process.
#MLSky
I’ve decided not to post my annual “women on the Econ job market” thread this year. Social media has splintered too much, and now that I’ve left academia I’m focused on other priorities.
Joel Mokyr at the 2011 conference in his honour at Northwestern.
Elated at Joel Mokyr's Nobel Prize! You can find numerous accounts -now multiplying by the minute- of his scholarly contributions. Today I want to celebrate the man and the mentor.
I don't think people have updated enough on the capability gain in LLMs, which (despite being bad at math a year ago) now dominate hard STEM contests: gold medals in the International Math Olympiad, the International Olympiad on Astronomy & Astrophysics, International Informatics Olympiad...
These results are somewhat at odds with the mistakes Gpt and Gemini keep making when working on my proofs. I have the $20 subscription though, could that be the reason?
Sora hit 1M downloads faster than ChatGPT
#MLSky
techcrunch.com/2025/10/09/s...
How over- and underrepresented are different causes of death in the media?
Another way to visualize this data is to measure how over- or underrepresented each cause is.
To do this, we calculate the ratio between a cause’s share of deaths and its share of news articles.
The other day a student asked me about the prevalence of insider trading in prediction markets. I now have an answer.
Wohl nicht. Any suggestions?
The best post I’ve seen on Bluesky in a very long time! Brilliant idea and brilliant accounts out there !
Back in graduate school, Paul Milgrom asked me to examine a published paper from 1984 by another person that he suspected had an incorrect proof. I found the error. I decided to see if LLMs could. Only Gemini 2.5 Pro did so. Claude Opus and GPT-5-pro found no significant errors.
Income Effect: Analyst become more productive -> hire more
Substitution Effect: Fewer analysts are needed per project -> hire less.
Both effects exist, it’s TBD which dominates.
If a job is fully automated (AI can do all tasks), employment should def. fall (think Waymo replacing Uber drivers).
I think it does help! AI today mainly augments labor: AI substitutes some tasks that analysts do, but not all. Analysts are more productive now. Does their employment rise? Depends on Income vs. Substitution effects:
