CCA Increment 1 mockups

Zone 5 Rusty Dagger. #AffordableMass

As captured by @CCFOC1, #AIM260 GS equipped a/c can be seen flying alongside a F35 on May 9. Both aircraft are participating in exercise Black Flag 25. Black Flag is an operational test-focused ex. that evaluates the suitability of emerging capabilities & tactics in operationally relevant scenarios

For those who may have missed my prior #AIM260 #JATM thread -

bsky.app/profile/mil-...

CRJ700_N804X_2021-04-28-3

I should clarify, this is 'my first/closest look' of JATM GS. There's plenty of publicly available imagery of the AIM-260 guidance section going back several years. None of it surfaced in the media at the time even though it was openly available.

Another from 2021 -
www.flickr.com/photos/jetma...

Our closest look at the AIM-260 #JATM guidance section yet. Quite a contrast to the AMRAAM with a much pointier radome and the almost non existent fins. Also distinct are the two sets of apertures covering the diameter of the section (presumably a multi-band targeting device). 📸 Colin Clark CCFOC1

While we have had acknowledgement of QF-16 FSAT flights to support development of the AIM-260A JATM going as far back as 2018-19, this most recent US Navy social media post appears to provide the first glimpse into #JATM - F/A-18 Super Hornet integration and test activities.

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AIM-260A live-fire testing on the F/A18 E/F is well underway giving further indication that #JATM is close to becoming, if not already, operational. USN recently recognized an officer with its Air Test & Eval Squadron 31 for leading #JATM live-fire testing back in 2024.

That’s the mother of all mission creeps. JATM needs to be a better to significantly better AIM to defeat LO and ECM equipped threats at greater ranges than AMRAAM. That’s its purpose.

Neither of those are its intended targets. It is replacing the Aim-120

You can see the targeting devices are pretty prominently featured on the missile graphic just set of the seeker.

It’s also confirmed to be largely of similar size to the AMRAAM so a 12 ft length and 7 dis is pretty much certain.

Us Navy

This combination of a low drag design (relative to AIM-120 etc), more advanced propulsion, and more volume for propellant should give JATM a significantly greater range (more importantly NEZ and endgame performance) than the AIM-120D though other range limitations still apply.

Longer motor & ⬇️ drag may not be the only updates. USAF has been known to be researching focused lethality enhanced warheads that allows for controllable frag concentration. This may further ⬇️ weight allowing for weight parity with AMRAAM despite significantly ⬆️ propellant.

A longer SRM motor is not the only thing going on with the JATM design shared in the graphic. It appears to be optimized for low drag. This would translate to ⬆️ performance relative to the AIM-120 for equivilant propellant/motor performance leaving even more in reserve.

If we assume JATM has same drag of AMRAAM, and has a multi-pulse SRM with first pulse that consumes a similar amount of propellant, JATM would be able to obtain similar perf as AMRAAM while still maintaining > 1/3 (even adj. for more prop weight) of AIM120s propellent in reserve.

Assuming JATM shares the 12 foot length of the AMRAAM, the SRM could be approximately 66 in - 70 in long. This puts it between 45% and 50% of the overall length of the weapon (LM's PAC3 MSE is 48%) and approximately 15-20 in longer than AIM-120. This should allow 30-40% more propellent.

Now that we know what #JATM looks like, some impressions 👇

🔸Significant ⬆️ in Solid Rocket Motor length vs AMRAAM (45%- 50 % of total length)

🔸Low drag wingless design w/o forward aero surfaces. Similar to early AMRAAM proposals from Raytheon & Northrop

🔸Multiple conformal antennas aft of seeker

US Air Force's Next Generation Air Dominance Software Factory has been recognized by the Department of Defense with a software innovation award. #NGAD SFT has managed and delivered a classified software & digital infrastructure portfolio..for the $22.4 Bn NGAD and CCA programs.

Back in 2020, the US Navy's Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division asked industry for multiple 16 inch diameter / 106 in long Solid Fuel Ramjet & IRR propulsion systems to support a 'demonstration program'. The Navy hasn't released much additional info on that effort.

"Epirus will soon host a live demonstration to showcase its advanced #HPM #Leonidas counter-drone capabilities, including a "100-drone shoot down" that aims to display the company's ability to neutralize a swarm of UAS with a single, coordinated strike"

insidedefense.com/daily-news/e...

"Th US Navy's Next Generation Air Dominance #NGAD Family of Systems (FoS) ICD [Initial Capabilities Document] was approved by the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) in Spring 2015 and validated by the Joint Staff in summer 2015" ~ US Navy

For reference, by FY27, the CCA R&D bill will exceed what the Air Force plans to spend on development of F-35 C2D2 / modernization which is expected to fall from about $1.2 Bn a year today to $980 MM in FY29. In Contrast, CCA R&D will exceed $1.5 Bn by FY27 and $3 Bn by FY28.

Collaborative Combat Aircraft are expected to be cheap and 'attritable' elements of #NGAD FoS. While they may be cheap to buy & operate, the autonomy, and other elements of CCA's will not be cheap to develop. USAF intends to spend $3 Bn in FY28 on CCA RDT&E vs $4 Bn for PCA👇

Suffice to say that the 2023 RFP that was shared with industry included lessons learnt from a decade of tech dev, maturation & RR. Exiting TMRR & entering source selection/EMD is a big milestone.

NGAD FoS:
🔸Has a huge R&D bill ($7-10 Bn / year (peak))
🔸Expensive manned PCA

For those who may question the fidelity of estimates, note that we've been investing in the system since 2014- 2 years after we took delivery of last F-22A. Demonstrators were in the budget by 2014, and contracts awarded in 2016 and flying by 18/19. NGAP funded starting 2018.

Assuming the $300 MM #NGAD PCA estimate (shared by Frank Kendall) is in 2018/20$, you are looking at a 30-50% ⬆️ unit cost for #NGAD compared to F-22A (adj for same year $) . Folks forget that in FY07, the fly-away and weapon system unit cost of F-22A exceeded $130MM & $170MM respectively.

And while I don't think either the AF/DOD, or the incoming administration & Congress would be comfortable lifting the veil of secrecy on #NGAD quite yet, it is possible that some other classified capability is accelerated & shared. t.co/5Hn01an9NB Via @thedewline.bsky.social