In today's Weekly WX:
- Snowfall for Lower Delmarva
- Brutal Cold Saturday
- Above Freezing Tuesday?
- More Below Freezing Temps Mid-Week & Beyond
Later Today On Facebook & YouTube!
With that I will say this - *EVERYTHING -TRACK, TIMING & TYPE - IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE*. Chances are, knowing how forecasting winter weather is, things likely will.
What I can tell you about right now is that both major models - the GFS (American) & the EURO - are correlating in the system moving more to the east, with only our most eastern counties (Somerset, Wicomico, Worcester) impacted & considerable totals being confined to areas along the Atlantic coast.
Let's talk about the elephant in the room.
There have been rumblings of another snowstorm coming this upcoming weekend.
Please stay bundled up & limit time outside if you must venture out!
#MDWX #MarylandWX #MarylandWeather #BaltimoreWeather #BaltimoreWX #KLWX #410WX
For Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset & Worcester counties, this will go until 10am tomorrow. Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot & Caroline counties are under the advisory until 10am Wednesday. Wind chill values could be as cold as -5°F to the south & -18F° by early tomorrow as well!
Everybody else is under a Cold Weather Advisory. For Central & Southern Maryland, Cecil County, Washington County & the Eastern two-thirds of Allegany County, this will go through 11am tomorrow.
Extreme Cold Warning for Garrett & Far Western Allegany Counties until 11AM tomorrow morning. Wind chill values could be as cold as -25°F by early tomorrow morning. Frostbite to exposed skin in these conditions could happen in as little as 20-30 minutes!
Live Stream Starting At 1PM on YouTube . Updates on the ongoing winter storm, power outage updates, and a look at the very cold snap coming next week.
Good morning, everyone, the 06z (1am EST) model runs have come in for both the GFS & EURO models. Both are showing stronger correlation to the north & are lining up well as of now.
What does that mean? Higher snow totals possible. Of course, anything is subject to change.
TLDR: Model runs between both major computer models have fluctuated substantially since Sunday, and therefore there is a lot of uncertainty regarding totals. If any precipitation falls, it be very much cold enough to be snow statewide, but how much can not be forecasted with confidence just yet.
New model runs should come in later this evening, and I will observe for any consistencies or changes. (9/9)
The mid-morning run today moved the track back south, and can you guess what this afternoon's run did? Took the track back north once again.
This lack of consistency in the models is why I am not putting out preliminary totals until at earliest, Thursday. (8/9)
The GFS runs have greatly fluctuated in track. Sunday & early yesterday's model runs took the track mainly to the south. The model runs late yesterday took the line of fire back north towards Maryland. (7/9)
The European Computer Model runs the last two days had the system track with the highest snowfall towards southern Maryland and into Virginia. Today's runs so far have had the track move more north, with big totals within both of our metropolitan zones - think 10"+ of snow. (6/9)
Both of the major global models used - the American (GFS) & the European (EURO) have been very inconsistent with the track of the upcoming system. Granted, other models are used to find correlation or agreeance, but these are the, "Big 2", so to speak. (5/9)
But notice how I said *if* as it pertains to the track and timing. The exact timing is an uncertainty and the track is the ultimate wildcard in this cruel game of weather UNO. (4/9)
A strong cold front usher in another blast of cold air for this weekend, not quite as cold as the last two days though. This will ensure that everyone will see some form of winter precipitation, but mainly snow. (3/9)
In winter storm systems, there are three aspects in which I call "T-Factors" - Type, Track, Timing. The type, if the other two were to come to fruition, is essentially set in stone for the state. (2/9)
Good evening, all. This latest winter storm threat has a lot of people's attention, and rightfully so. With that said, I will not be putting out any preliminary accumulation forecasts until Thursday at the earliest. (1/9)
Big line of severe storms approaching metro within the hour. Be weather aware!!
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 9PM for most of Maryland.
Weather Service in Sterling now adding a considerable tag with this storm in AA county.
Golf Ball sized hail & 70 MPH wind gusts are possible.
GET INDOORS NOW!
Strong to severe storms entering into Metro Baltimore now. Be on the lookout for damaging winds, torrential rain & pea - nickel sized hail.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for far southern Baltimore City, northern Anne Arundel County, northern PG County, southern Howard County until 2:30PM
The new GFS run is just as, if not even more stingy than previous runs, keeping any notable snow totals well south of US-50 & essentially along the Potomac River.
Metro areas may end up with a dusting at most.
Weather headlines for the week:
We do have a warmup in progress that will continue through Wednesday.
Cold front will pass through Thursday, resulting in temperatures being cut a good 5-10 degrees.
Our next system will arrive Friday and bring a chance at precipitation. Cooler weekend ahead.
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