Advertisement · 728 × 90

Posts by Afshon Ostovar

Video

How did a Yemeni militia become one of Tehran's most powerful proxies? @osto.bsky.social and @thomasjuneau.bsky.social analyze the rise of the Houthis on the latest episode of The Iran Reckoning. (Members Only)

Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

5 months ago 5 4 0 1

It was great to talk Iran-Houthi ties - background, their evolution more recently, the consequences of growing Houthi power - with Afshon @osto.bsky.social:

5 months ago 12 4 0 0
Video

"Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has become more than a military force. In the latest episode of The Iran Reckoning, Afshon (@osto.bsky.social) and Yeganeh Torbati (@yjtorbati.bsky.social) unpack their growing role in the economy.

Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep..."

8 months ago 6 4 0 0

New episode of the pod just dropped. Really enjoyed this conversation with Gregory Brew. Lucid and fascinating discussion on oil, politics, and the shadowy art of trade under sanctions

8 months ago 2 0 0 0
Post image

Look what just arrived! By some of the absolute best in their fields: Stéphane Lacroix, @musaalgharbi.bsky.social and @osto.bsky.social

8 months ago 3 3 1 0
Video

Behind the warheads — Afshon Ostovar (@osto.bsky.social‬) and Fabian Hinz explore how politics, partnerships, and pressure shaped Iran’s missile ambitions.

Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

8 months ago 0 2 0 0
Preview
Iran’s forever crisis is far from over As a result of Israeli and American attacks, the Islamic Republic’s problems have only intensified. Its next steps could prove definitive for both the country and its ruling establishment.

Where does Iran go after the 12-day war? Can it restore deterrence? How much is it willing to risk in regaining some of its lost power & influence? Its options are limited and will test its commitment to self-reliance. My latest in @engelsbergideas.bsky.social

9 months ago 11 5 0 0
Advertisement
Preview
Iran’s forever crisis is far from over As a result of Israeli and American attacks, the Islamic Republic’s problems have only intensified. Its next steps could prove definitive for both the country and its ruling establishment.

Where does Iran go after the 12-day war? Can it restore deterrence? How much is it willing to risk in regaining some of its lost power & influence? Its options are limited and will test its commitment to self-reliance. My latest in @engelsbergideas.bsky.social

9 months ago 11 5 0 0
Preview
What Iran Wants Historian and podcaster Afshon Ostovar joins Faisal Al Yafai to discuss the ideology and strategy of Iran.

Had an engaging, wide-ranging conversation with @faisalalyafai.bsky.social on Iran—what motivates its politics, what complicates its politics, and why it can be both a joy and a misery to cover. Many thanks to @newlinesmag.bsky.social for putting it together

newlinesmag.com/podcast/what...

9 months ago 5 3 0 0

For you, Brian, I’ll make sure of it.

9 months ago 1 0 0 0

There’ll be loads. War won’t make this podcast.

9 months ago 1 0 0 0

We’re doing a thing

9 months ago 12 5 2 0
Preview
How Iran Lost Tehran’s hard-liners squandered decades of strategic capital and undermined deterrence.

Excellent analysis by @osto.bsky.social: “Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished.”

www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/...

10 months ago 5 1 0 0
Preview
How Iran Lost Tehran’s hard-liners squandered decades of strategic capital and undermined deterrence.

The regional status quo that Iran established over the past three decades is finished—and it is now clear that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have lost their decades-long conflict with Israel, argues @osto.bsky.social.

10 months ago 28 13 2 1
Preview
How Iran Lost Tehran’s hard-liners squandered decades of strategic capital and undermined deterrence.

Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished. — My latest in @foreignaffairs.com

10 months ago 40 14 3 0

APNewsAlert: DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Israeli strikes on #Iran have killed at least 639 people and wounded 1,329 others, a human rights group says.

10 months ago 10 9 2 0
Advertisement
Preview
How Iran Lost Tehran’s hard-liners squandered decades of strategic capital and undermined deterrence.

Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished. — My latest in @foreignaffairs.com

10 months ago 40 14 3 0
Preview
Israel’s Attacks Leave Iran’s Supreme Leader Exposed—With No Good Options Tehran’s bruising fight with Israel has left its military weakened and unable to respond in kind to Israeli attacks

The intelligence apparatus that has kept Khamenei in power for 4 decades is crumbling around him. He will spend the autumn of his life fighting to salvage the Islamic Republic.

"The ship that he stewarded has run aground,” @osto.bsky.social told me

My story:

www.wsj.com/world/middle... #iran

10 months ago 10 3 0 0

@osto.bsky.social: "It’s a huge blow. It’s eviscerated a brain trust that has led Iran’s strategy for the last 20 years...It’s like taking out the bulk of your national security council...Khamenei is much more alone now than he was yesterday."

10 months ago 6 5 0 0
Preview
Iran’s Military Arsenal Against Israel As Iran strikes back at Israel after an unprecedented attack on Tehran’s nuclear operations, WSJ explains Iran’s military capabilities and strategy.

Some thoughts on the outbreak of war between Iran and Israel, and what it could mean going forward. Really appreciated this conversation with Jordan Kranse and @wsj.com

www.wsj.com/video/series...

10 months ago 3 2 0 0
Preview
Iran’s Military Just Lost Its ‘Brain Trust’ Israeli strikes killed several of Iran’s top military commanders.

Iran lost several top military commanders to Israeli strikes in the past 24 hours. To get a better sense of what these losses mean for Iran and the region, I spoke with @osto.bsky.social, a leading expert on Iran's military who wrote a book on the IRGC's history. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/13/i...

10 months ago 4 2 0 1
Preview
Iran is rethinking its Houthi strategy The Iranian regime is under intense strain. The collapse of its proxy network in Syria, Israel’s evisceration of Hezbollah and Hamas, and US President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure campaign have all...

Iran is not abandoning the Houthis. If anything, the Houthis are more vital to Tehran than they’ve ever been. My latest in @unherd.com

1 year ago 13 5 0 0
Preview
Iran is rethinking its Houthi strategy The Iranian regime is under intense strain. The collapse of its proxy network in Syria, Israel’s evisceration of Hezbollah and Hamas, and US President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure campaign have all...

Iran is not abandoning the Houthis. If anything, the Houthis are more vital to Tehran than they’ve ever been. My latest in @unherd.com

1 year ago 13 5 0 0

Very cool! Congratulations, Sam!

1 year ago 4 2 0 0
Preview
Wars of Ambition (S. 14, Ep. 3) - Project on Middle East Political Science On this week’s episode of the podcast, Afshon Ostovar of the Naval Postgraduate School joins Marc Lynch to discuss his new book, Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Mid...

It was a real pleasure to sit down with @abuaardvark.bsky.social and @pomeps.bsky.social for a wide ranging discussion on my new book, Iran’s current political crisis, and shifting US policy pomeps.org/wars-of-ambi...

1 year ago 6 1 0 0
Preview
Iran’s Baha’is face escalating persecution amid crackdown: What to know The United Nations has expressed concern over persecution of Baha'is in Iran as arrests mount.

Iran’s Baha’is face escalating persecution amid crackdown: What to know
www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

1 year ago 1 3 0 0
Advertisement
Preview
Wars of Ambition (S. 14, Ep. 3) - Project on Middle East Political Science On this week’s episode of the podcast, Afshon Ostovar of the Naval Postgraduate School joins Marc Lynch to discuss his new book, Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Mid...

Has Iran suffered a strategic defeat, or is it just a setback? What does its regional presence look like today - and how did it get there? My podcast this weeks talks to the great Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social about his new book Wars of Ambition

pomeps.org/wars-of-ambi...

1 year ago 7 1 0 0
Preview
Wars of Ambition (S. 14, Ep. 3) - Project on Middle East Political Science On this week’s episode of the podcast, Afshon Ostovar of the Naval Postgraduate School joins Marc Lynch to discuss his new book, Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Mid...

It was a real pleasure to sit down with @abuaardvark.bsky.social and @pomeps.bsky.social for a wide ranging discussion on my new book, Iran’s current political crisis, and shifting US policy pomeps.org/wars-of-ambi...

1 year ago 6 1 0 0
Preview
Books of the Year 2024 Contributors to Engelsberg Ideas highlight the books they’ve enjoyed in 2024.

Very honored to see Wars of Ambition make this list and be among such illustrious company

1 year ago 3 0 0 0

There is much that is unclear about Iran’s decisions over the last week. Iran has abandoned the revolution’s life’s work without a fight. There is little chance that such an extreme external collapse occured without severe turmoil inside the regime. This story is far from over.

1 year ago 28 7 3 0