Often see the assumption that although Labour is losing more voters to the centre-left than the right nationwide, the opposite must be true in the north of England. In fact, the only region it's true is Scotland. It's not 2019 any more!

Labour promised change but voters are doubtful after watching Labour in power.

48% think they will make things worse over next few years

Just 21% think they’ll make things better.

This mood isn’t confined to Reform voters.

61% of Labour voters
69% of Lib Dems
79% of Greens
84% of Conservatives
92% of Reform voters

For anyone who runs focus groups, this won’t be a surprise.

Voters often say “nothing works anymore.”

It’s less about one crisis than a sense of systems failing - I find often expressed most vividly in the decline of local high streets, used as a metaphor for the country as a whole.

Three in four Britons now say the country is “broken.”

33% say “completely broken”
44% say “somewhat broken”
Just 19% think Britain is working well

‘They broke it, and they can’t fix it’ - A perception of broken Britain is fuelling Reform’s surge The single best explanation for Reform’s surge is also the simplest: the belief that Britain is "broken" - and a feeling that neither established party is capable of fixing it.

New Substack post using fresh polling for The i:

77% (!!) of Britons now say the country is “broken.”

I argue that single stat is best explanation of Reform’s record 35% vote share in our latest poll.

🧵👇

open.substack.com/pub/robertst...

UK (GB), BMG Research poll:

REFORM~NI: 35% (+3)
LAB-S&D: 20% (-3)
CON~ECR: 17% (-1)
LDEM-RE: 13%
GREENS-G/EFA: 7% (-1)
SNP-G/EFA: 2%
PC-G/EFA: 1%

+/- vs. 29-31 July 2025

Fieldwork: 26-28 August 2025
Sample size: 1,504

➤ europeelects.eu/uk

UK: Nigel Farage's right-wing Reform UK has reached 35% in the most recent BMG Research poll. This is the highest that the party has ever polled since it was founded in 2018.

➤ http://europeelects.eu/uk