#3: Attritional competition; supply increase from US and Australia, forces Qatar to a price competition
Reading it, I could only think of Iran and it's lost potentials
#qatar #iran #security #energysecurity #europeanunion #cleanenergytransition #LNG
⏩Qatar’s energy diplomacy prospect scenarios?
#1: maintaining current status by increasing capacity and solidifying contracts
#2: energy transition pressure and EU demand reduction, forcing it to exit EU, redirecting to African and Latin American markets with flexible contracts
⚡️Further investments in solar energy, carbon capture and methane emission reduction turned Qatar into one of the clean energy transitioning countries
🌏Europe’s Green Deal by 2050 provided opportunity for Qatar to build ports, ships, terminals, creating LNG logistics chain dependency, knowing EU's LNG demand will be reducing
🇧🇪Geopolitically also leveraging Qatar’s presence in Brussels
🪖Post Russia-Ukraine war, it became one of the important gas suppliers, ensuring security, due to stability of supply, multi decade contracts
Key takeaways:
🥉By investment in infrastructure and liquefaction, Qatar became one of world’s top LNG exporters
⛽️They use North Field natural gas reservoir (shared geographically with Iran, located in Persian Gulf)
🇶🇦🇪🇺⛽️:Global security; energy security;
Fantastic analysis by Abed Akbari, European Affairs Analyst: Qatar’s Sustainable Energy Diplomacy Model
Follow up to Qatar’s recent threat of LNG supply withdrawal from EU markets:
x.com/abedakbari/s...
#5. In collaboration with local financial institutions, creating banking sub-plans in collaboration with war insurers.
#6. Mandatory corporate offices stocking with food, equipment and devices for survival for a period of time
CC:
@henrikroonemaa.bsky.social
#3: What demographics are at risk? focusing the pamphlets and information campaigns for their preparation
#4. Wide scale mandatory trainings (e.g. first aid, digital resilience training - surviving without any digital devices/internet)
#2: What type of warfare could #Estonia face? that takes priority in preparation (current hysteria is of tankers rolling in from #Narva which is costly and strategically counterproductive for adversary, but preparing for disruptions in banking services is much more realistic)
Some suggestions:
#1: key is in researching the current consensus for war mentality among #Estonians. For example if war aversion is widespread and majority refrain from discussing it, then approach should be cautious.
Is it #fearmongering to discuss possible escalation and prepare for worst case scenario, especially with compassion fatigue setting in? (urgency)
BUT
how to ensure increased budget allocation to #defense, with already reduced purchasing power, won't lead to public retaliation? (consent)
🇪🇪🪖Global #security; #strategic studies:
Balancing the urgency for #militarization vs. manufacturing consent for militarization, especially in a peaceful state like #Estonia, can pave way for panic but also #disinformation/#misinformation
Islam has been part of Iranian history for a long period and it's current politicization, needs reinterpretation for successful integration into the new narrative.
The narrative of "preserving the revolution and it's sacrifices" is phasing out.
Iranian nationalism is on the rise, and so is the unity.
I do believe the new narrative needs to not only take Iranian rich history, culture and it's other roots integrated into it, but Islam as well.
#PoliticalShowerThoughts:
State's main concern is survival. So is people's.
How do you balance this pragmatically in a state like #Iran?
Iran's regime's threat is external and internal.
People's threat is regime and external.
Common threat is external.
October 27, #NationalMentoringDay
Shout out to the mentors that ignited the fire in me. One that got me passionate about intelligence, security studies and Iranian foreign policy. It’s changing the trajectory of my life. Forever grateful to him ❤️
* Plans to develop "Combined Middle East Cyber Center” by end of 2026 and advocated for “Information Fusion Center” (military coordination/intel)
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
* US managed to integrate systems of the said states. Now information sharing between them is centralized
* 6/7 participating states are getting incomplete intel
* A US official said: this system is focused on Iran that's why it didn't detect Israel's strike on Qatar
* “propagate [a] partner narrative of regional prosperity and cooperation.” - one document says about Iran's stance in Gulf region
* Docs include: Powerpoint slides, map of weapons in Gaza, intel on tunnels (combat method of Hamas), trainings and meetings part of the construct
* Created 3 years ago, to combat Iran and its influence in the region
* Facilitated by Central Command (Centcom) of US
* Is not an alliance (according to one of the docs)
* Main point of the construct is to counter airstrikes of Iran
* Saudi Arabia is also providing intel
* Investigated by International Consortium of Investigative Journalists @icij.org released to Washington Post @washingtonpost.com
* It's called Regional Security Construct. #Bahrain, #Qatar, #Egypt, #Jordan, #Saudi Arabia, #UAE, #Israel, #US (says #Kuwait & #Oman as potential partners)
💥⚠️💥 Leaked documents confirming how #Arab states collabed with Israel & US, in #security against #Iran/#Hamas/regional threats - 12th Oct headline, Washington Post
One of the most intriguing developments of the region I recently read. Had to summarize it (also it's behind paywall)
👇🏽☝️🏽Melvin A. Goodman - senior fellow at the Center for International Policy and a professor of government at Johns Hopkins University
www.counterpunch.org/2025/09/09/t...
But Tulsi Gabbard for disagreement on Trump's Venezuela stance, fired 2 top officials from National Intelligence Council (NIC)
also intelligence community found that TdA gang has never been connected to drug trafficking and has no intention to invade or attack US.
Example given is how U.S. Navy sank a Venezuelan vessel recently, killing 11 people, saying they were members of the TdA gang controlled by Maduro and US intelligence saying there is no evidence of this linkage.
(#politicization) - although such course of action is nothing new (WMD - #Iraq case) but openly and without consequence is the difference.
But it makes sense since #Trump has repeatedly praised #Putin and Kim Jong Un. Their governance is also based on loyalism.
🔎⚠️ ♟️Global #security; intelligence/counterintelligence:
Intelligence services are mandated to simply provide intelligence (mainly on adversaries), regardless of who it serves but seems like #US #intelligence agencies are being used openly for Trump's confirmation bias or worse, cognitive dissonance
x.com/_arinasingh_ / medium.com/@arinasingh
5. Who should EU buy it from? Proposal exists that 65% of procurements should be EU based, though significant purchases have been made from 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇰🇷 (cheapter + NATO interoperable)
6. US politics
* Appointment of Andrius Kubilius as the commissioner for defense & space paved the way for EU defense talk