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Posts by Marcus C Sarofim

I wish that HR 7865 (giving tariff revenue directly back to citizens, rather than the importing businesses) was getting more traction. www.congress.gov/bill/119th-c... (much better than S 3905 which refunds importers and suggests they should pass on refunds to customers... yeah, that'll happen).

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Remember: before causing the price of oil to skyrocket, the Trump administration sabotaged the Post Office's electrification initiatives. Stupidity magnifying stupidity. www.markey.senate.gov/imo/media/do...

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Health, Environmental Groups Ask EPA to Reconsider Flawed, Unlawful Decision to Repeal the Endangerment Finding 16 health and environmental groups have filed a petition with the U.S. EPA outlining severe flaws in its rule to repeal the Endangerment Finding.

EDF has made the first formal, detailed objection to the EPA's Endangerment Finding repeal (that I am aware of) (as distinct from two lawsuits and counting, where briefs have yet not been submitted as far as I know): www.edf.org/media/health...

2 days ago 1 0 0 0

Well, Simon, they need to alleviate poverty in the US before they can alleviate it in the rest of the world.

And before alleviating poverty in the US, they need to make the economy strong.

And the only way to do that is to cut taxes on billionaires.

5 days ago 0 0 0 0

It is true that eventually we need separate targets because we need zero CO2 but not zero CH4. But in the near term, offering what, where, and when flexibility can theoretically allow for more efficient policy making.

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A quantitative approach to evaluating the GWP timescale through implicit discount rates Abstract. The 100-year global warming potential (GWP) is the primary metric used to compare the climate impacts of emissions of different greenhouse gases (GHGs). The GWP relies on radiative forcing rather than damages, assumes constant future concentrations, and integrates over a timescale of 100 years without discounting; these choices lead to a metric that is transparent and simple to calculate, but have also been criticized. In this paper, we take a quantitative approach to evaluating the choice of time horizon, accounting for many of these complicating factors. By calculating an equivalent GWP timescale based on discounted damages resulting from CH4 and CO2 pulses, we show that a 100-year timescale is consistent with a discount rate of 3.3 % (interquartile range of 2.7 % to 4.1 % in a sensitivity analysis). This range of discount rates is consistent with those often considered for climate impact analyses. With increasing discount rates, equivalent timescales decrease. We recognize the limitations of evaluating metrics by relying only on climate impact equivalencies without consideration of the economic and political implications of metric implementation.

Also, I have to plug my paper on gwps here: esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1...

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In addition to price based taxes (or cap and trade, which creates prices, or any other policy which creates implicit costs), there is also the issue of individual organizations making purchasing decisions and needing quick metrics to decide which option is better

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From Field to Framework Integrating Agriculture into Climate Damage Assessment

I have written about climate and agriculture in the context of developing damage functions open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...

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The Social Cost of Ozone‐Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions Increases in mortality attributable to ozone produced from methane are not currently considered in the government's social cost of methane Ozone from a 2020 methane emissions pulse results in 760...

...concentrate on CH4/o3 effects. The inclusion of CH4/O3 mortality (McDuffie 2023) doubles the SC-CH4. The inclusion of CH4/O3 ag (Sampedro 2023) adds another 50%. And the inclusion of CH4/O3 carbon cycle (Collins 2010, Unger 2020) would add 10% to the GWP100.

2 weeks ago 1 0 0 0

Hi Zeke! Unsurprisingly, I completely agree with your assessment of GWP20 v. GWP100.

If I was a proponent of more methane reduction, rather than arguing for GWP20 (which is equivalent to arguing for a 10% discount rate), I would... 1/2

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screenshot of a resignation letter expressing sadness at leaving NASA

screenshot of a resignation letter expressing sadness at leaving NASA

My resignation letter

3 weeks ago 3930 1017 80 85

I’m curious about the salary. I have to say, they do make it sound like an appealing position, down to the energy efficient campus…

1 month ago 3 0 0 0
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Understanding Drivers of American Deaths Lessons from the 1995 Chicago Heatwave and the 2020–2023 COVID Pandemic in the US

My latest post about the Chicago 1995 heatwave (timely with the ongoing southwest heatwave) and also the COVID pandemic. open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...

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A Comparison of Rhythm in English Dialects and Music Informal Observations have Often been Made That a country's language is reflected in its instrumental music. Limited research exists studying similarities between the rhythmic characteristics of Frenc...

You might be interested in this study that found relationships between speech & musical rhythm when comparing Irish, Scottish, and Kentucky musicians: online.ucpress.edu/mp/article-a...

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Environmental Injustice The harm that hides in averages

In this post, I address a subset of Environmental Justice issues and the recent Trump actions regarding them open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...

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How HR 5050 Changed Entrepreneurship For Women Before the passing of HR 5050: Women's Business Ownership Act of 1988, women entrepreneurs required to have a male co-signer for business loans.

Today I learned that women often couldn't own businesses by themselves until 1988 (www.forbes.com/sites/debora...). I already knew that they couldn't have a credit card without a male co-signer until 1974.

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For my nature communications piece, the editors had us use RC models to distinguish from regional models

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E.g., green is less than 0.1, blue is about -0.5, so the sum should be -0.4 (or even a bit more negative), but grey minus yellow looks like less the 0.3.

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Based on eyeballing, it looks to me like naively adding the grey (GHGs) to the green (natural) to the blue (aerosols) would actually yield a # below the yellow (total). Is my eyeball just wrong, or are there some non-linearities involved? (or is there another missing positive forcer?)

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Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models Abstract. Reduced-Complexity Models (RCMs) are a critical tool for synthesising climate science knowledge and providing climate projections for a wide range of emissions scenarios. The Reduced-Complex...

Interested in how peer review works? I reviewed a GMD paper on RCMIP3 (egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...). Open discussion journals let you see "under the hood." A very good paper means modest comments, but this can still show some of the value of peer review. Also, yay model intercomparison!

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Listening to Sean Donahue present on the EF on an ABA webinar… realizing that he is not the Sean Donahue who is EPA general counsel… reading the wiki on the latter… seeing damning analysis of his qualifications during confirmation… does this help explain the low quality of EPA legal actions?

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The war in Iran shows us another cost of our fossil-fuel economy our reliance on fossil fuels makes us less safe

Andy Dessler points out that reliance on fossil fuels is bad, not only for climate and for air pollution and mining waste, but also for energy security and military spending.
open.substack.com/pub/theclima...

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Redirecting...

Apologies for the Facebook link, but this is a cute video about anthropomorphized agencies talking about the Endangerment Finding www.facebook.com/share/r/1AXj...

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After a lawsuit, USDA agrees to share climate risk data with farmers Now, even if the webpages come down again, the data can remain public.

Another lawsuit victory. Though it is sad that it is necessary to sue to government to get access to data that taxpayers have already paid for. www.govexec.com/management/2...

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Congestion Pricing Wins in Court After Lengthy Battle With Trump

NYC congestion pricing wins in court - everything I've read about the program suggests that it is a huge success, so of course Trump hated it: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/n...

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OBITUARY: The DOE Climate Working Group Report, 2025–2026 it died in a footnote

On The Climate Brink, an obituary for the DOE Climate Working Group report

1 month ago 47 14 3 2
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One Month of Saraph 300 subscribers, one cute dog, and a preview of what’s coming

Happy 1 month (plus a bit) birthday to my substack: open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...

1 month ago 3 0 0 0

I certainly know that some people who have left government are able to get better pay in the private sector, and sometimes even at NGOs. I do worry that the perceived loss of job security will make government less appealing... and it would not surprise me if DOGE was a net cost.

1 month ago 1 0 0 0

Yes! Making this particularly important: hiring was slow and almost broken even before the Trump Administration, and given all the loss of HR staff and expertise, I imagine it will be even worse in a new administration.

1 month ago 1 0 1 0

2nd opinion, longer term: in the next administration, OPM should, as quickly as possible, make it as easy as possible for any former government employee who left service in the 5 years previous to rejoin government.

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