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Posts by The Aiming Circle

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Iraq in the Vice | International Crisis Group Despite declaring neutrality in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, Baghdad has been unable to keep Iraq out of the fray. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Lahib Higel explains how the conflict is harming ...

From my colleague Lahib Higel on the political and economic effects of the Iran war on Iraq. The war will likely reshape US-Iraq relations and may hasten plans for downgrading US military and diplomatic engagement.

www.crisisgroup.org/qna/middle-e...

12 hours ago 10 5 0 0
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How the Lebanon Ceasefire Could Make It Harder to End the War on Iran While a welcome reprieve from the bombing, the deal could allow Israel to make even more demands of Lebanon.

The deal is a welcome reprieve from Israel’s bombing — but separating Lebanon from the ceasefire with Iran sets a dangerous precedent.

10 hours ago 17 7 0 0
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Ukraine to simplify use of fiber-optic drones on front line Ukraine's defense ministry is testing a unified ground control station for fiber-optic drones, aiming to cut the number of incompatible systems troops carry to the front.

⚡️Ukraine to simplify use of fiber-optic drones on front line

Ukrainian troops will begin testing a new standard control station for fiber-optic drones as part of an effort to replace the mix of different controllers operators must carry to the front.

10 hours ago 198 27 3 2
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Boeing lands Chinook without a pilot at the controls Boeing used its A2X software to autonomously guide an Army CH-47 Chinook through its final approach and landing.

Boeing used its A2X software to autonomously guide an Army CH-47 Chinook through its final approach and landing.

10 hours ago 0 1 0 0
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After watchdog slams understaffing, AI to vet Pentagon-backed professors’ China ties AI’s confusion over the nature of DOD research partnerships may mask real espionage if humans are not the final judge of foreign influence, experts warn.

AI’s confusion over the nature of DOD research partnerships may mask real espionage if humans are not the final judge of foreign influence, experts warn.

10 hours ago 0 1 1 0
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America and Iran’s Long Road to Peace A grand bargain is out of reach, but a comprehensive deal is possible.

“There is a proverbial ‘sea of blood’ between the United States and Iran that makes compromise extremely challenging,” writes Seyed Hossein Mousavian. What will it take for Washington and Tehran to reach an agreement?

3 days ago 6 3 0 0
Cuba: The Bay of Pigs Invasion 65 Years Later
On 65th Anniversary, Archive Posts Selection of Key CIA and White House Records on Paramilitary Assault and Aftermath

JFK Considered Dismantling CIA After Failed Invasion

As U.S. Again Threatens Cuba, Bay of Pigs a “Cautionary History”

Cuba: The Bay of Pigs Invasion 65 Years Later On 65th Anniversary, Archive Posts Selection of Key CIA and White House Records on Paramilitary Assault and Aftermath JFK Considered Dismantling CIA After Failed Invasion As U.S. Again Threatens Cuba, Bay of Pigs a “Cautionary History”

The essential National Security Archive posts CIA & White House records on the anniversary of the disastrous US invasion of Cuba known as the Bay of Pigs invasion.

nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-boo...

3 days ago 4 2 0 0
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Iran says Strait of Hormuz ‘completely open;’ Trump says US blockade to continue Iran says commercial shipping may transit the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire, while President Trump says the U.S. naval blockade remains.

Iran announced that all commercial shipping traffic can pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the duration of the ceasefire, even as President Donald Trump said the U.S. naval blockade against Tehran will continue.

3 days ago 13 4 2 3
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Iran thinks it can hold because the U.S. will fold They do not have great cards, and they do not have more chips — but they think the U.S. hand is weaker than it looks and that Washington will fold first.

I always listen to Ray. He'll use venacular for an audience to understand, but don't think he's not a level or two deeper.

When we wrote the first JFOS scenario, Ray's team gave us better than DIA.

open.substack.com/pub/raygerbe...

3 days ago 5 2 0 0
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Lebanon: Israeli Bridge Attack a Potential War Crime The Israeli military’s destruction of the Qasmieh bridge on April 16, 2026 effectively cut off Lebanese territory south of the Litani river from the rest of the country.

“The Israeli military’s systematic & repeated attacks on bridges, which threaten to isolate civilians in southern Lebanon from access to means of survival, demonstrate a callous disregard for the welfare of the tens of thousands of people still living there." www.hrw.org/news/2026/04... #Lebanon

3 days ago 16 10 0 0

Got in a little hometown jam
So they put a rifle in my hand
Send me off to a foreign land
To go and eat the silver ham

4 days ago 2733 417 17 8
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AI Drafting My Stories? Over My Dead Body AI-assisted writing is creeping into newsrooms under the guise of efficiency. But the tradeoff may be more profound than publishers are willing to admit.

AI-assisted writing is creeping into newsrooms under the guise of efficiency. But the tradeoff may be more profound than publishers are willing to admit. www.wired.com/story/backch...

3 days ago 64 24 5 2
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Israeli cabinet 'secretly approves record number' of new West Bank settlements Report on i24NEWS reveals new settlements were approved during war on Iran but kept classified

36,000 Palestinians displaced in the West Bank last year by pogroms. 36 new settlements in this "secret" law. Over 100 new settlements since 2022. The total approved between 1993 and then? Six. www.middleeasteye.net/news/israeli...

1 week ago 3 3 0 0
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Türk condemns deadly wave of Israeli strikes on Lebanon GENEVA – UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk condemned on Wednesday the massive wave of Israeli strikes across Lebanon, saying reports that hundreds – including civilians – had been killed and injured are appalling.“The scale of the killing and destruction in Lebanon today is nothing short of horrific,” said the High Commissioner. “Such carnage, within hours of agreeing to a ceasefire with Iran, defies belief. It places enormous pressure on a fragile peace, which is so desperately needed by civilians.”

UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk condemned the massive wave of Israeli strikes across Lebanon, saying reports that hundreds – including civilians – had been killed and injured are appalling: www.ohchr.org/en/press-rel...

1 week ago 2 6 0 0

thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2...

A #review I did for Strategy Bridge. If you can get a physical copy, do so!

1 week ago 14 6 1 0
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THE PRICE OF STRATEGIC HUBRIS: HELL IN A VERY SMALL PLACE Bernard Fall’s classic Hell in a Very Small Place provides a haunting look at the 1954 siege of Dien Bien Phu, where French forces suffered a definitive defeat in Indochina. While France hoped to lure the Viet Minh into a fixed battle to disrupt supply lines, they tragically underestimated their opponent’s resolve and capabilities. Marshall McGurk examines how the Viet Minh successfully achieved tactical dominance, combined with a clear strategic goal of independence, allowed them to grind down the garrison over fifty-six days. Ultimately, the disaster stemmed from strategic hubris and a failure to align resources with reality. Despite the bravery of individual soldiers, the French were crippled by indecisive leadership and vague war aims. This story serves as a timeless reminder that technology alone cannot guarantee victory; success requires correctly identifying the problem and committing the mass and will necessary to solve it.

warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/str...

Marshall McGurk examines Bernard Fall’s account of the ‘54 siege of Dien Bien Phu. French forces faced a definitive #defeat due to strategic #hubris & a failure to align #resources w/ reality against the Viet Minh's resolve #WAR_ROOM

Send your thoughts!

1 week ago 33 13 5 2

The new reality is that Iran now has control of the Strait & will continue to control it

This unprovoked attack for Israel has cost the US enormously: shredded diplomatic credibility & control lost over an essential strategic area, as well as also likely forced the US military out of its Gulf bases

1 week ago 17 7 0 0
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3 Russian Submarines Detected Near Britain Were Spying, U.K. Says John Healey, the defense secretary, said the submarines were gathering information about crucial undersea pipelines and cables.

The British military spent more than a month tracking Russian efforts to spy on critical undersea pipelines and telecommunication lines on the floor of the northern Atlantic Ocean, Britain's defense secretary revealed on Thursday.

1 week ago 81 51 5 4

“China is the winner in this war from an economic standpoint, from an energy mix standpoint…

Japan, Korea and India are now all more likely to look for ways to diversify their energy mix, and the equipment needed to achieve that [clean tech] diversification will inevitably come from China”

1 week ago 0 1 0 0
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Pentagon’s ouster of Anthropic opens doors for small AI rivals Small defense industry artificial intelligence startups are suddenly fielding calls from generals, combatant commanders and deep-pocketed investors.

Small defense industry artificial intelligence startups are suddenly fielding calls from generals, combatant commanders and deep-pocketed investors.

1 week ago 8 5 0 0
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Ukraine finally outshoots Russia In March, Ukraine launched more than 7,000 cross-border attacks, surpassing the number of Russia’s launches. Serhii has been developing drones since 2022, when he realized their importance.

Good morning to readers; Kyiv remains in Ukrainian hands.

Ukrainian drones now strike deeper in Russia. Serhii Okhotnik’s drone designs keep Ukrainian soldiers safe, trading Chinese Mavics for a Ukrainian design.

1 week ago 252 53 2 2
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New at CBS News - Army survivors of deadly attack in Kuwait dispute Pentagon's account, say unit "was unprepared" to defend itself — this is a photograph of the tactical operations center struck by an Iranian drone on March 1. www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-wa...

1 week ago 449 172 15 16
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Starlink Terminals Found on Russian Oil Tankers Fueling Shadow Fleet Operations Starlink terminals are being used by Russia's shadow fleet tankers to coordinate movements and evade detection while transporting oil globally.

⚡️Russia is using Starlink terminals on shadow fleet tankers to dodge sanctions and fund its war in Ukraine.

2 weeks ago 84 44 2 3
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Trump Is Doing Structural Damage to American Intelligence The issue isn’t just his disregard for facts. It’s that he’s reshaping the government in his image.

Tremendously important article by @johnsipher.bsky.social in The Bulwark. The damage that Trump is doing to the US IC is deeper and more profound than you might understand. He is changing its very structure. www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-is-d...

2 weeks ago 909 376 39 27
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How hacked surveillance cameras are fueling assassinations in Iran Security feeds and traffic cameras have helped guide some of the most audacious targeted killings in modern history. Security researchers say the underlying vulnerabilities cover the planet and are ea...

www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-...

2 weeks ago 47 24 2 0
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Bases in Spain provide US leverage for conflicts in Middle East and Indo-Pacific A reduced or withdrawn U.S. military presence in Spain could weaken Washington’s strategic leverage in any future conflict with China.

ANALYSIS | The U.S. could lose vital leverage needed in any potential conflict with China should it choose to reduce or eliminate its military footprint in Spain.

Read more here:

2 weeks ago 14 4 1 2
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The Folly of Seizing Kharg Island The war with Iran is into its fifth week, and despite much of its military power being destroyed by U.S. and Israeli strikes, Tehran has yet to give in or

"Sending Marine forces into a dangerous operating environment under such circumstances, no matter how brave and skilled they are, is as reckless as it is counterproductive."

warontherocks.com/2026/04/the-...

2 weeks ago 24 5 1 0

Thank you for your service ... get your shit out of the house by Thursday

2 weeks ago 1 2 0 0
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Maybe Trump Should Not Have Given This Speech His address raised more questions than it answered about the war in Iran.

Maybe giving this speech was a bad call. (And who wrote this mess?) Trump is clearly lost; admitting it to the rest of the world is a bad idea.

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

2 weeks ago 1548 397 100 52
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World’s top energy traders wrongfooted in early days of Iran war Oil traders that normally thrive on volatility caught out by scale of crisis as energy shock unfurled

The world's leading energy traders paid close and totally uncritical attention to Donald Trump, and got burned over and again. They seem very slow to learn some fairly obvious lessons. www.ft.com/content/22e7...

2 weeks ago 16 8 2 0