Inflation in Russia — which had begun to slow at the beginning of this year — is picking up again. Data from the country’s statistical agency Rosstat shows price growth accelerated to 5.95% in the first week of April, after a dip to 5.86% in March.
Pro-Russian party associated with former president Rumen Radev has won Bulgaria’s snap parliamentary election with over 38 percent, according to exit polls. Radev has taken eurosceptic positions, called Crimea Russian, and opposed military support for Ukraine. #Bulgaria
With Radev's win in Bulgaria, imo, we'll see something new at the EU level-- advocacy for pro-Ru positions not from a euroskeptic position a la Orban/AfD/RN but from an ostensibly pro-EU position: Europe should abandon Ukr and go back to cheap Ru energy to be stronger and strategically autonomous.
Radev's party, called Progressive Bulgaria, should NOT be described as progressive or leftist. It's not that by a long-shot! The platform takes far-right positions on social issues, opposes renewable energy/Green Deal, and proposes tax breaks even though Bg has a 10% flat income/corporate tax.
NB: “… Russia would need prices for Urals crude, its main blend of oil, to remain above $100 a barrel for a year to close its budget deficit, and for significantly longer than that to smooth over its other economic problems.”
❗️A large-scale fire broke out at the oil refinery in 🇷🇺Tuapse as a result of a repeated nighttime attack by 🇺🇦Ukrainian strike drones.
“Prymary” unit strikes two Russian landing ships, Yamal and Nikolai Filchenkov, as well as “Podlyot-K1” radar system in Crimea.
Ukraine has used an unmanned surface platform to launch an interceptor drone that destroyed a Shahed UAV, marking the first known case of this tactic by the 412th Nemesis Brigade. #Ukraine
Who could possibly have foreseen? Oh wait
Two Indian-flagged ships attacked while crossing Strait of Hormuz, government confirms reut.rs/3OJ8f61
No matter how committed the US military is to learning and integrating the lessons of the UKR-RU war, I don’t see how it can keep up w the rapidity of the adaptation. Just too much change too quickly. Ofc doesn’t mean it shldn’t keep trying, but it’s chasing a rapidly moving target.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense has set an ambitious goal to transition up to 100% of frontline logistics to robotic systems.
To meet new target, Ukraine’s MoD plans to contract 25,000 UGVs in the first half of 2026, twice as many as were contracted throughout all of 2025.
Ukraine's General Staff confirms: Ukraine has struck four major Russian oil facilities overnight April 18, hitting refineries in Novokuybyshevsk and Syzran, the Vysotsk Lukoil terminal, and the Tikhoretsk pumping station, with fires confirmed across all locations. #Ukraine
❗️Ukraine’s SBU has struck three Russian warships in occupied Crimea, including the landing ships Yamal and Azov, and another vessel of unspecified type. The operation has also hit a Grachonok-class patrol boat, radar systems, communications infrastructure, and fuel storage facilities. #Ukraine
USS Gerald R Ford has entered the Red Sea accompanied by two destroyers, AP reports.
⚡️ Iran reimposes restrictions on Strait of Hormuz after Trump signals 'good news.'
"The Americans, with their repeated record of breach of promise, continue to engage in banditry and piracy under the guise of a so-called blockade," Iran's armed forces command said.
After saying on Wednesday that the Trump administration would not extend a temporary sanctions waiver on Russian oil, the White House did exactly the opposite on Friday and renewed the Russian oil waiver.
⚡️Ukraine wins debt relief and IMF flexibility in DC — but growth outlook dims.
The IMF told investors on April 17 that their April 12 forecast of 2% growth for Ukraine in 2026 was too optimistic, and that they expect to downgrade it in the near future.
On the hard road ahead for Magyar. 🤞 NB: “Most fundamental is the issue of weakened institutions. The Polish courts, for example, were so thoroughly undermined that to this day no one knows what to do with them… Attempts to restore balance are fraught with the risk of repeating previous practices.”
Smthg to watch but Lukashenko has managed to resist that pressure in the past, notably during the RU retreats from Kyiv and Kharkiv. Doubt he decides to back a weaker RU hand now.
Smart move by Kyiv but strikes me as a tough call for the Kremlin. Revenue helps but not going to want to reward Kyiv or Budapest.
Thread. NB: “Maybe talks really will work, but to get to a full solution of Hormuz would seem to be a really, really difficult diplomatic and military problem. Nuclear in many ways easier (see: JCPOA precedent).” One thing is certain: Trump will declare victory over & over again (despite eg gas $).
Well, Brent is at $88/bbl, which is more than a 40% increase YTD. That isn’t exactly pricing a return to where we were before this misadventure.
One gobsmacker after another.
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
IMO the headline shld read “Putin’s Approval Rating Remains Very High As Best As We Can Tell Despite All Russia’s Problems.” If it drops below 50%, time to worry Putin does smthg truly reckless like provoke a crisis vs NATO. (Or more accurately, if it keeps going down, raise risk assessment.)
IMO this will not change at least as long as Putin is president and likely after. What’s v unclear is just how those goals are pursued. A Minsk III-type ceasefire will mean “war” vs UKR/West by other means, but better a cold war than a hot one.
The US and Iran are in talks over a possible deal in which Washington would release about $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran giving up its enriched uranium stockpile, Axios reports.
President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is open for full passage but confirmed a US naval blockade against Iran remains fully in force until ongoing negotiations are completed. #US
Yup.
