This week’s ceasefire in Iran is a far cry from a quick solution to the conflict.

Amr Hamzawy, @andrewleber.bsky.social, @ericlob.bsky.social, and Marwan Muasher unpacked regional reactions, steps forward, and multiple major sticking points: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

The Diverging U.S. and Israeli Goals in Iran Are Making the Endgame Even Murkier The cracks between Trump and Netanyahu have become more pronounced, particularly over energy and leadership targets.

The U.S. and Israel entered the Iran war together. But whereas President Trump seems to favor alignment with a regime insider, PM Netanyahu appears to want a weakened Iran and an ongoing conflict.

@ericlob.bsky.social explains this divergence: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Who Will Be Iran’s Next Supreme Leader? If the succession process can be carried out as Khamenei intended, it will likely bring a hardliner into power.

Choosing the right successor to Ayatollah Khamenei is critical for regime survival in Iran.

@ericlob.bsky.social outlines the succession process and the prospective candidates.

Read here:

Trump tells the Atlantic "I have agreed to talk" to Iran President Trump tells the Atlantic he's willing to talk with Iran to find a resolution, a day after U.S.-Israeli strikes on the country. Eric Lob, associate professor of politics and international rel...

@ericlob.bsky.social followed up on the initial attacks by the U.S. on Iran this past weekend on @cbsnews.com.web.brid.gy and its effects on regional stability.

Full video: www.cbsnews.com/video/trump-...

Iran’s Protesters Are Trapped Between Tehran’s Brutality and Trump’s Empty Promises Outside players with their own agenda are undermining the cause of regime change in the country

One of the most informative and analytically useful explainers on the situation in Iran—from Middle East expert @ericlob.bsky.social in @theunpopulist.net. Don't miss this.

The rise of Reza Pahlavi: Iranian opposition leader or opportunist? A scholar of modern Iran looks at Reza Pahlavi, son of the last shah of Iran, and examines what he believes and why his profile has been elevated during the recent anti-government protests.

The rise of Reza Pahlavi: Iranian opposition leader or opportunist?
@us.theconversation.com
@ericlob.bsky.social

theconversation.com/the-rise-of-...

Iran’s Protests Are Following a Familiar Pattern This time, though, they’re adding even more pressure to an already beleaguered regime.

The Iranian regime’s brutal repression of the protests that erupted this winter follows a familiar pattern. And even if regime leaders succeed in putting down the protests – this time – more will almost certainly follow.

@ericlob.bsky.social explains: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Iran in the Aftermath of the Twelve-Day War On 13 June 2025, Israel launched a 12-day war against Iran, two days before the sixth round of US–Iran nuclear talks were due to begin in Oman. Analysis is provided of how the war has transformed Iran...

3️⃣ Iran in the Aftermath of the Twelve-Day War
by @ericlob.bsky.social, Diba Mirzaei, and Hamid Talebian

www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publicati...

One of the joys of my work is discovering how creative communities are in shaping their own futures—often in ways states never predicted. It’s a side of Middle East politics that rarely makes headlines.

If you’re into politics, IR, or the kinds of institutions that build (or unravel) states, welcome — excited to share ideas and learn from this corner of Bluesky.

As a nonresident scholar at Carnegie’s Middle East Program and a political scientist at FIU, I spend most of my time tracing how states try to shape societies, and how societies push back.

Diving deeper into questions of development, state-building, and soft power in the Middle East — from the ground up rather than through the usual grand narratives.

Iran’s Water Crisis Is a Warning to Other Countries Without addressing the worsening issue’s root causes, any mitigation efforts will likely fall short. States in similar situations should take note.

Tehran could run out of drinking water within two weeks, Iranian officials warned earlier this month. How did Iran get here? And how should states in similar situations move forward?

@ericlob.bsky.social explains: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Iraq heads to elections amid violence, corruption claims and a potential low turnout driven by public disillusionment and Sadr’s boycott call. Even if PM Sudani wins most seats, forming a government could spark another internal Shiite power struggle.

Conflict in the Middle East is intertwined with competition for legitimacy and influence. Power is exercised not only through force, but through rebuilding, governance, and narrative control. Understanding the region means watching both the battlefield and what follows after.

The Politics of Personal Status Law in Egypt and Iraq Meaningful transformation in personal status law requires political will, sustained feminist advocacy, as well as a reimagining of legal authority with justice at its core.

Personal status law isn't just tradition or doctrine—it's deeply political, write @nerminallam.bsky.social and Baneen Al Qaraghuli. Egypt resists meaningful reforms to preserve patriarchy; Iraq adopts conservative reform to build legitimacy.

Full paper: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...