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Posts by tim lapira

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Political elites’ partisan beliefs about climate change Political elites’ partisan beliefs about climate change, Furnas, Alexander C, LaPira, Timothy M, Benegal, Salil D

Here’s the open access article at Environmental Research Communication iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

5 days ago 3 1 0 0
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Axios Future of Energy Make sense of the energy upheavals reshaping our world. By Ben Geman and Amy Harder.

Our new study on political elites’ partisan climate attitudes is covered today in @axios.com Future of Energy newsletter www.axios.com/newsletters/...

5 days ago 4 3 2 0

Fact (hard to call it fun): The last time the Rules Committee reported a rule allowing any floor amendments was 22 January.

6 days ago 18 5 1 0
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Congress Overwhelmed Congress today is falling short. Fewer bills, worse oversight, and more dysfunction. But why? In a new volume of essays, the contributors investigate an underappreciated reason Congress is struggling:...

There’s also our book…

press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo...

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So do I!

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#polisky share far and wide: @apsa.bsky.social Statement on the Proposed Elimination of the Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences Directorate at the National Science Foundation

apsanet.org/wp-content/u...

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Environmental Research Communications
LETTER

Political elites' partisan beliefs about climate change
OPEN ACCESS
Alexander C Furnas'*®, Timothy M LaPira? O and Salil D Benegal' ©


Addressing climate change requires political elites to share a basic set of facts about climate science, yet political elites in the United States are divided in their views about climate change. We document

this using the first large-scale survey of over 3,500 U.S. political elites-including elected officials, staffers, regulators, lobbyists, and policy professionals—to assess the partisan divide in beliefs about climate change held by political elites. We show near-unanimous agreement among the Democratic elite on the scientific consensus that global warming is occurring, primarily caused by humans, and widely recognized by scientists. In contrast, substantial minorities of Republican elites reject these scientific facts, with fewer than half affirming anthropogenic climate change and nearly one-third endorsing a climate-related conspiracy theory. Comparing elites to the general public, we find that political elites are more aligned with climate science, but partisan gaps among elites are as wide as those observed in mass opinion. Regression analyses show partisan identity explains far more variation in elite climate beliefs than ideology, trust in science, or broader conspiratorial predispositions. These findings suggest that partisan polarization among elites reflects not only strategic electoral behavior but also privately held attitudes.

Environmental Research Communications LETTER Political elites' partisan beliefs about climate change OPEN ACCESS Alexander C Furnas'*®, Timothy M LaPira? O and Salil D Benegal' © Addressing climate change requires political elites to share a basic set of facts about climate science, yet political elites in the United States are divided in their views about climate change. We document this using the first large-scale survey of over 3,500 U.S. political elites-including elected officials, staffers, regulators, lobbyists, and policy professionals—to assess the partisan divide in beliefs about climate change held by political elites. We show near-unanimous agreement among the Democratic elite on the scientific consensus that global warming is occurring, primarily caused by humans, and widely recognized by scientists. In contrast, substantial minorities of Republican elites reject these scientific facts, with fewer than half affirming anthropogenic climate change and nearly one-third endorsing a climate-related conspiracy theory. Comparing elites to the general public, we find that political elites are more aligned with climate science, but partisan gaps among elites are as wide as those observed in mass opinion. Regression analyses show partisan identity explains far more variation in elite climate beliefs than ideology, trust in science, or broader conspiratorial predispositions. These findings suggest that partisan polarization among elites reflects not only strategic electoral behavior but also privately held attitudes.

I've got a new paper out today with @timlapira.bsky.social and @salilb.bsky.social in ERC showing that party ID strongly structures political elites' beliefs about climate change. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

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Political elites’ partisan beliefs about climate change Political elites’ partisan beliefs about climate change, Furnas, Alexander C, LaPira, Timothy M, Benegal, Salil D

Ever wonder if political elites’ beliefs about climate change are partisan? If so have I got a new article for you!

Elites believe climate science more than voters, but there’s still a partisan divide.

w/ @salilb.bsky.social & @alexanderfurnas.com

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

1 week ago 15 10 0 0
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🚨 New paper accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social: we were in the field while Brexit dominated British politics.

Do MPs respond differently when constituents disagree with the party line?

What we find surprised us: a null!

url: osf.io/preprints/os...

1 week ago 66 26 2 3

None of you are going to give a shit about this at the parade.

2 weeks ago 274 17 23 1

“The Fiscal Year (FY) 2027 Budget proposes to eliminate the National Endowment for the Humanities (NEH) and provides $38 million to conduct an orderly shutdown of the Agency.” — NEH.gov

The NEH has $207 million for FY2026. War in Iran? 1 billion per day. We go through 4.83 NEHs a day for what?

2 weeks ago 239 90 8 4
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Massive budget cuts for US science proposed again by Trump administration Budget proposal would also curb federal payments for scientific publishing.

I will say this again: Science isn’t just something that nerds do, it’s the foundation of the modern world.

It’s why this app exists. It’s why child mortality rate isn’t 50% anymore. It’s how we’re able to launch people to the moon. It’s how we’re able to grow food that feeds half the world.

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Massive budget cuts for US science proposed again by Trump administration Budget proposal would also curb federal payments for scientific publishing.

BREAKING: In response to huge cuts in Trump's budget request, NSF is shuttering its SBE directorate. Staff will be transferred to other parts of the agency and "grants that align with Administration priorities" will be maintained.

That & more w/ @maxkozlov.bsky.social & @edwrdchen.bsky.social

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The NSF 2027 budget has noted that they will close out the Social, Behavioral, and Economic Science Program (SBE). This is not a good thing. nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov/files/FY-202...

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Politicians should be paid anywhere from 2x to 20x as much as they currently are, and their office budgets and support staff budgets should be increased by the same

3 weeks ago 11 2 2 0

Every paper begins as a promise and ends as a compromise.

3 weeks ago 44 7 2 3
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Sisyphus but every day he unsubscribes from marketing and promotion emails.

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The Politicization of Federal Leadership: Record Non-Senate Confirmed Presidential Appointments and the Hollowing Out of Career Leadership A nonprofit, nonpartisan organization working towards effective government for the American people.

1/ The federal government now has the largest political workforce in 40 years and the smallest career senior leadership in 25 years — simultaneously. In a new report I authored at @ourpublicservice.bsky.social: ourpublicservice.org/publications...

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Both statutes define lobbying so narrowly — by contact thresholds, time spent, explicit advocacy — that the influence itself goes unregistered. Rivera’s alleged conduct isn’t a failure of enforcement. It’s a failure of definition. 2/2

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Former US congressman secretly lobbied for Venezuela, prosecutor says at trial A former U.S. congressman illegally lobbied U.S. officials to ease pressure ​on ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government, a U.S. prosecutor said on Monday at the opening of a trial that...

The Rivera trial will be remembered for Rubio’s testimony. It should be remembered for evidence that under the LDA and FARA you can sell a foreign government your congressional rolodex for $20M and call it “consulting.” The loophole is the feature, not the bug. www.reuters.com/world/americ...

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Conflating Lobbying and PACs: The Surprisingly Low Overlap in Organizational Lobbying and Campaign Expenditures | PS: Political Science & Politics | Cambridge Core Conflating Lobbying and PACs: The Surprisingly Low Overlap in Organizational Lobbying and Campaign Expenditures - Volume 58 Issue 4

Based on our PS article here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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The Myth That Lobbying and Campaign Giving Are the Same - ProMarket In new research, Alexander Furnas, Timothy LaPira, and Clare Brock find that most politically active organizations engage in either campaign contributions or lobbying, but rarely both.The findings hav...

Lobbying ≠ campaign contributions.
Treating them as the same isn’t just wrong—it distorts how we understand influence in American politics.

New piece w @clarebrock.bsky.social & @alexanderfurnas.com: why the overlap is smaller than most think and why that matters.
www.promarket.org/2026/03/20/t...

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I will do anything, use any VPN, crawl through any shady pirate site, to not have to watch Alexi Lalas call the World Cup.

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Same thing goes for campaign finance.

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Never has so much US combat power been assembled with so little explanation to the public, allies, or Congress regarding why or how it will be used. Never.

1 month ago 904 279 22 15
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American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library Contemporary political ills at the mass behavior level (e.g., outgroup aggression, conspiracy theories) are often attributed to increasing polarization and partisan tribalism. We theorize that many s....

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

2 months ago 3 0 0 0
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Doctors vs. doctors: intra-associational conflict and federalism - Interest Groups & Advocacy Interest Groups & Advocacy - If associations include multiple constituencies with conflicting preferences, whose preferences will they represent? We argue that the higher the territorial level...

"Doctors vs. doctors: intra-associational conflict and federalism" new Interest Groups & Advocacy link.springer.com/article/10.1...

2 months ago 2 2 0 0
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It’s not just that the number of filed discharge petitions is up this year (though it is; see below).

4 months ago 11 5 2 1
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Opinion | The White House Gold Rush Is On

wrote about the president’s flagrant and destructive corruption in a column that references street fighter, the simpsons, machiavelli, and a host of revolutionary-era americans (gift link)

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The friends we met along the way, etc.

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