Also it's taken years of follow-up to get to this point - would it have been better to have randomised and got to a more definitive answer in a shorter time?
Just throwing out questions at this point - more when I've looked at it in.mire detail.

How do we know there isn't just selection of the patients most likely to do well?

Haven't looked at the study (yet) but this is a good question. Do we know the counterfactual outcome though? If I'm understanding correctly, it's given along with chemotherapy, so it's not unambiguously an effect of the vaccine...

We demanded it of Johnson but we didn't get it.

Don't disagree
But double standards from some directions

This may be right but let's not forget Johnson lying to parliament repeatedly and suffering no consequences whatsoever.

Unfalsifiable by Design: A Year of Trying and Failing to Reproduce a Human Microbiome and Autism Study The myth of open data, reproducibility, responsibility, and accountability in science, and your role in it

How every layer of science's "self-correcting machinery" failed when Iva Veseli and I simply wanted to reproduce the findings of a high-profile study on gut microbiome and autism:

merenlab.org/2026/04/15/u...

Heat pumps are the most efficient heating technology ever invented.

They harvest and compress pre existing heat in the air, ground or water and transport it where it is needed.

That energy is all around us.

And it does not have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Hungarian election today...

Side note: news broadcasters really need to brush up on Hungarian pronunciation.

Same for me - a swallow over the fields while I was out running.

Did you miss this bit?

AI seems to be the topic of the year — nearly every conversation I have in my role as academic lead for good research practice touches on it in some way. I’d like to lay out my developing thoughts for conversation and critique. (1/7)

People are still testing their baseline characteristics in RCTs, and there's really no excuse.

cover of the book "Bayesian Workflow" by Gelman, Vehtari, et al. Coming out later this year, in the summer probably.

I would have preferred to have the "draw the rest of the owl" meme on the cover, but this will do. Seems like it is on schedule, and we'll leave some typos so you know we didn't write it with AI.

Twenty years ago, "big data" was (or were!) going to transform everything...

I feel much more anger towards the British pundits & politicians who failed to understand the depravity & derangement of Donald Trump than I do the ones who failed to understand the idiocy of Brexit. But it doesn’t really matter because they’re exactly the same bloody people.

Frank Harrell on why and how to do Bayes for clinical trials and the recent FDA draft guidelines
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/26/f...

The UK Covid Inquiry has laid bare the avoidable horror of the second Covid wave It is becoming ever clearer both how devastating the second wave of winter 2020/21 was, and how much of that devastation could have been avoided.

I wrote about the findings from the inquiry about the impact of the pandemic on the NHS, and the mistakes of the first year.

I hope it makes you angry - it should make us all angry.

open.substack.com/pub/christin...

Embracing Bayesian Methods in Clinical Trials This Perspective discusses the importance of the US Food and Drug Administration’s draft guidance on the use of bayesian methods in clinical trials because it underscores its commitment to modernizing...

Celebrating the draft FDA Bayesian guidance document with our perspective in @jama.com. Honored to co-author w/Jack Lee (MD Anderson), Lisa LaVange (past director of Office of Biostatistics FDA CDER&president of ASA),& my Bayesian inspiration Sir David Spiegelhalter jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Take Big Money Out of Our Politics British politics is awash with money from super rich donors. In 2023, two-thirds of all private donations came from just 19 people. These so-called ‘mega donors’ enjoy privileged access to political p...

Oh wow our campaign to Take Big Money Out of British Politics with @38degrees.bsky.social now has more than 100,000 signatures!

Can we make it even more to show government this needs to happen?

Do sign and share the petition if you haven't already! thanks 😊 you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/ta...

Using Quarto to Write a Book I’ve spent the last couple of months revising my Data Visualization book for a second edition that, ideally, will appear some time in the next twelve months. As with the first edition, I’ve posted a c...

Using Quarto to write (and typeset) a book.

Quietly, calmly and forensically, BBC just dismantled the Trump communications shitshow on Iran.

No hyperbole, just laying out an unprecedented military, diplomatic and reputational shambles.

Worth a watch.

(🎥 BBC News/BBC Verify)

I joined the boycott. Consider joining yourself. All AI is dangerous but ChatGPT's developers are truly devoid of conscience.

I don't really understand what has happened to Wes Streeting.

Bit harsh on halibuts

Urge Your MP to Attend the Debate on the EU Referendum Anniversary Nearly a decade after the 2016 referendum, the effects of Brexit are no longer theoretical. They are visible in the economy, in pressures on public finances, and in the UK’s changing role internationa...

💥 This "Write to your MP" call has had an extraordinary resonse -- nearly 12,000 emails now landing in the inboxes of over 600 MPs. 💥

And the debate is tomorrow.

If you've not yet asked your MP to attend, please do so NOW - and also SHARE this post/link.

Thank you.

🔥 Write to you MP now!!

Here is the link you need —> www.europeanmovement.co.uk/contact-mp-e...

⭐ NEW PAPER ⭐ on a Bayesian approach to sample size calculations for external validation of risk prediction models - account for uncertainty in the assumed true performance of the model - plus calculate assurance probabilities & the value of information
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

The Representation of the People Bill is a good start, but doesn't go nearly far enough. First Past the Post leaves millions unfairly shut out of democracy.

#Democracy #ElectoralReform

Maybe the start of an outbreak of common sense? We can hope