Breaking the deadlock on AI governance How a crisis could lead to global coordination

Excited to share my latest report, Breaking the Deadlock on AI Governance, that explores the potential of crisis as a catalyst for new governance pathways.

I hope readers find the framing as compelling as I did: bit.ly/48n6odA

OpenAI’s Pentagon red lines are a mirage OpenAI claims its DoW deal prevents its models being used for mass domestic surveillance. That appears to be misleading at best

To better understand the OpenAI / Anthropic divergence on domestic mass surveillance, @shakeelhashim.com's new essay in Transformer is super clear and concise: www.transformernews.ai/p/openai-pen...

How middle powers can weather US and Chinese AI dominance The case for ‘sovereign AI’ strategies

Dependency on the US and China is unavoidable, but increased sovereignty over the deployment of AI will allow middle powers to develop their own technologies.

Read the latest analysis from @alexkj.bsky.social, @rwilkinson.bsky.social and @isabellawilkinson.bsky.social.

How an AI bubble bursting could erode US tech dominance and accelerate China's rise There are growing concerns that the AI sector may be overvalued. If an AI bubble does burst, China could benefit in the long term.

My latest piece (exploring a hypothetical post-burst future 🫧) urges that we need to think beyond market correction and consider how an AI bubble burst could reshape the industry as players shift positions and adopt new strategies... www.chathamhouse.org/2025/12/how-...

Thank you, Milly!

The geography of AI compute: Mapping what is available and where Countries count AI compute infrastructure as a strategic asset without systematically tracking its distribution, availability and access. A new OECD Working Paper presents a methodology to help fill t...

Excellent methodology piece from OECD - The geography of AI compute: Mapping what is available and where

Useful stats and insights on global distribution of public cloud AI compute 📊 oecd.ai/en/wonk/the-...

The case for expanding digital public infrastructure How open, scalable technology can serve citizens, preserve sovereignty and save money

DPI is more than a technical solution: it is a new theory of change that reframes the digital state as a platform for innovation and sovereignty.

Read our new paper on digital public infrastructure here: www.chathamhouse.org/2025/10/case...

"Whereas the United States aims for the export of its own values, Japan aims for interoperability based on the premise of diverse values."

An interesting read from @csis.org on Japan's pluralistic interoperable approach!

What if OpenAI went belly-up? To gauge the centrality of the AI superstar, we conduct a thought experiment

Four of OpenAI’s six big deal announcements this year were followed by a total combined net gain of $1.7trn among the 49 big companies in Bloomberg’s broad AI index plus Intel, Samsung and SoftBank. However, the gains for most concealed losses for some

How Estonia built a digital society Alar Karis, President of Estonia, and other experts describe the Estonian experience as it rolls out its ground-breaking e-governance and digital identity infrastructure.

It was an honour to join President of Estonia Alar Karis and Hannes Astok in a public panel on how Estonia built a digital society, chaired by Alex Krasodomski-Jones and with a presentation from Adam Rang.

For those interested, it is available online: www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/o...

Access Now - The Taliban must restore internet access across Afghanistan now Access Now and the #KeepItOn coalition unequivocally denounce the ongoing nationwide internet blackout in Afghanistan and demand that the Taliban restore internet access immediately.

The Taliban is keeping millions in digital darkness.

Internet shutdowns are a human rights attack — cutting off people from education, healthcare, and vital information. Together with 60+ orgs, we demand they restore access immediately and #KeepItOn.

www.accessnow.org/press-releas...

Beyond the hype: The realities and risks of artificial intelligence today Join us for an event that doesn’t just ask what AI could become, but what it already is and why it should matter to you.

Please join our discussion on the realities and risks of artificial intelligence today. 2 Oct, 18:00!

This event is a chance to hear from engineers from a leading AI lab and policy experts to cut through the noise & confront the reality of today’s AI ability.

www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/o...

Open Source AI: A Cornerstone of Digital Sovereignty A Blog post by Lucie-Aimée Kaffee on Hugging Face

@hf.co - "Open source ensures that this power is distributed, transparent, and adaptable rather than concentrated in a few hands." huggingface.co/blog/frimell...

AI openness is a strategic move for those seeking greater tech sovereignty.

Such an important investigative piece - a must read

Trump’s AI Action Plan seeks customers, not partners A move to create US open-source AI is a surprise – and a possible opportunity for middle powers like the UK.

Donald Trump's AI Action Plan is in parts predictable, in parts surprising, and in total a clear illustration of a changing US approach to the rest of the world.

Read @alexkj.bsky.social's latest for Chatham House ⤵️

How can the conflict prevention community respond to disappearing data and funding cuts? In the third series of UCL and Chatham House’s Innovation Network in Conflict Prediction, experts, policymakers and practitioners explored how to sustain conflict data ecosystems and early warning sys...

Great research from my colleagues on how to sustain conflict data ecosystems and early warning systems amid disappearing funding and increasing data restrictions: www.ucl.ac.uk/policy-lab/n...

Why politicians need to get over their tech insecurity Those in the political sphere should not be ridiculed for asking important questions — even if they do lack technical expertise

"Silicon Valley exploits this insecurity, dismissing politicians’ lack of understanding as grounds for excluding them from debate. But this logic is flawed" - Great article in the @financialtimes.com by @marietjeschaake.bsky.social on.ft.com/456lt1Z

The UK can cement its place in the global AI race by nurturing talent The UK can outcompete other middle powers by nurturing and attracting the best and brightest of the AI world but access to capital remains a barrier.

The UK can outcompete other middle powers by nurturing and attracting the best and brightest of the AI world but access to capital remains a barrier.

Read @alexkj.bsky.social and @rwilkinson.bsky.social's latest for @chathamhouse.org ⬇️

The Open Dividend: Building an AI openness strategy to unlock the UK’s AI potential Demos is Britain’s leading cross-party think-tank. We produce original research, publish innovative thinkers and host thought-provoking events.

"Pursue AI Sovereignty through outward collaboration and resource sharing, and promoting open development guidelines" - New paper on openness from @demos-uk.bsky.social

demos.co.uk/research/the...

Battling disinformation: How can digital spaces be made safe for the LGBTIQ+ community? This panel assesses how policy and platforms can better protect minority groups online.

📣 Join us on Thursday (online or at Chatham House) for an open event on how policy and platforms can better protect minority groups online.

Sign up here: bit.ly/3HSdht7 #disinformation #pridemonth

AI as Normal Technology

A refreshing contrast to superintelligence narratives - arguing that past tech revolutions can teach us a lot about adoption, diffusion, impact and the role of institutions in shaping AI trajectory: @randomwalker.bsky.social @sayash.bsky.social knightcolumbia.org/content/ai-a...

Digital oil: chips, artificial intelligence and US national security By drawing a fresh analogy with US policy and regulations in the oil sector, this policy paper offers pointers for a strategic blueprint for securing acces

An interesting, new analogy for semiconductor chips and AI in @iajournal.bsky.social. Some good take aways on international regulatory bodies and norms development:

academic.oup.com/ia/article-a...

Republicans Try to Cram Ban on AI Regulation Into Budget Reconciliation Bill Republicans try to use the Budget Reconciliation bill to stop states from regulating AI entirely for 10 years.

Republicans Try to Cram Ban on AI Regulation Into Budget Reconciliation Bill

🔗 www.404media.co/republicans-...

US ownership of TikTok won’t protect democracies from digital threats Concerns over foreign-owned platforms may overshadow deeper-rooted threats in the global information environment. Beyond platform ownership, the US and other democracies need coordinated and consisten...

A new expert comment from my colleague Isabella and I: bit.ly/4lHkFqT 📖

The debate over TikTok’s influence has exposed many weaknesses at the heart of US democracy and its information environment, but banning or changing the platform’s ownership alone will not fix these deep-rooted problems.

The data streams that underpin humanitarian response are about to collapse Famine warning, needs assessments, health data: Humanitarian action will be groping in the dark if vital data sources are allowed to crumble.

Such an interesting take on USAID dismantlement consequences, from @newhumanitarian.bsky.social.

"Humanitarian data loss is just one part of a broader information collapse threatened by the US retreat from its global leadership role, but its consequences are immediate and deadly" bit.ly/3Fskfnj

PS Events: AI Action Summit YouTube video by Project Syndicate

Global Dialogues has launched at the Paris #AIActionSummit.

Watch @audreyt.org give the announcement via @projectsyndicate.bsky.social

youtu.be/XkwqYQL6V4A?... (starts at 02:47:30)

2025... backsliding continues...

Journal of Cyber Policy Cross-Border Data Sharing. Volume 9, Issue 1 of Journal of Cyber Policy

"There is no shared Sino-Russian model of data sovereignty" - an interesting article from Liliya Khasanova & Katharin Tai, on China and Russia's approach to data localisation.

You can find it in the Journal of Cyber Policy's open access issue on cross border data sharing: bit.ly/4h3kOl1

@theworldtoday.bsky.social has just launched its new edition!
Stories include the triple crisis facing Europe, the
weaponization of immigration in Latin America, conspiracy theorists in the White House, a quiz of 2024 global affairs and more! Read here: www.chathamhouse.org/publications...

On the Coming Merger of Tech and State Power | TechPolicy.Press Taylor Owen writes that the merger of state and tech power is a fundamental challenge to democratic governance in the digital age.

Taylor Owen, Director of The Centre for Media, Technology and Democracy at McGill University, writes that the merger of state and tech power is a fundamental challenge to democratic governance in the digital age.