![EFTA01939256 | EFTA01939274
These international economic fads are always suspect, up or
down. They seem to follow what I was (facetiously) told years
ago was the guiding rule for columnists: Simplify, then
exaggerate. So beware this latest revisionism, just like any other
variety.
But some startling new assessments of global economic trends
stand the "declinist" wisdom of recent years on its head. The
revisionists argue that U.S. economic fundamentals are now
stronger than they seemed, and that those of the BRICs — the
emerging giants Brazil, Russia, India and China — are weaker.
Certainly, the financial markets are registering this new view.
The Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Index fell 5 percent last
year, compared to a nearly 30 percent gain for the U.S.
benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index. Meanwhile, the
International Monetary Fund ( IMF) predicted Tuesday that
economic growth will rise this year and next in the United States
and decline both years in China.
One influential revisionist has been Antoine van Agtmael, the
economist who coined the hopeful term "emerging markets" in
1981. Van Agtmael has written several blistering assessments
recently about the former rising superstars.
"A few years ago there was a widespread feeling that the
developed world had fallen off its pedestal — that Asia had not
only escaped the global financial crisis but that its system was
somehow superior. That overconfidence seems gone now.
Instead there is a sense of vulnerability," he wrote in Foreign
Policy in June 2012. "[T]he despair and fear felt by many in the
United States is misplaced. In fact, there are early signs that the
EFTA_R1_00396798
EFTA01939274](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ndjyym3ihrqu3g25gdztefrv/bafkreigvmynityipvg5xmwvahj3doaqmryedriek6jq2ckx6rjvwgzfary)
EFTA01939256 | EFTA01939274 These international economic fads are always suspect, up or down. They seem to follow what I was (facetiously) told years ago was the guiding rule for columnists: Simplify, then exaggerate. So beware this latest revisionism, just like any other variety. But some startling new assessments of global economic trends stand the "declinist" wisdom of recent years on its head. The revisionists argue that U.S. economic fundamentals are now stronger than they seemed, and that those of the BRICs — the emerging giants Brazil, Russia, India and China — are weaker. Certainly, the financial markets are registering this new view. The Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Index fell 5 percent last year, compared to a nearly 30 percent gain for the U.S. benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund ( IMF) predicted Tuesday that economic growth will rise this year and next in the United States and decline both years in China. One influential revisionist has been Antoine van Agtmael, the economist who coined the hopeful term "emerging markets" in 1981. Van Agtmael has written several blistering assessments recently about the former rising superstars. "A few years ago there was a widespread feeling that the developed world had fallen off its pedestal — that Asia had not only escaped the global financial crisis but that its system was somehow superior. That overconfidence seems gone now. Instead there is a sense of vulnerability," he wrote in Foreign Policy in June 2012. "[T]he despair and fear felt by many in the United States is misplaced. In fact, there are early signs that the EFTA_R1_00396798 EFTA01939274
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