The best overall performers in among these selected countries are South Korea, Norway and Iceland.
12/x
#COVID19norway #COVID19 #COVIDー19 #Covid_19
#Koronavirusfi #koronafi #covid19fi #covid19finland #COVID2019 #iceland
The epidemic in Denmark. Growth is slowing. New cases are driven by increasing testing.
15/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid2019 #covid19sverige #COVID19SWEDEN #COVID19norway #covid19dk #iceland
The epidemic in Iceland. Best performance among Nordic Countries.
14/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid2019 #covid19sverige #COVID19SWEDEN #COVID19norway #covid19dk #iceland
The epidemic in Sweden. Growth appears to be slowing, but the past 2-3 days look bad.
13/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid2019 #covid19sverige #COVID19SWEDEN #COVID19norway #covid19dk #iceland
The epidemic in Norway. New confirmed cases have started to grow again.
12/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid2019 #covid19sverige #COVID19SWEDEN #COVID19norway #covid19dk #iceland
The epidemic in Finland. The growth rate is slowing (red line). New confirmed cases are announced according to test date.
11/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid2019 #covid19sverige #COVID19SWEDEN #COVID19norway #covid19dk #iceland
Deaths are growing quickly in Sweden, less so elsewhere across the Nordics.
10/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid2019 #covid19sverige #COVID19SWEDEN #COVID19norway #covid19dk #iceland
In Sweden there appears to be some correlation as well. Unfortunately weekly testing data available only.
9/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid2019 #covid19sverige #COVID19SWEDEN #COVID19norway #covid19dk #iceland
In Iceland, initially strong corr, but thereafter the share of positive results is down from 21.4% (22 Mar) to 3.0% (7 Apr). Testing level now at all-time high.
8/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid2019 #covid19sverige #COVID19SWEDEN #COVID19norway #covid19dk #iceland
Also true in Norway, where testing leads new cases by 4-5 days.
7/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid2019 #covid19sverige #COVID19SWEDEN #COVID19norway #covid19dk #iceland
... as well as in Denmark.
6/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid2019 #covid19sverige #COVID19SWEDEN #COVID19norway #covid19dk #iceland
In Finland, increasing testing probably explains a recent increase in new confirmed cases ...
5/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid2019 #covid19sverige #COVID19SWEDEN #COVID19norway #covid19dk #iceland
In testing, Iceland is in a class of its own. I also added France -- low level of testing may explain the troubles there.
4/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid2019 #covid19sverige #COVID19SWEDEN #COVID19norway #covid19dk #iceland
Testing levels are improving in all Nordic countries. Norway successfully slowed the growth of the epidemic in a major testing push in March. Denmark is next.
3/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid2019 #covid19sverige #COVID19SWEDEN #COVID19norway #covid19dk #iceland
Number of new confirmed cases. Even though growth in new cases is slowing down, they just don't accelerate any more (that much). These numbers need to go down.
2/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid2019 #covid19sverige #COVID19SWEDEN #COVID19norway #covid19dk #iceland
Nordic epidemics. Iceland, Norway negative, Sweden slowing down. Finland and Denmark up but in both cases there is strong correlation with increased testing.
1/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid2019 #covid19sverige #COVID19SWEDEN #COVID19norway #covid19dk #iceland
An overall view of the epidemic. in Sweden. New infections are growing at a rate of 12% each day.
17/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid19sverige #COVID19norway
... and that the actual size of the epidemic is correspondingly higher.
17/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid19sverige #COVID19norway
So, the graph (10/x) should be read at between the 15-day line and the 12-day line. For 3 April, that gives 18.5-24.9%.
However, I believe the actual rate is much closer to Finland (5.0%) or Norway (3.4%).
17/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid19sverige #COVID19norway
according to the same study:
- 1.5 days from first symptoms to hospital arrival (page 3)
- thus: from illness onset to hospital arrival 5.0-6.6 days
- deduct this from 18.5 days, we get 11.9-13.5 days
16/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid19sverige #COVID19norway
Getting the parameters right, part 2
- a LANL study: 3.5-5.1 days from illness onset to first symptoms (page 3)
15/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid19sverige #COVID19norway
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02....
Getting the parameters right, part 1
- a study published in The Lancet, based on Chinese data: an average of 18.5 days from illness onset to death (p. 1057).
14/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid19sverige #COVID19norway...
How to read the picture (10/x):
- answer: 358 dead / (1439 cases 15 days earlier) = 24.9%
- that point is on the green (15 days) line on 3 April
- next: which lines on the graph are the right ones?
13/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid19sverige #COVID19norway
How to read the picture (10/x):
- 15 days earlier (19 March) there were 1439 confirmed cases. So the question is, how many of these 1439 survived and how many died and how many survived?
12/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid19sverige #COVID19norway
How to read the picture (10/x):
- first, make an assumption about how many days patients are ill before they die
- on 3 April there were a total of 358 deceased
11/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid19sverige #COVID19norway
I estimate that cumulatively 18.5-24.9 percent of people who got sick 12-15 days earlier have perished. This number is 3.7-5.0x the level seen in Finland (5.0%) and suggests the epidemic may be much bigger.
10/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid19sverige #COVID19norway
Moving to deaths. I calculate death rate using the method published in The Lancet. Key question: what happened to those people that got sick on the same date?
9/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid19sverige #COVID19norway
Assuming Sweden starts its intense testing ramp today, and it takes 16 days (same as in Norway), Sweden needs to run 133k tests per day at the peak (1.3% of total population per day). Probably not doable.
8/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid19sverige #COVID19norway
Sweden has been in no hurry to ramp up testing even though the epidemic has grown probably much faster than in Norway. The number of dead suggests that the epidemic may be much bigger in fact.
7/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid19sverige #COVID19norway
In Norway, an intense testing program peaked at 1670 tests/day/1m people. That was 6x more than for South Korea. Key reason: the epidemic had already grown to 528 ppm, or 4x bigger than in South Korea.
6/x
#koronavirusfi #covid19finland #covid19sverige #COVID19norway
