Before the 2025 election. After the 2026 by-elections.

Underrated aspect of having a majority:

People who didn't want to join the government as staff when it wasn't clear whether the government would last more than two years might be a bit more willing to sign up if it looks like the government is going to last at least four years.

ANALYSIS | If a court halts separatists' referendum bid, they'll push Danielle Smith to approve it anyway | CBC News A First Nation's injunction request, to be heard April 7, claims the independence petition drive threatens treaty rights.

One theory has it that the APP has manufactured the 178K number knowing that the courts may prevent Elections Alberta from actually counting the signatures.

APP will then pressure Smith to call the referendum anyhow (without independent verification of the petition).

www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...

To paraphrase two leaders we interviewed: The real opposition isn't across the aisle, it's behind you. And leading a one-seat majority government can be trickier than a one-seat minority.

Sarnia MP crosses the floor, federal Liberals now 1 short of majority government The Member of Parliament from Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong, Marilyn Gladu, is crossing the floor to join the Liberals, making the government one short of a majority.

Mark Carney is now one seat away from a majority.

In our book (partyloyalty.ca), we discuss the strains that floor-crossing places on both parties... +

vancouver.citynews.ca/2026/04/08/s...

It's coming. Fall 2026.

ANALYSIS | If a court halts separatists' referendum bid, they'll push Danielle Smith to approve it anyway | CBC News A First Nation's injunction request, to be heard April 7, claims the independence petition drive threatens treaty rights.

One theory has it that the APP has manufactured the 178K number knowing that the courts may prevent Elections Alberta from actually counting the signatures.

APP will then pressure Smith to call the referendum anyhow (without independent verification of the petition).

www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...

“We urge the government to accept the majority report in its entirety. This is the only option to guard against partisan interference that would secure an electoral advantage for one party over another.“

The UCP would win re-election today under the current existing boundaries that were drawn in 2017 and the majority report’s map, but the minority report’s map would make it basically impossible for the NDP to ever win in enough ridings to form a majority government — and that’s the point.

Alberta premier and education minister had private meeting with groups behind push to ‘conservatize’ Alberta school boards and ban LGBTQ books Private and faith-based schools, along with right-wing think tanks and parental rights groups, were invited to discuss education

NEW: Alberta premier and education minister had private meeting with groups behind push to ‘conservatize’ Alberta school boards and ban LGBTQ books

theijf.org/article/albe...

Drawing the Line Against Gerrymandering Why the Alberta Government Should Reject the "Minority Report"

My latest on the redistricting process in Alberta.

open.substack.com/pub/drjaredw...

Drawing the Line Against Gerrymandering Why the Alberta Government Should Reject the "Minority Report"

My latest on the state of Alberta democracy, where the UCP government seems intent on choosing their voters rather than the other way around.

open.substack.com/pub/drjaredw...

Any erosion of democratic principles is a threat first and foremost to vulnerable folks. Today's proposal hits exceptionally low on the implementability scale, though. Not going to come to fruition. The rhetoric could have a corrosive effect, no doubt.

Populist governments are known for flooding the zone with rhetoric & legislation to distract and wear down their opponents.

It's important to have a good triage system.

Me? I measure the impact on vulnerable people against the likelihood that their measures will actually take effect.

In terms of popularity, he polled ahead of his party in Alberta throughout his tenure as leader.

Me, neither. Here's why. Partyloyalty.ca

I don't know the guy, either. I've suggested his histical strategy -- attacking provincial leaders -- has come home to roost. That's about it.

For that, I've earned blaming and shaming from his fans. Hence the long list of slights in my initial tweet.

Criticism isn't bashing.

Wishing ill-will on your compatriots, that's bashing. And Avi knows a lot about that.

Bottom line:

The Alberta NDP has already distinguished itself from the federal party in the eyes of many Alberta voters.

Nenshi's moves against Lewis appear geared to consolidating or building on Notley's gains in this regard.

Third: strategic voting.

Federally, many centre-left voters in Alberta shift to Liberals to block Conservatives.

Carney has made the Liberal brand even more palatable -- even popular on its own.

Provincially, that option doesn't exist.

Second: ideological positioning.

The Alberta NDP has established itself as more centrist, pragmatic, and “Alberta-first." The federal NDP has... not.

Voters respond accordingly.

First: brand separation.

For many voters, Alberta NDP ≠ Federal NDP.

They’re seen as fundamentally different political options.

This is not unique to Alberta. Many of Canada's provincial party systems are truncated.

The degree of truncation in Alberta (and the West) is marked, though.

Think about that for a second.

Hundreds of thousands of Albertans who voted NDP provincially did *not* vote NDP federally.

What’s going on?

Let’s look at the numbers:

Alberta NDP (2023):
777K votes (44%)

Federal NDP in Alberta (2025): 143K votes (6%)

That’s a 5x difference. In the same province. The largest gap in the country.

For all the talk of the ANDP needing to break away from the federal party, most of their voters have.

Despite what you might hear from some in the chattering classes, Alberta voters behave completely differently depending on whether it’s a provincial or federal election. 🧵

Fun fact:

More people voted in the 2024 Alberta NDP leadership race than in the 2026 federal NDP race.

I'm a little down on parties. The way paramedics are down on highway driving. Seen too much.

Partyloyalty.ca

They hadn't tried and failed, though.

I agree with your general point. Leaders don't need seats right away. But they need to use their time outside the house wisely: building coalitions, repairing rifts, improving the ground game, earning media attention, etc.

Never done an endorsement before.

I'm not an NDP member or partisan. This race, in general, and this weekend, in particular, has only reinforced my decision.