I sat down with my boss Stephanie Flanders & David Gura for the Bloomberg News Big Take podcast to discuss the gloom and doom at this week's spring meetings of the IMF & World Bank and why everyone is worried about the economic fallout of the Iran war...

www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2...

War and the economic consequences have been top of mind the past 6 weeks. But we’re not thinking enough about the world’s capacity to respond to another crisis.

The bad news is that the safety net is looking threadbare.

Latest with @bloomberg.com colleagues:

www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Best of luck, Jeff. You are a remarkable journalist. I look forward to hearing more about what comes next for you…

Trump’s Tariffs Will Loom Large Over the Midterms, Whatever Happens in Iran US history shows that duties have a way of boomeranging back on their backers at election time.

Tariffs and elections have historically been a toxic mix for US presidents. Is this year going to see history repeat itself?

Gift link to my latest for @bloomberg.com & @businessweek.bsky.social:

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

How Trump's Tariffs Got a Reality Check YouTube video by Bloomberg Originals

'How Trump's Tariff Got a Reality Check'

Very nice, brief, and Easily accessible @bloomberg.com documentary, starring @sdonnan.bsky.social.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0S35...

Trump’s Tariffs Will Loom Large Over the Midterms, Whatever Happens in Iran US history shows that duties have a way of boomeranging back on their backers at election time.

Tariffs and elections have historically been a toxic mix for US presidents. Is this year going to see history repeat itself?

Gift link to my latest for @bloomberg.com & @businessweek.bsky.social:

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

This is a really good post. If the 122 tariffs were really about a balance of payments crisis equities and bond markets would not be nearly as sanguine.

Trump Pegs New Tariffs to a Payments Crisis That Experts Doubt Exists With his move to impose new global tariffs, US President Donald Trump isn’t just trying to repair a trade policy dismantled by a Supreme Court rebuke. He’s also declaring the world’s largest economy i...

We should be talking more about the fact the president of the world’s largest economy just declared it’s facing a payments crisis.

Once, that would have caused turmoil in financial markets. Now it’s just another reason for tariffs.

My latest for @bloomberg.com:

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Trump Privately Weighs Quitting USMCA Trade Pact He Negotiated President Donald Trump is privately musing about exiting the North American trade pact, people familiar with the matter said, injecting further uncertainty about the deal’s future into pivotal renegot...

Reports are that Trump is "privately musing about exiting the North American trade pact."

Deep dive by @joshwingrovebbg.bsky.social into what we know about the upcoming USMCA review.

Trump Follows in Rebuild of Global Trading Order He’s Dismantling Trump has only concluded five trade deals, with a dozen others remaining mere frameworks

Hanging over it all are myriad questions over Trump’s intentions with China. The suspicion of many allies and experts being that he is more interested in striking a commercially driven trade deal than isolating an existential rival.

by @sdonnan.bsky.social

The US Is Flirting With Its First-Ever Population Decline America’s population wasn’t expected to start falling until 2081. Trump’s immigration crackdown means it could happen as soon as this year.

Trump’s immigration policies mean the US is flirting with a historic milestone: The first population decline in its history.

My latest Weekend Essay for
@bloomberg.com:

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The US Is Flirting With Its First-Ever Population Decline America’s population wasn’t expected to start falling until 2081. Trump’s immigration crackdown means it could happen as soon as this year.

As Trump cracks down on immigration and the nation ponders its appetite for his methods, America’s population is starting to show the effects.

The US Is Flirting With Its First-Ever Population Decline America’s population wasn’t expected to start falling until 2081. Trump’s immigration crackdown means it could happen as soon as this year.

Trump’s immigration policies mean the US is flirting with a historic milestone: The first population decline in its history.

My latest Weekend Essay for
@bloomberg.com:

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

US and China Flip the Global Script as Capital Flows Reverse As the US draws back, China is again dispersing capital globally, leading the rest of the world to confront a fundamental change in their economic relationships with both superpowers.

The US and China are flipping the script.

As the US tries to bring factories home, China Inc is stepping into the vacuum, investing in new production outside China.

My latest @bloomberg.com Big Take with help from colleagues around the world.

www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

US and China Flip the Global Script as Capital Flows Reverse As the US draws back, China is again dispersing capital globally, leading the rest of the world to confront a fundamental change in their economic relationships with both superpowers.

The US and China are flipping the script.

As the US tries to bring factories home, China Inc is stepping into the vacuum, investing in new production outside China.

My latest @bloomberg.com Big Take with help from colleagues around the world.

www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Trump’s $21 Trillion Investment Boom Is Actually Short Trillions Bloomberg Economics analysis shows real investment commitments closer to $7 trillion and many of those are in question.

Trump keeps hailing an investment boom that he says is set to top $21 trillion in pledges from companies & countries. But as we write in today's @bloomberg.com Big Take the reality is a third of that. And even that $7 trillion faces major questions.

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

Is Trump Right About the US Getting $21 Trillion in Investment? The White House lists nearly $9.6 trillion in new investment pledges, less than what’s boasted by Trump.

@sdonnan.bsky.social on Trump's $21 trn foreign investment claim (& what we had to give up in order to get what we did get which was a lot < $21 trn) #EconSky

www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

@sdonnan.bsky.social joins @the11thHour to break down Trump's investment claims.

"If [the administration] was honest about what the investment is, you and I would be doing a segment celebrating investment in America, instead of fact checking it." - @stephruhle.bsky.social.

Trump’s $21 Trillion Investment Boom Is Actually Short Trillions Bloomberg Economics analysis shows real investment commitments closer to $7 trillion and many of those are in question.

Gift Link !

Trump’s $21 Trillion Investment Boom Is Actually Short Trillions

Bloomberg Economics analysis shows real investment commitments closer to $7 trillion & many of those are in question.
www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202... via @bloomberg.com @sdonnan.bsky.social Chris Kennedy Adrienne Tong

Trump’s $21 Trillion Investment Boom Is Actually Short Trillions Bloomberg Economics analysis shows real investment commitments closer to $7 trillion and many of those are in question.

Trump keeps hailing an investment boom that he says is set to top $21 trillion in pledges from companies & countries. But as we write in today's @bloomberg.com Big Take the reality is a third of that. And even that $7 trillion faces major questions.

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

What happens when Trump’s trade wars hit a family-owned North Carolina sawmill.

I took a roadtrip recently for @davidgura.bsky.social’s @bloomberg.com Big Take podcast.
www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2...

Bloomberg Economics - Geoeconomics - Climate Economist/Econometrician

📣Bloomberg Economics is hiring a climate specialist:
bloomberg.avature.net/careers/JobD...

They Voted for Trump. His Tariffs Took Down Their Family-Owned Sawmill

After President Trump launched his trade war, a family-run lumber company that has been around for almost a century decided to close one of its mills.

"Liberation Day" "damn near liberated me from our business," Wilson Jones told Shawn Donnan. "I'm bitter about that."

What happens when Trump’s trade wars hit a family-owned North Carolina sawmill.

I took a roadtrip recently for @davidgura.bsky.social’s @bloomberg.com Big Take podcast.
www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2...

China Gains in Asia Great Game Are ‘Undeniable,’ Biden Official Says China has intensified its competition with the US for influence in the Indo-Pacific, and Beijing’s recent gains in the regional contest are “undeniable,” former Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said.

China has intensified its competition with the US for influence in the Indo-Pacific, and Beijing’s recent gains in the regional contest are “undeniable,” says former Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell.

Trump's Reordered Trading System The US president is signing trade agreements and "framework" deals on a tour of Asia this week

Welcome to the choose-your-own-adventure economy.

My latest for the @bloomberg.com Supply Lines newsletter on what this past weekend told us about the plot lines in this global economy. And why they all look fraught…

www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

Trump's Reordered Trading System The US president is signing trade agreements and "framework" deals on a tour of Asia this week

Welcome to the choose-your-own-adventure economy.

My latest for the @bloomberg.com Supply Lines newsletter on what this past weekend told us about the plot lines in this global economy. And why they all look fraught…

www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

The AI boom is propping up the US economy. It's also gobbling up all the people, power & capital.

One consequence: It's impeding the manufacturing renaissance Trump wants.

For @bloomberg.com with the great Brooke Sutherland, Mark Niquette & Alex Tanzi.

www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

What We Still Get Wrong About Trump’s Approach to China The US president’s “tough on China” reputation belies his interest in striking a deal with the nation, not decoupling from it.

"Trump’s views on China have a remarkably consistent thread running through them: He’s often the contrarian in the room pushing back against advisers urging him to crack down on an existential rival."

My @bloomberg.com Weekend Essay on why Trump's no China hawk.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

What We Still Get Wrong About Trump’s Approach to China The US president’s “tough on China” reputation belies his interest in striking a deal with the nation, not decoupling from it.

"Trump’s views on China have a remarkably consistent thread running through them: He’s often the contrarian in the room pushing back against advisers urging him to crack down on an existential rival."

My @bloomberg.com Weekend Essay on why Trump's no China hawk.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...