Read the full rapid analysis here: www.worldweatherattribution.org/record-shatt... (4/4)

Heat is the #1 weather-related killer in the U.S.. Early-season is especially dangerous because our bodies haven't acclimatised yet.

As @frediotto.bsky.social puts it: "The seasons that people and nature were used to for centuries are disappearing...Our policy must catch up to this reality." (3/4)

Two figures showing the forecast temperature anomaly over the study region as well as the seasonal cycle of daily maximum temperatures and where this year's event sits.

This event is now about 4 times more likely than it would have been just 10 years ago, and about 1.4°F (0.8°C) hotter.

The mercury is rising about 4.7°F (2.6°C) higher than it would have done in a pre-industrial world. (2/4)

Sunset over LA - one of the areas currently experiencing extreme early season heat.

RAPID ANALYSIS: It would be ‘virtually impossible’ for the record-breaking March heat currently scorching the U.S. West to occur without climate change.

We are seeing summer-like temperatures arrive exceptionally early from the Pacific to the Rockies this week. 🧵1/4

“We are living through challenging times, and this honour reinforces the vital role that science plays in the public interest. In the face of these challenges we will continue to play our part highlighting the links between worsening weather extremes and the carbon our societies continue to burn.”

In receiving the award, @frediotto.bsky.social said:

"I am deeply honoured to receive this recognition, but this award also belongs to my team. Science is a collaborative endeavour and the global impact of World Weather Attribution is a direct result of their tireless work and dedication too."

Germany's ambassador to the U.K. Susanne Baumann presents Professor Friederike Otto with The Cross of the Order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany

The award was presented by the German Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Susanne Baumann, on March 17 2026 in London.

@frediotto.bsky.social was nominated by Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s foreign minister from 2021 to 2025 and now President of the U.N. General Assembly.

Germany's ambassador to the U.K. Susanne Baumann presents Professor Friederike Otto with The Cross of the Order of Merit of the Federal Republic of Germany

We’re excited to announce that @frediotto.bsky.social has been awarded Germany’s highest honour for her groundbreaking work on climate science and extreme weather.

The award recognises her pivotal role in revolutionising attribution science: connecting extreme weather events to climate change.

After more than 70 killed in Brazil landslides, scientists at @wwattribution.bsky.social warn deadly downpours will worsen with further warming of the climate.

buff.ly/OUV8Wz0

Timeseries of February rainfall in Juiz de Fora, highlighting the exceptionally high rain in 2026 of 752 mm, the second highest record in 1979 was only just above 400 mm.

In a rapidly warming world, landslides in high-risk areas are happening sooner rather than later. Making it paramount to reduce exposure & stop the rapid warming. New @wwattribution.bsky.social study on Juiz de Fora landslides www.worldweatherattribution.org/unplanned-ur...

As @frediotto.bsky.social puts it: "Each year that we delay acting with the urgency required loads the dice further in favour of more weather extremes that will take lives and destroy livelihoods." (4/4)

Read the full study here: www.worldweatherattribution.org/unplanned-ur...

Picture of landslide damage in hillside communities in Juiz de Fora, Brazil

The disaster also highlights the vulnerability of many urban areas in Brazil. Rapid growth onto steep slopes and floodplains has replaced natural drainage.

Many residents didn't receive warnings or stayed behind due to lack of trust in government protection. 3/4

(Photo: Ricardo Stuckert / PR)

President Lula of Brazil comforts a woman displaced by landslides in Juiz de Fora

A clear call to action: Models show that as we head toward 2.6°C of warming - as predicted by the end of the century under current policies - the intensity of these events is expected to increase by an estimate of 7%. 2/4

(Photo: Ricardo Stuckert/PR)

Graph showing accumulated rainfall in Juiz de Fora, Brazil in the month of February since 1961. It shows 2026 as by far the wettest on record.

New study: Intense rainfall - like the deluge behind Brazil’s recent fatal landslides - will intensify as the planet continues to warm.

Over 70 were killed in the state of Minas Gerais in late February with Juiz de Fora - the worst impacted city - seeing its wettest month on record. 🧵 1/4

The storms caused over 50 deaths and displaced hundreds of thousands of people, mostly in Morocco, and caused billions of Euros in damages.

You can read the full study here: www.worldweatherattribution.org/increasingly... 5/5

The southern region was impacted by an atmospheric river that gained additional moisture by passing over a marine heatwave in the Atlantic.

Our colleagues at @climatecentral.org found that this marine heatwave was made 10x more likely by climate change. 4/5

Observational-based data shows that the highest rainfall days are now approximately one-third wetter than they were before the planet warmed by 1.3°C

Carbon emissions are responsible for about an 11% increase in rainfall intensity in the northern region we studied. 3/5

In Grazalema, southern Spain, over a year’s worth of rain fell in just a matter of days forcing the town’s population to evacuate. 2/5

NEW STUDY: Winter downpours are getting heavier in parts of Spain, Portugal and Morocco as the region recovers from a month of relentless storms.

Between mid-January and mid-February nine named storms brought torrential rain hurricane force winds causing major damage and disruption. 1/5

a map of southern south America showing the location of burning fires with lots of red dots.

Patagonian wildfires show how denying climate change & pushing environmental destruction make the reality of climate change much worse. Threatening the destruction of trees that have been alive when the bronze age collapsed. @wwattribution.bsky.social www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...

Some of world’s oldest trees hit by climate-fuelled wildfires in Patagonia Wildfires that left 23 people dead were made about three times more likely by global heating, researchers say

Some of world’s oldest trees hit by climate-fuelled wildfires in Patagonia

- Some Alerce trees had stood undisturbed for thousands of years, say researchers, but global heating is now supercharging blazes

@wwattribution.bsky.social
#climatecrisis
Story by me
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...

Read the full analysis here: www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...

5/5

While climate change is the primary driver, other factors are at play. La Niña also played a smaller role in these dry conditions.

Critically, large budget cuts for fire management in Argentina are believed to have amplified the impact of the blaze there. 4/5

We found a very clear climate change signal, with the weather behind these wildfires made about 2.5 to 3x more likely.

Impacted areas are also receiving about 20-25% less rainfall than they would have in a world without fossil fuel burning, providing lots of dry vegetation for fires to feed on 3/5

Between Jan 17-19, wildfires in Chile’s Biobío & Ñuble regions killed 23 people and destroyed 1,000+ homes.

Across the border in Argentina, blazes have torn through Los Alerces National Park and are still burning. 2/5

NEW STUDY: Climate change is fueling deadly fires that threaten some of the world’s oldest living things: the ancient Alerce trees of Patagonia, which can live for over 3,000 years.

Our analysis shows that human-induced warming is making weather conditions more conducive to fire. 1/5

As long as we continue to burn fossil fuels, the science tells us that these events will grow worse.

Full report and data here: 🔗 www.worldweatherattribution.org/la-nina-clim... (4/4)

The impact is a "textbook case of climate injustice."

90% of homes in some impacted areas are made of sun-dried earth - structures that simply cannot withstand rainfall of this intensity.

Vulnerable communities are paying the price for a crisis they didn't cause. (3/4)

The current weak La Niña phase naturally brings wetter conditions to the region, but it is now operating in a much warmer, moisture-rich world.

While still a rare 1-in-50 year event, climate change acted as a "force multiplier," turning a heavy rain event into a more deadly deluge. (2/4)

💡New Study: Southern Africa was hit by intense rainfall this month. Our analysis has found that downpours in the region are now 40% more intense than they were in pre-industrial times.

The resulting floods across Mozambique, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Eswatini have been catastrophic. 🧵 (1/4)