By contrast, the latest GFS deterministic run has a big change to the weather shortly into May, with slow-moving lows bringing substantial rainfall.

However, it was among the most unsettled runs relative to its ensemble.

In the ECMWF 00z deterministic run for Europe, something is missing over most of Ireland, the UK, & parts of France: rainfall.

There are places with zero or trace amounts all the way out to 5th May.

This has been true of several recent runs from the model.

Saturday might see signs of a change begin to encroach from the west, though it might instead remain sunny more widely; forecast models disagree on this.

Most models keep predominantly fine weather going through Sunday & into next week.

For Friday it's a rinse & repeat, the wind again a bit lighter than before. A very fine day for those who can make something of it.

By Thursday, the dry air is forecast to advance further west so that most or all areas experience sunny weather.

The wind is expected to ease a bit too, making for a warmer feeling day. Parts of south-western England & western Wales could nudge the 20°C mark.

Tomorrow, this dry air is forecast to bring clear skies for many, with the strong sunshine battling against a brisk easterly wind. Warmer in the south than today.

Ireland & south-western UK will be subject to more cloud in association with a low close to the southwest.

Parts of Ireland & southern UK are having to be patient as a dry airmass displaces a relatively moist one that's been delivering mostly cloudy skies today.

Where exposed to the brisk wind, it feels cool out of the sunshine, & only just warm within it. Classic mid-spring weather.

April 2026 has so far been notably warm for the Hadley mean Central England Temperature, ranking 12th as of 18th.

The week ahead will attempt to drive it downward as the nights dip close to freezing. However, the days might offset that, more so than GFS predicts (biased low).

Had a surprisingly sunny mid-afternoon onward here in Verwood today, thanks to some more stable air drawn from the Bristol Channel.

This phenomenon requires just the right wind direction & speed. This is the most pronounced I can ever recall seeing it on satellite imagery.

Conditions generally became more stable each side of a weak weather front crossing the UK this afternoon.

Result being a particularly pronounced belt of cloud along the front, with fair weather & temperatures widely reaching at least 14°C either side.

I'm keeping an eye on the number of runs that extend the high toward central Europe later next week, as this comes with a chance that the high splits in two, which would be a much warmer scenario for NW Europe.

It's not represented much yet but the trend has me wondering.

As a result, the forecast is notably dry for much of northern Europe, while below average temperatures are mainly in central-eastern Europe & sandwiched by anomalous warmth to the southwest & north.

Stalled lows to the west look likely to keep Iberia anomalously warm/hot.

Forecast modelling has been coalescing on a scenario that places high pressure just northwest of the UK for much of next week.

An increasing number of runs have the high extending toward central Europe later on, which steers cold air toward the eastern half of the continent.

Some lightning over Nuneaton area, scaring off all the birds 😂

A fair bit of lightning is being detected along portions of a squall line currently departing Wales. Cardiff appears to have had some thunder.

The section over southwest England was also showing some activity but this has recently quietened.

All heading ~north-eastward.

I've not seen such an angry-looking weather front in these parts since well before spring.

It's moving quite quickly, taking about 30 minutes to pass through, which at a mean rain rate of around 8 mm per hour suggests around 4 mm accumulation. About 7% of the April LTA here.

So I believe there exists a plausible scenario where complications over Greenland result in the high being centred closer to Europe, but still far enough northwest that temperatures range from a bit below to very near the 1991-2020 average.

The cool weather signal emerges in association with high pressure establishing in the vicinity of Greenland.

In the past few years such 'blocking' highs have often turned out to be positioned further southeast than modelled at this range, with a weaker effect on temperatures.

The latest ECMWF ensemble leans cooler than average for all of 19th-29th April in the UK (Reading shown as an example), with some notably chilly scenarios in the mix.

OTOH there are enough warmer ones that a cool outcome can't yet be presumed with good confidence.

Later in the week & into the one after, it seems just about anything might unfold as the blocking high either heads toward N. America, moves closer to NW Europe, or moves across the Arctic Ocean.

In Europe scenarios range from cool & wet to v. warm (or even hot) & dry.

...which is awkward for forecasting because the low to W scenario is relatively warm but potentially wet in western Europe & cool further east, while the high to W scenario is cool & showery for western Europe, & warmer but perhaps very wet further east.

Much to be sorted out!

Forecast models are keen on a high latitude blocking pattern setting up for the Atlantic-Europe sector for next week, with high pressure to the NW of Europe.

This comes with either a low or a high just W of Europe - there's no agreement on which it will be...

Last spring & this one so far both share a propensity for rain-bearing fronts & showers to fizzle out on approach to this area, more so than I would consider typical.

Plenty of sunshine with the dry weather too, though 2026 is at least 30 hours short of 2003, 2020, & 2025.

Last year was the 4th driest on record for 16th March to 10th April in my local area.

This year is now the new 4th driest.

Talk about a familiar scene!

Driest on record 2020 with just 3.5 mm (this year 5.1 mm).

3 of the 5 driest within the past 7 years, intriguing.

Well this just happened 🌅

With that happening in mid-late spring, there's an increased chance that those circulation anomalies have dispersed by the summer, which reduces the likelihood of high latitude blocking patterns (which tend to make for a cooler, perhaps wetter N Europe) dominating that season.

However much the troposphere responds, we should see the stratospheric anomalies become confined to the lower reaches, their duration then depending on how much troposphere-led events work with or against it.

Which would mean persistent high-latitude blocking patterns become favoured for mid-late April, making for slow-changing, in places highly anomalous weather (be it cool or hot, dry or wet) in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes.

ECMWF's modelling is less keen on this.

In the stratosphere, circulation anomalies relating to a major sudden stratospheric warming event in early March have been gradually descending toward the troposphere (layer of atmosphere we live in).

Events in the tropics might make the troposphere receptive to those anomalies...

ECMWF's ensemble has since shifted markedly warmer for mid-April onward, in stark contrast to GFS' ensemble which has no clear indication of a warm-up & then leans cooler from 22nd.

GFS seems to be seeing more of a high latitude blocking response to stratospheric forcing.