New blog post (it's been a while): Make Meta-Analysis Great Again.
This is a serious proposal. Please amplify to whoever might be interested, especially if they have money.
steamtraen.blogspot.com/2026/04/make...
Not a good way to have a productive discussion but just saying that 10 years of meta science has produced a lot of bad papers. Who is fixing that problem?
I just don't think general statements are justified or helpful. Personality psych has a validity problem, not a reproducibility problem.
The Journal of Pseud-Scientific Psychology that published the Bem paper hasn't really changed despite badges, adversarial collaborations, and multiverse analyses. The real test is openness to real criticism.
replicationindex.com/2025/12/05/w...
I know you are doing good work. Just wondering whether we need a "fake crisis" to sell "make science better."
50% success rate of replication studies may sound bad to the public but it is not a crisis. Also, we can predict replicability with some accuracy, not perfectly of course.
Does it still work. Maybe after 15 years of crisis, it may be time to focus on the solutions and how to improve things - and may real signs of improvement. As a taxpayer that would convince me more than say "put more money to the never ending crisis?
David against Goliath, Asterix against the Roman empire. We love the underdog. Well, here the underdog in statistics lands a punch in the face of giant Gelman. Two statisticians who want to remain anonymous verified the claim.
replicationindex.com/2026/04/02/g...
I bet $1,000 that this claim is false. How can economics be worse than psychology that has 90% success rates and less than 50% power and sample sizes in the double digits. Something went wrong here somewhere for such a general claim.
A history of the top marginal tax rates on the wealthiest Americans:
1940: 81%
1950: 84%
1960: 91%
1970: 72%
1980: 70%
1990: 28%
2000: 40%
2010: 35%
For 50 years, corporate backed politicians in Congress have slashed taxes to line the pockets of their wealthy donors.
Yes. Zweet is a normal Dutch word. It means sweat.
I guess my unconscious is trying to tell me that he is really a sweet guy. :)
Gelman tells us how to respond to criticism. But what if the criticism is invalid? Here I show how to respond to valid and invalid criticism.
replicationindex.com/2026/03/31/l...
When a 5,000 citation paper gets shredded, does it make a sound? (not when word war III is happening).
In a scientific utopia, co-author @briannosek.bsky.social would comment online before we see a comment in a peer-reviewed journal in 5 years.
#Metascience Button et al.'s Power Failure is a seminal meta-science paper. But it has a major flaw. It confuses unconditional power (median power of all studies, 21%) with conditional power (power / H1 is true). This has big implications for discussions of false positives.
When three reviewers (1 human, 2 AI) spot the same fatal flaw, why did the authors not see it or ask AI for a pre-submission review?
replicationindex.com/2026/03/05/d...
Did hindsight bias replicate? 😃
Oversight Democrats have been investigating the handling of serious allegations by a survivor against Donald Trump when she was a minor. We have now confirmed that some of the documents related to this survivor appear to be missing from the files.
Here’s what we know ⬇️
Meta-psychology is the scientific study of psychological scientists' behavior. They like z-curve as much, as rats liked a Skinner box. Too bad. Now you know how it feels to be a subject and not a participant.
Babbage, 1830, discussing the problem that scientists selectively report findings that they want to be true.
Confirmation bias is a strong human tendency. This is why we need to design science in a way that prevents conformation bias from leading us away from the truth.
In standard scientific reports in psych 96% of first mentioned main hypotheses are supported. In Registered Reports, this is 46%. The 96% is clearly biased (given true H1 rate and power). Lack of transparency means we do not know the true baserate.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
The replication crisis is only over when psychology journals stop publishing such biased articles that blame replication failures on replicators and not the use of p-hacking in original studies. Pathetic.
replicationindex.com/2026/02/13/r...
Is this finally the baseball quote, where somebody compared their 1/3 success rate to a 33% batting average in baseball?
I think it's best for everyone to understand that the unified class project of billionaires right now is to do to white collar workers what globalization and neoliberalism did to blue collar workers.
A Federal judge in Oregon ruled that ICE can NOT use chemicals on protestors for exercising their 1st amendment rights.
youtu.be/gvL9ckyrDTM?...
I am not a doctor.
I am a doctor of philosophy.
That just means I doctored my dissertation.
😃😁😇
I want to laugh at it but sadly it’s true.
Next level simulation work. The simulation is still running and you can check the results as they accumulate. Z-curve produces 95% CI with 95% coverage even with k = 50 sig. results across many realistic scenarios.
replicationindex.com/2026/02/03/c...
“Unconscionable,” Jon thought as he found an email address online for the lead prosecutor, Joseph Dernbach, who was named in the story. Peering through metal-rimmed glasses, Jon opened Gmail on his computer monitor. “Mr. Dernbach, don’t play Russian roulette with H’s life,” he wrote. “Err on the side of caution. There’s a reason the US government along with many other governments don’t recognise the Taliban. Apply principles of common sense and decency.” That was it. In five minutes, Jon said, he finished the note, signed his first and last name, pressed send and hoped his plea would make a difference. Five hours and one minute later, Jon was watching TV with his wife when an email popped up in his inbox. He noticed it on his phone. “Google,” the message read, “has received legal process from a Law Enforcement authority compelling the release of information related to your Google Account.”
A retiree wrote this email to a DHS attorney. Within five hours, DHS demanded Google turn over records for his account.
A Kafkaesque form of domestic surveillance, intimidating Americans for lawful speech.
New from us at the Post: www.washingtonpost.com/investigatio... @johnwoodrowcox.bsky.social
