Again, if you want explain why trust in universities has declined in the last decade, & you don't benchmark that decline against contemporaneous declines in trust in <every other societal institution> in 🇺🇸, then you cannot identify variables internal to universities as the main or sole explanations.
I've always wanted to know the story behind the proliferation of this image of the Fort Pillow Massacre.
kevinmlevin.substack.com/p/nathan-bed...
Yep. We know things will regress at some point but we don't know where the regression line is anymore.
After being released from his soccer club in 2018, he quit sports to become a software engineer. While watching the NFL on TV one day, his wife told him he could do that. He worked for 3 lonely years practicing. He is now the best kicker on the planet. Never, ever, ever, stop listening to your wife.
Yeah, this Ohio poll is an RV poll weighted to 2024, and that’s honestly fine this far out from a general The reason we had so many Sherrill +1, Spanberger +8, Miyares +3 polls last year was pollsters weighting their *LV* samples to 2024, and we saw that’s not the environment Quote Chaz Nuttycombe @ChazNuttycombe · 40m No, the fact Vivek has a +1 point lead with an electorate weighted to 2024 means that he is more likely than not *currently* underwater w/ the actual OH electorate this year. x.com/bgianelli/stat…
People don’t need to “debunk” it because the poll isn’t claiming to be an LV poll for 2026 Like Chaz said, this poll does show that Rs have lost a lot of ground before accounting for differential turnout And that’s consistent with RV generic ballot polling from the NYT, etc
Good reminders for consuming polls this far out.
Three cabinet secretaries gone, all women. It's too on the nose to even point out but I'll be updating this chart, today!
meredithconroy.substack.com/p/the-number...
"If I take your race away, and there you are, all strung out. And all you got is your little self, and what is that? What are you without racism? Are you any good? Are you still strong? Are you still smart? Do you still like yourself?"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=6S7z...
Bananas. Not what this says about winning MS. But what this says about OH, TX, and… FL? Holy moly.
Why Gas Prices Go Up Fast and Take So Long to Fall
via @lydiadepillis.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/b...
The 1996 welfare retrenchment actually changed policy (for better or for worse).The 2025 welfare retrenchment-which will hurt more people than the 1996 reform-is administrative in nature. It's all about making it impossible for eligible people to actually navigate the system to receive benefits
Abstract We assess the impact of former President Joe Biden’s unprecedented decision to exit the 2024 Presidential race 2 months before election day by analyzing a naturally-occurring experiment surrounding the incumbent President’s decision to exit the 2024 race, a period in which we fielded the second wave (NWave 2 = 831) of a nationally-representative panel study (NWave 1 = 1400), with random invitation assignment (from the original response pool) throughout Wave 2. Pre-registered difference-in-difference (DID) analyses reveal no evidence of significant turnout or down-ballot effects across either the US adult population or partisan subgroups. However, post hoc tests reveal substantial gains in excitement about the 2024 campaign across both the general population and (especially) among self-identified Democrats after President Biden’s decision to drop out. Elevated excitement coincided with (a) increased belief in core democratic principles and (b) increased donation to Democrats up and down the ballot.
Did Biden’s 2024 exit reshape electoral outcomes? @mattmotta.bsky.social, Trujillo, @stecula.bsky.social, Callaghan, @ophiryotam.bsky.social & @drorwalter.bsky.social examine panel data, finding no turnout effects but higher excitement and Democratic engagement. Read more: buff.ly/3CKEZqC
#polsky
THREAD: The IEA global energy review 2026
* CO2 record high, but growth nearly ground to halt
* Clean energy shaved 3bn tonnes off CO2
* Fossil-fuel power pushed into reverse
* Age of Electricity "confirmed"
* "Extraordinary" solar growth
* Batteries up 40%
* EVs up 20%
1/10
the penne opticon
HOT HATCH: There’s a new Hyundai EV in town, the Ioniq 3. I spoke with José Muñoz, Hyundai Motor Company president and CEO, on if it’s coming to the US and whether BYD’s new battery tech concerns him. Read the full story on @wired.com www.wired.com/story/hyunda...
Would it be uncouth to say “check my website where I have dozens of blog posts on writing that might be helpful to get you started”?
Unrelated. This is a really great movie about slowly realizing you might be in purgatory.
The Senate is now close to a tossup. (Gift link)
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/u...
Horseshoe theory comes for the Classics.
We’re defending Western Civilization by kicking Plato and Shakespeare out of university classes.
Globe showing the Atlantic Ocean with arrows depicting the AMOC circulation: warm surface currents (pink/red) flowing northward from the tropics toward the Arctic, and cold deep return currents (blue/purple) flowing southward. The background shows sea surface temperature trends, with a prominent blue cold patch, the "cold blob", south of Greenland, contrasting with warming (orange/red) across the rest of the ocean.
1/ There's a system of ocean currents in the Atlantic that shapes Europe's #climate, drives monsoons, and keeps sea levels stable along the US coast.
In the last 5 years, the scientific evidence that it could collapse has shifted dramatically.
Most people have no idea. 🧵
NEW: After his visit here to Michigan, I walk through @andybeshearky.bsky.social no education agenda.
Back in ‘24, I had the chance to join Beshear in KY in the successful fight against vouchers.
Now, it’s what he’s for on schools that’s winning over Trump voters.
open.substack.com/pub/joshcowe...
Why a Democratic Senate, Once Unthinkable, Is a Real Possibility
Helped by a favorable national environment and strong candidate recruitment, Democrats are tied or ahead in four Republican-held seats, polls show.
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/u...
Scheduling the Bong Hits for Jesus lecture for 4/20 is big dad joke energy. firstamendmentmuseum.org/exhibits/on-...
Title page of our paper, “The Politics of Black Classification: Sociopolitical Cues and Racial Perception,” with Lauren Davenport (Stanford) and Hunter Rendleman (UC Berkeley), dated April 14, 2026. Abstract: What makes someone Black in American society today? From Donald Trump questioning Kamala Harris’s racial identity to Joe Biden’s claim that hesitant Black voters “ain’t Black,” American politics frequently brings questions of racial authenticity and belonging to the surface. Yet political science often approaches race as a fixed attribute rather than a social construction. Here, we seek to understand how Americans define blackness in social and political life. Using a conjoint experiment with a racially diverse sample that includes Black, white, and mixed race Black-white respondents, we evaluate how ascribed and acquired traits influence perceptions of blackness. The results show that inherited characteristics—particularly parentage and skin tone, which are the strongest determinants of racial classification—play a central role, while sociopolitical cues such as partisanship, neighborhood context, and spousal race also influence racial classification. Using a continuous measure, we also show that respondents make graded assessments of blackness rather than purely binary classifications, with some individuals perceived as more Black than others. Black respondents are more likely than white respondents to classify a broader set of profiles as Black, consistent with a more inclusive understanding of racial membership, yet they also place greater emphasis on shared political identity. These findings clarify how racial categories are socially constructed and why that construction carries real political and social consequences.
Our paper, “The Politics of Black Classification: Sociopolitical Cues and Racial Perception” (w/ Lauren Davenport & @hrendleman.bsky.social), has been conditionally accepted at Perspectives on Politics!
Sharing abstract below. Long time coming, but we are really proud of this paper.
More soon!
New: We found out how much money Nick Fuentes makes from "superchats": $900,000 since the start of Trump's second term. Here's the story of Kristine in Ohio, a food-truck operator who became his most frequent donor, despite not making much money herself: wapo.st/4mERkhv
thank you, wife
A lot of people are worried about midterm disruptions, but what's a serious fear and what's just dooming? We asked 37 experts. www.votebeat.org/national/202...
Just a professor standing in front of BlueSky demoralized because exams my students used to get a mean of 83% on prior to 2020 are now failed in large numbers. It seems that their ability to APPLY concepts to new contexts/domains has all but disappeared.
I love these students & I am worried.
That’s my jam.
The 2024 election had the largest Black-White turnout gap in more than three decades. It's a crisis, my friends.
goodauthority.org/news/2024-br...
