With a number of contracts hitting key deadlines on Monday, most teams should be just about done with releases until the fall. Of my 59 projected cuts:
- 32 cuts
- 6 paycuts
- 2 retirements
- 4 trades
- 7 still possible
- 8 staying put
+ 22 missed cuts & 9 missed paycuts
Of the 19 remaining, 9 have key contract triggers this week (according to info collected by OverTheCap), so their respective teams would be almost certain to take action is they intended to make a cut
Some notables of my 24 remaining cut predictions:
- O.Brown has reported signed with CIN through 2027
- Dixon had his option exercised by TB
- Singletary & Hockenson agreed to pay cuts
- Kamara pseudo restructured, still could be cut
- 19 others: ?
We're now officially into the new league year. Of my 59 expected cap casualties:
- 30 have been released
- 2 retired
- 3 traded
+ 22 releases that I did not predict
😂😂😂 I would let you get away with it!!
Below are the 24 QB contracts of 3+ years that have had a new money APY between 2% & 14% of the salary cap at time of signing.
Zero of those deals have been between 4.6% ($13.8m in 2026) & 8.9% ($26.8m in 2026). Malik Willis signed for 7.5% ($22.5m).
Data: OverTheCap
Latest update of my cap casualty predictions. So far: 25 releases that I expected, 17 that I did not.
The Raiders will be on the hook for $58.5m for Geno Smith's single season in Las Vegas, the most of any one-and-done player in league history. Here are the top 30 largest cash earners for players who only appeared in one season for a team:
Among my 59 predicted cap casualties, 17 have been released. There have been 11 releases that I failed to predict.
While going through my team offseason previews, I settled on 59 players as expected cap casualties this offseason. So far, 9 of those players have been cut and 1 has retired. There have been 4 players that I didn't expect to be cut.
Think this is a good illustration of the positions where you can likely find quality players in free agency. Will be plenty of young talent available at RB, LB, and DB. Pickings are slim at QB, WR, and especially OT.
Two more up this morning:
All of these pieces feature some of my own commentary on each item, plus other relevant info that doesn't appear in these graphs.
6) This all culminates with a projection of "Excess Cap Space", which is to say the amount of 2026 cap space a team can dedicate to additional cap hits this year (above the league minimum) after accounting for cuts, tags, draftees, practice squads, and in-season wiggle room.
5) Bringing back my spatial cap hit graphs for this as well
4) Players who have a contract set to expire
3) Players under team control in 2026 on offense & defense. Includes some basic cap/cash details, game counts by role in 2025, and PFF %tile in 2025. Also features additional details for players with more complex contracts.
2) Recap of each game in 2025 season with milestones, spreads, opponent rankings, and EPA/p game percentiles.
1) Historical results from the last 10 season. Features EPA/p percentiles, records, and lists key personnel.
Keep forgetting to drop updates here, but I've now posted offseason previews for 11 teams and I'm working on the remaining 21. A thread of what is included in each of these:
During the 2025 season, I tracked the Browns performance against 17 metrics, beyond actual wins & losses.
The final tally for my benchmarks include 11 "wins" & 6 "losses", although there were a handful of wins that didn't feel great.
🔗 More on that in my full write-up below:
Here is a look at where teams would sit in the draft order with an opposite result in Week 18.
Assuming the Raiders still go on to win in the late window on Sunday, the Giants win over the Cowboys cost them the top overall pick.
The Browns draft position after Week 18 is very simple.
Beat the Bengals - 7th if WAS loses/ties, 6th if WAS wins.
Lose to the Bengals - Start from 6th & gain one spot for every team that wins: NYG, TEN, NYJ, ARI.
Tie the Bengals - 7th if WAS loses, 6th if WAS wins/ties.
The Browns offense under Kevin Stefanski has struggled to return to the form we saw early in his tenure.
In the last three seasons, the Browns offense hasn't broken inside the top 20 in EPA/play over a six week stretch.
Data: nflreadr
The Browns draft position after Week 18 is very simple.
Beat the Bengals - 7th if WAS loses/ties, 6th if WAS wins.
Lose to the Bengals - Start from 6th & gain one spot for every team that wins: NYG, TEN, NYJ, ARI.
Tie the Bengals - 7th if WAS loses, 6th if WAS wins/ties.
Here is how my proposal works:
An update to my alternative draft ordering proposal that I shared last week!
The Titans jump to the top spot with their Week 16 win and will stay there with one more win or a Jets loss. The winner of this week's NYG-LV game would clinch a pick in the top 5.
