„Profit margins are already near historic highs. Energy and fertiliser stocks are surging in anticipation of stellar profits. The people who own those assets will be fine. Workers facing rising prices and stagnant wages will not.“
I‘m glad that you asked :)
On Sunday, one of Germany’s largest states went to the polls in a closely contested election. What can we learn from the results & how do they relate to looming deindustrialization in one of Germany’s industrial heartlands? A thread with some decriptive patterns from data on 1,101 municipalities. 🧵
1/ I have done a data dive on ‘The Two Deprivations’ and the govt’s Green-Reform dilemma: parables.substack.com/p/the-two-de...
It references the work of @luketryl.bsky.social @robfordmancs.bsky.social
Yesterday, @spiegel.de reported that members of the SPD urged the CDU to re-evaluate their stance towards the LEFT. Our (@wurthmann.bsky.social & @sarahwagner.bsky.social) reserach note shows generational differences in the evaluation of cooperation between the parties.
doi.org/10.1007/s116...
A🧵
2) Abandoning identity politics
Contrary to public beliefs, the centre-left has all but abandoned identity politics. Having become parties of incremental centrism and problem managers they have given up on shaping identities in the knowledge economy. What would a progressive working class identity
The US is often seen as an extreme case where polarization erodes democracy bc partisanship now permeates all everyday sociability and affects. But this is now being contradicted by a whole number of studies. Besides the really interesting new work by @jonadejong.bsky.social, there is... (quick 🧵)
I think it's best for everyone to understand that the unified class project of billionaires right now is to do to white collar workers what globalization and neoliberalism did to blue collar workers.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I feel like I haven’t even been properly lied to about the purposes of this war
“the principles of international law” rather prohibit bombing countries because their leaders “lack legitimacy”.
Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
Crazy support numbers for Zohran Mamdani among young women: 84% (!) of women aged 18-29 voted for Mamdani in the NYC Mayoral Election.
But also important: young men voted MUCH MORE STRONGLY (67%) for Mamdani than old men (37%).
"Die Mehrheit in diesem Land ist rechts, aber bekommt trotzdem eine linke Politik" – dieser Satz ist also nicht analytisch gemeint, sondern strategisch. Er ist nicht da, um etwas zu beschreiben, sondern um etwas zu planen.
www.zeit.de/politik/2025...
Real existierende linke Akademiker:innen mal wieder anders als manche denken:
„Radical left support increases for those who study more than their parents and do not achieve upward class mobility, as well as for those who experience upward class mobility but continue to struggle financially“
An important new paper from my talented, but BlueSky-less PHD Jose Lopes
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Lesenswert!
Nur zur Einordnung:
Kosten illegaler Grenzkontrollen: pro Quartal ca. 30 Millionen €
Kosten durch Jens Spahn verursacht: ca. 3,5 Milliarden €
Kosten durch Steuerbetrug CumCum: ca. 30 Milliarden €
Zusätzliche Gelder, die wir für das Deutschlandticket gebraucht hätten: 800 Millionen.
Warum wir beim Klima zwar alle in einem Boot sitzen, es aber entscheidend ist, dass manche im halbgefluteten Maschinenraum mitfahren und andere auf dem Sonnendeck:
Neuer Artikel zu Klima, Klasse und Konflikt, mit @steffenmau.bsky.social und @thomaslux.bsky.social
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
"Panel data on 41 million voters from 2008 to 2020 and an original survey of 24,433 respondents demonstrate that exposure to partisan neighbors increases party switching."
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...
OK, a🧵: Our new paper studies workers' political consciousness in times of class demobilization.
We show there's more to workers' politics than right-wing resentment. Listening to workers, we reconstruct their moral critiques of money, power & recognition.
Link journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
The takeaway:
👉 Accommodating the radical right on immigration doesn’t win back voters.
👉 It alienates the progressive base.
👉 And it raises the salience of the very issue the radical right owns.
In short: it’s electoral self-harm.
✨Very happy to see my paper "Attitudinal ambivalence toward multiculturalism" out on @jeppjournal.bsky.social !
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
1/8 🧵
Kann man Autobahnen eigentlich wieder abreißen?
chart from Stata showing income groups on the X axis, pr(vv1) - which means probability of having cast a vote for president - on the Y axis. There are 4 lines, one for 2012, for 2016, 2020, and 2024. 2024 is by far the steepest, with a 30 point difference in predicted turnout between those earning over $100k and those earning under $30k. Below are some of the key data points: under $30k in 2024 = 38% predicted turnout 2020 = 48%, 2016 = 51%, 2012 = 58% over $100k in 2024 = 73% predicted turnout 2020 & 2012 also about 73% 2016 = 60%
chart from Excel, X axis is year (2012 - 2024) and Y axis is % turnout. 6 lines: whites in families earning over $100k, white less than $30k, Black over $100k, Black under $30k, Hispanic over $100k, Hispanic under $30k. All three lines for under $30k trend downward - declining turnout across these 4 elections. All three over $100k lines are flat-ish, with a dip in 2016 and a rise back up in 2020. Under $30k Black and Hispanic turnout in 2024 was about 25%, under $30k white turnout about 40%. Over $100k white turnout in 2024 was nearly 80%, over $100k Black & Hispanic turnout both about 60%
Class and race gaps in voting are widening a lot.
I just got results from the CES and voter turnout among low-income people has been declining steadily since 2012 - across racial groups. Only 25% of Black and Hispanic people in households making less than $30k/year voted in 2024.
(small thread)
The cover of the book Paper Stones: A History of Electoral Socialism is on a background of multiple pages of text from digitally accessed journal articles.
In the 19th century as the socialist movement grew in Europe, it faced a choice: whether to participate in elections. The anarchists said no. The remaining socialists waded into electoral battle. This book analyzes that decision and its consequences #booksky
Berlin! Am 19. August stelle ich mein neues Buch vor. Wer Fragen hat oder welche sucht oder einfach was klären will: kommt vorbei, das wird super!
www.rosalux.de/veranstaltun...
What Abou-Chadi et al. show here is not just that conservative migration positions won't help social-democrats to attract voters, but also that left positions on retirement (that is allowing for early retirement) make social-democrats most attractive (and right positions make them less attracitve).
