Very cool @nationalacademies.org report release webinar relevant to the Palcolimate community on "Functions and Criteria for a New Center for Paleoenvironmental Records of Extreme Events". April 29. Sign up! www.nationalacademies.org/projects/DEL...
Abstract: The case is made that machine-learning statistical estimation neither can nor should be expected to supplant physics-based simulation for weather forecasting.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
"Understanding where confidence is justified, and where uncertainties remain, is important for interpreting current El Niño headlines responsibly." www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...
We now have 13 different models with 637 different ensemble members with El Niño forecasts out through at least September 2026.
They suggest a best estimate of 2.2C for September; interestingly ECMWF (which was seen as particularly hot when it came out) is right around the middle of the pack:
No matter how you feel about this mission with so much else going on, you can’t deny that it’s offering some pretty introspective views of our place in the vastness of space
Here is a great example of how to use Artemis II to talk about the important things we want to talk about theconversation.com/earthrise-to...
Photo taken during the Artemis II showing Earth in the background, setting behind the lunar surface
NASA isn't why the US doesn't have universal healthcare, or a social safety net. The US doesn't have those things because politicians with the power to provide them choose specifically not to (with varying levels of support from voters). Enthusiasm for human spaceflight doesn't drive that choice.
Wow!
And you can barely see the atmosphere. It's so thin; you can feel how fragile it is.
A full disc image of Earth, as seen from the Orion Crew Module. The planet is a pale blue, swirling with white clouds and glowing slightly lighter blue in place from reflected light. At lower left, a large brown landmass is Africa, with Spain and Portugal with twinkling lights where the planet curves. At top right, auroras glow in a thin green glow, just barely separated from the planet's surface. Earth is set against the black of space (pic: NASA/R.Wiseman)
More context on this #Artemis II image:
* This is the night side, lit by moonlight. You can see city lights in Spain & Portugal, & a sliver of day at lower right
* The Sun is entirely behind Earth, which makes it a kind of solar eclipse, but w/ Earth doing the eclipsing instead of the Moon:
☀️🌍🚀🌕
Ultimately, our results (in this high-resolution model ensemble) highlight the benefits of early climate mitigation for reducing extreme precipitation events, while also underscoring the complexity of regional responses, which are shaped by seasonality, local-scale processes, and other factors.
Orion on its way with Orion in the background? www.nasa.gov/missions/art...
"The real threat is a slow, comfortable drift toward not understanding what you're doing. Not a dramatic collapse. Not Skynet. Just a generation of researchers who can produce results but can't produce understanding."
There are now 10 toilets in Space
International Space Station: 4
Crew Dragon Docked at ISS: 1
Soyuz Docked at ISS: 1
Tiangong Space Station: 2
Shenzhou Docked at TSS: 1
Artemis II on way around Moon: 1
This will be the first time a toilet has left low earth orbit!
Terrible headline. We need to be concerned about these changes, but the research and article says the exact opposite:
Maybe Bluesky will get mad at me for saying this, but this is a bizarre headline because if you actually read the article it says the exact opposite.
Please consider reading the whole article before doom-sharing the irresponsible headline.
The Canary Islands enveloped in dust as waves and vortices swirl off of them.
A fascinating, complex view.
Distance from earth record is not the mission, it's just how the orbit is working out.
Artemis II is expected to set a new record for the farthest humans have ever traveled from Earth www.nbcnews.com/science/spac...
Geosciences is at *74* total awards this fiscal year (which is now half over).
Compared to 279 by the same point last year and between 330 and 440 by the same point 2021-2024.
13 grants were made in the month of March.
The multiple 112° readings today are just 1° short of the national April record, which happened in Death Valley with 113° on April 24, 1946 and also on April 22, 2012. Note that those occurred in late April (h/t to weather historian Chris Burt).
Map showing the western U.S. experiencing a record-breaking heatwave in March 2026
Beautiful in the mid-troposphere, devastating at the surface.
Screenshot showing the Climate Shift Index from Climate Central for March 19, 2026. There is a change in likelihood of CSI 5 across nearly the entire Western USA.
Even in a world of extremes, some events still stand out to me. This is one. All-time monthly records are being shattered.
The size of this ridge across the western U.S. is truly striking for March, and we see a very clear climate change connection.
Explore: csi.climatecentral.org/climate-shif...
Productivity this and efficiency that. Let's not worry about training the next generation of scientists.
One thing I've been stressing is that, if Hormuz traffic remained stopped, the monumental oil supply shock will manifest as sharp price spikes in wealthy nations that sap disposable incomes
In poorer countries, the shock will manifest as outright physical shortages.
