A 4/17 strike against ISIS in the Golis Mountains brings us to the 56th strike of the year in Somalia.
This ties, by our tracking, for the third largest number of strikes in a year and we’re not even half way through the year.
www.newamerica.org/insights/ame...
An interesting text given the challenges and importance for various meanings of when you date the start and end of wars.
A 4/17 strike against ISIS in the Golis Mountains brings us to the 56th strike of the year in Somalia.
This ties, by our tracking, for the third largest number of strikes in a year and we’re not even half way through the year.
www.newamerica.org/insights/ame...
This is why the question of other levers and their status whether the Houthis or retained drone capabilities or a shift to something new is so important.
The thing about closing the strait is if it starts to seem like it’s not going to open, it no longer acts as a deterrent because the cost is sunk.
And if you close it over certain issues, it can weaken the balance of costs/benefits for other actions.
Ok Heres a link. Puts it around this time before the Araghchi tweet not Trump’s post. So definitely reason for suspicion but also seems more complex story and a lot of summaries absent links seem wrong.
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
Am I wrong on the timing - but doesn’t this timing align with Arragchi’s tweet?
Hard to judge this without it even having sourcing.
But isn’t 20 minutes about the difference between Arragchi’s tweet and Trump’s.
Open to correction. But bit skeptical of this especially without a link.
Frim this Intercept interview with Duss.
Note this is preceded by a paragraph on Trump run in as antiwar this time and lying so shouldn’t be read as confirming the truth of anti-war cred. I just think this is wrong on the politics of 16.
theintercept.com/2026/04/17/t...
Feels like this is a weird read of 2016. There was some of that vibe but also Trump ran on being more aggressive on ISIS, secret plans better than the generals, extreme Islamophobia, and doing war crimes (that he had to be talked out of).
And imo the polling suggests that was more important.
Another strike (on 4/15) against Al-Shabaab in the same area as the last announced strike brings the number of strikes this year in Somalia to 55.
www.newamerica.org/insights/ame...
Also looks like if there was a drop in pace due to focus on Iran war, the pace of strikes may be rebounding.
Though efforts to assess the short term ups and downs are challenged by variety of factors that can influence.
Another strike (on 4/15) against Al-Shabaab in the same area as the last announced strike brings the number of strikes this year in Somalia to 55.
www.newamerica.org/insights/ame...
Essentially if authority isn’t taken as a key consistent part of the decision, it risks becoming merely a form of protest when things go badly wrong. But such an approach runs into fears of hamstringing the U.S. if threats aren’t resolved or rise.
One thing about Congress not taking its war powers duty seriously is that it increases the costs over time of acting to assert its authority because it increases risk/sense that it wouldn’t be able to authorize action later if necessary, adding new layers of policy concern to any vote.
Think it also has to do with US having eventually supported France in its colonial war prior to creation of the state which tainted both the state and the U.S. justification in a different way than the division of Korea after WW2 without an intervening returning colonial power in the same way
On average a strike every two days this year.
In actuality, the pace has been up and down and some days see multiple strikes.
But still notable.
Caveats re limits of sourcing on negotiations and general uncertainty especially given this is a proposal that likely wouldn’t work as is.
More reason to be cautious about two conventional wisdoms here.
A) that U.S./Trump admin doesn’t care about freedom of navigation and will easily surrender it.
B) Iran is in a good position to control the strait and ride tolling in perpetuity to global power.
www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Here’s the press release. As with the last one this was against Al-Shabaab.
www.africom.mil/pressrelease...
Strike number 54 in Somalia of 2026 announced via press release (year’s total here is by count of confirmed strikes not by AFRICOM confirmation of the total so could be more unannounced).
www.newamerica.org/insights/ame...
I didn’t realize this experience of mine was a MA millennial thing. Fascinating.
Without commenting on the wisdom (economically or politically) of the approaches, this inflation dovish was something I saw a lot of when tracking Covid-era news for our daily brief.
And while I’m no longer doing such daily tracking, it does feel like that’s not a position held much anymore.
AFRICOM has announced another strike in Somalia on 4/9. This appears to be the 53rd of the year and the fourth this month.
www.newamerica.org/insights/ame...
Presidents come and go but the zombie war in Somalia continues—except with more gusto under Trump.
Here’s the press release. Also first of the month to target Al-Shabaab not ISIS
www.africom.mil/pressrelease...
AFRICOM has announced another strike in Somalia on 4/9. This appears to be the 53rd of the year and the fourth this month.
www.newamerica.org/insights/ame...
Not that it matters because drug smugglers aren’t legitimate targets, there’s no war, and there’s no authorization.
But repatriated folks not being charged is not a good indicator of if they were smuggling. There’s both qs of law’s reach and political context. Reporting is pretty explicit on this.
A face plant. A very revealing one.
Prominent Republican member of Armed Services Committee.
He betrays absence of Congressional oversight.
Brennan also asked Turner about absence of any public hearings. His answer was aaaawful (that they've held hearings in past decades).
