Renewables have passed coal power globally,. Global electricity generation n TWh, 2000-2025.
Clean energy pushes fossil-fuel power into reverse for ‘first time ever’ | @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org @ember-energy.org
Read here: buff.ly/XtaYP1D
Geflüchtete warten im Ärmelkanal auf ein Boot. Dazu der Text: Den Weg zurück ins offene Meer fand er nicht, den Weg in die Herzen der Deutschen schon. Eine Nation litt mit „Timmy“, dem Wal. Zur gleichen Zeit trieben etwa 80 Menschen zwischen Libyen und der italienischen Insel Lampedusa im Mittelmeer.
Doch erst mehr als 24 Stunden später, am Dienstag, kam die italienische Küstenwache den Menschen zur Hilfe. Da waren 19 der Insassen tot, offenbar erfroren, fünf waren in kritischem Zustand.
Einen Tag später, am Mittwoch, starben 20 Migrant:innen bei einem Bootsunglück vor der Küste von Bodrum in der Türkei. Am Sonntag waren mindestens 40 Menschen elf Meilen vor der Küste von Sfax in Tunesien ertrunken.
Schlagzeilen macht das alles nicht mehr. Mindestens 910 Tote Flüchtlinge und Migrant:innen gab es bisher in diesem Jahr im Mittelmeer, dazu mindestens 120 auf dem Weg von Westafrika zu den Kanaren und mindestens vier im Ärmelkanal. Im Januar waren es 459 Tote, so viele wie noch nie in einem Januar, seit 2014 begonnen wurde, offiziell zu zählen.
Das Massensterben von Migranten auf See ging auch diese Woche weiter. Doch für unsere Mitmenschen dort gibt es keinen Liveticker und kein Mitleid.
Beavers can help mitigate the effects of #climatechange by creating carbon sinks! www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Screenshot of text that says: "Important Notice (3/24/2026): NOAA NWS/NCEP has terminated the NCEP/NCAR R1 reanalysis as of March 18th, 2026. NCEP/NCAR R1 has been used as the atmospheric forcing data in the PIOMAS reanalysis . We had not been aware of this change in service which was apparently formally announced Feb 13. 2026. This means that we will have to find alternatives and generate a replacement. It will take considerable effort and time to update data streams, re-calibrate the model and generate updated time series. We don’t yet have a good sense if that’s possible with available funds and if so, when we will be able to resume production of a new PIOMAS time series. While a replacement of the NCAR/NCEP R1 as the forcing product makes ultimate sense, we would have wished for a longer time period to facilitate the transition. We are sorry what this means to our many users. PIOMAS has been in production since March 2010 and we rarely missed updates by more than a couple of weeks (except for government shutdowns). This will be longer. Check back here for updates! "
I had a feeling this was going to happen. Sad news, especially given the poor state of sea ice after this winter.
Looks like we won't be getting any more data for Arctic sea-ice thickness and volume for a while from PIOMAS. See: psc.apl.uw.edu/research/pro...
New from us: how Pakistan's solar boom is dampening the impact of the Hormuz crisis on the country. Solar power allowed LNG&diesel imports to fall after the previous gas crisis in 2021-22, with the solar boom set to avoid $7bn in fossil fuel import costs this year.
Great visualisation tool for daily, monthly and annual mean global temperature
pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
Number of heatwave days per summer identified based on the criterion of at least 3 consecutive days with SAT exceeding the 90th percentile over at least 30% of Western Europe, coloured by the corresponding RMM-VAE regime
New paper out in @ioppublishing.bsky.social :
One specific southerly-flow regime accounts for the vast majority of heatwave days in Western Europe. Also, 70% of the observed ‘excess’ warming (relative to global mean) is attributed to an increase in this ... (1/2)
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
🌲 The #ForestNavigator Data Explorer is now live!
Explore high-resolution EU forest data on climate mitigation, adaptation and forest health. Maps are freely downloadable. More Portal components coming soon! #ClimateAction
👉 fn-portal.iiasa.ac.at
New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.
D & A style attribution with fair and HadCRUT5 updated to 2025 (emissions extrapolated beyond 2022, but should make little difference)
[code: github.com/chrisroadmap...
Very nice, thanks for doing this! Can you quickly explain why the natural forcing is generally positive except a few dips?
This was a joint effort with:
Anna Merrifield, István Dunkl, Homer Durand, Enora Cariou, Julien Cattiaux, Gustau Camps-Valls, @sebastian-sippel.bsky.social
Decomposing a temperature signal into a "thermodynamic" and a "circulation-induced" part is a strong simplification and designing a benchmark dataset (-> nudged simulations) is not straight forward. A summary of our discussion on these challenges is in the paper. We are looking forward to your ideas
The decomposition methods adequately identify the spatial trend pattern. However, they all tend to underestimate the magnitude of the trend pattern. This shows that such evaluation efforts are crucial: By just comparing different methods we cannot identify biases that they all share.
We evaluate the statistical and machine learning decomposition methods against nudged circulation simulations: we apply the decomposition to a freely running simulation and compare it's estimated dynamical component to a simulation without GHG forcing but circulation nudged to the tested simulation
We do not investigate to which extent this circulation induced warming is forced. Given that a changes in atmospheric circulation have been attributed to climate change, we assume that part of this signal is forced. More research is required to quantify the forced part. doi.org/10.1029/2024...
Over the period 1979-2023 circulation changes have contributed considerably to the warming of European summers. Over the mid-latitudes, a wavelike pattern is apparent with alternating regions of circulation induced warming and cooling.
Summer temperatures have strongly been influenced by circulation changes in the northern mid-latitudes.
In our new study we evaluate and compare 4 statistical and ML methods that decompose trends into a "thermodynamical" and a "circulation induced" part.
wcd.copernicus.org/articles/7/8...
Graph that shows black dots for the annual average mean temperature (rising from 1970 to 2025) and the underlying contributions from GHGs in various shades of red.
5 Panels that schematically show the contribution to the global temperature change during the last 10 years. Red and blue colours indicate warming or cooling contributions
[...] We consider it more likely that the recent rate of global warming has been larger than anticipated, exceeding both the previous trend and what would be expected when considering only the observed pattern of greenhouse gas emissions.
berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...
Multi-dataset comparison of global temperatures from 1850-2025, with 2025 values highlighted in a separate panel for each individual dataset. Baseline is a combination of 1850-1900 means.
Most 2025 global temperatures are now out (degrees C above 1850-1900 baseline)
1.41 HadCRUT5
1.44 Berkeley
1.46 JRA-3Q
1.47 Copernicus
1.53 DCENT-I
NOAA and NASA GISS values will be public at 2pm UK time and but based on already public Jan-Nov data they will likely be between 1.3 and 1.4 degC.
🌡️ 2025 was the third-warmest year on record, with a global average temperature 0.59°C above the 1991–2020 average & 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial level. It was 0.13°C below 2024, the warmest year on record, and only 0.01°C cooler than 2023.
@ecmwf.int
⬇️
🙀 Don't forget to submit your abstract for #EGU26
And please consider submitting to our nice session on Synoptic and Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics 😻
www.egu26.eu/session/56938
I'm to announce our session on Synoptic and Large-Scale Circulation Dynamics at #EGU26
www.egu26.eu/session/56938
... and I'm looking forward to read your abstracts together with
@mittermeierm.bsky.social
Jan Stryhal, Christoph Beck, Ileana Bladé
great enough :)
Nice graph! Is the colorscale stopping at 2? 0_o
Interesting update on SSTs and the state of warming:
I developed the model as part of my PhD at @climateanalytics.org together with @carlschleussner.bsky.social @marleneclimate.bsky.social and Tobias Geiger in 2020.
Since then, I'm doing the forecasts every year. Now from the climate causality and attribution group (lim-climate-causality.github.io)
