#polisky share far and wide: @apsa.bsky.social Statement on the Proposed Elimination of the Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences Directorate at the National Science Foundation
apsanet.org/wp-content/u...
Reuters says Tisza has at least 135 seats: 133 is the constitutional supermajority!
Live by highly disproportional electoral systems (which Orbán made even more disproportional with the extra compensation votes awarded to winners), die by highly disproportional electoral systems.
That's surprisingly swift. Expected the whole 'election fraud' allegations. Pleasantly surprised.
Unique daily likers as a graph over the last year. It's down from about 1.6 million a day a year ago to 1.1 million a day now.
I tend to get dogpiled every time I say this but: as someone *who likes bluesky and benefits from being here* we have a problem.
The network is shrinking, not growing. It's shrinking a lot: only about 1.1m people a day even like a post. This time last year it was 1.6m.
Completely forgot that it is April 1st today. So that was what it was about? 😅
"There's gotta be a reason for this" is something I hear a lot right now.
I don’t know if I am just lucky. But the security screening at Columbus airport took less than 5 minutes. I have three hours on my hand now. #isa2026
Dulles Airport security took 5 mins.
'Path plot' based on augmented synthetic control analysis
If democratic backsliding is well-contained, would that relieve the financial market stress? I say yes. Using augmented synthetic control, I show that S. Korean stock market rallied more (24%) than its counterfactual once Yoon's fate was semi-sealed. Presenting this at ISA. *8:15* Mon.
Came home immediately upon this alert. It’s spring break and there are fewer ppl on campus, but that doesn’t mean that this isn’t serious. #GMU
(talking to myself too) Going over time while giving a talk/presentation is rude. Few of us have so many important things to talk about. 15 minutes mean 15 minutes.
Iran fired 1200+ projectiles at 5 countries in the first 48 hours. Most were drones. These saturation attacks aim to overwhelm air defenses and drain interceptors. $20-50K Shaheds vs. $4.19M air defense interceptors put US partners on the wrong side of the cost curve.
People say that this is a precursor of a political chaos. As Yoon will appeal for sure, narrowing the scope could help lighten the sentence in the upper courts. It's df annoying, but I am not as appalled by this as others. A recovery from backsliding ('democratic restoration) is a messy process. 2/2
Yoon is sentenced to life imprisonment. While the sentence itself is not much surprising, Judge Ji (whose political neutrality has been in question all along) pointed only to the deployment of troops to the National Assembly, not really highlighting all other aspects of the failed insurrection. 1/2
kimchi pancake
marinated steamed pork, sooyuk
marinated, stir fried pork, jeyuk
pork barbecue and egg soup
Some of the 🥘 I made in the past week.
All I am thinking is that I need to up my paper title game though.
Assigning this gem by @mcopelov.bsky.social & @tompepinsky.com to my grad class. Sold on the title alone.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
WASHINGTON (AP) — Washington Post says one-third of its staff across all departments, not just the newsroom, is being laid off.
Cooked almost all lunches and dinners in the past 6 days. Exhausted the repertoire now.
Someone needs to decompose the rise--how much of this is 1) silver's dual purpose (industrial + precious metal) and 2) speculation/safe heaven.
To be clear, I am just as frustrated as anybody.
The latest democratic resilience of S.Korea (to insurrection) is sort of an outlier, which is why I am working on it.
Not saying they are irrelevant, of course. In fact the *conclusion* of the process is usually thru their negotiation with the outgoing elites.
In many (not sure if most) cases of democratization, the major opposition party joins the resistance very late in the process. Just an empirical statement.
In sentencing former Prime Minister Han to 23 years, a South Korean court clearly defined Yoon’s actions as an *insurrection*. There is now no need to refer to it euphemistically as ‘the martial law case,’ if you ever wondered.
What to know as a national security trial for former organizers of Hong Kong's Tiananmen Square vigil opens Thursday.
We are so not okay.
The first of these has been rolled out. For obstructing arrest, Yoon is sentenced to five years, which is half of what the SP asked for. Word on the ground is that it is too lenient given that he has shown no repentance at all. First of many, anyway.
I probably need to keep track of this. #SKorea
This capture image shows up everywhere and I don't think this was entirely coincidental. The text says "Yoon 'Smiled' When SP Demands Death Sentence and the Court Thrown into Turmoil" all the while Lee-Dakaichi summit was happening.
