I’m sure exposing upper middle class air travelers nationwide to masked ICE psychos they had previously only encountered in the news will do wonders for Trump’s popularity

Trump’s death will unleash the greatest karma bitch response in modern human history.

Seen Bruce > 100x in last 45yrs, but this was 1 of the best: in my hometown of Milan, w/my brother from another mother, a virtual loop of Bruce feeding on the crowd feeding on Bruce, & Bruce dunking on our POS wanna-be tyrant, corrupt, waste of oxygen, sorry excuse for a president

The More Things Change...: Equity And Credit Markets Are Back To Their Old Ways Credit is again a tailwind for stocks, while speculation once again runs rampant.

Catching up on corporate credit and equities.

open.substack.com/pub/filzucch...

Echoes of the roaring ‘20s. Grotesque shit…

2/ And if u think that there's some grand plan behind it, a) it's still revolting on a moral level (of course he has no morals) and b) this is the same guy whose gray matter can be seen slithering out of his ears during his routine, utterly incoherent, diatribes. #MAGA #MAGAMorons

1/ The notion that orange ape is shaking hands and making deals w/ a high-ranking Al-Qaeda terrorist, while spitting in the face of every western country - countries who sacrificed their soldiers to back us in the fight against those very terrorists - is a new low even for trump. #MAGA #MAGAMorons

160s

3/ I know, it's way too cute, but a man can dream.

2/ BBack announcements r way > of last yr's record pace of $1.2T. Idxs very o/bot, but daily DeMark counts still bullish. A quick p/back to QQQ $495-485 wud b nice.Yday I flipped most of my long stks to call/call spreads; a quick drop wud let me sell OTM puts on those names to pay for the calls...

1/ All quiet on the cred front after the massive rally of the last couple of days. Spreads r back to pre 4/2 levels & supportive of stks. After April putrid totals, May issuance has been very strong at > $100B MTD. Idxs r very o/bought on daily...

the embarrassment plunges new depths every. fucking. day.

Naah…Sean Duffy has everything under control. Man made it to Sec of Transportation bc he was on MTV’s “Road Rules: All-Stars”; who can beat that level of expertise

One of our biz vans had a fender bender w/ a Model 3 insured thru TSLA. Took them 13 months to pay up.

Cross-currents in cred & stks continue. 3-mth VIX curve still < 0; IG/HY spreads still wider than when stks were at these prices b4 4/2.But issuance (most important) is catching up,w/ $30b so far this wk, & much > tdy as cos frontrun the Fed. Spec cred bears in IG CDX seem stuck in neutral for now.

Impeach and convict this m'fer NOW.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Q4

probably gonna be another fun quarter

5310 to end June would probably make everyone mad

4/ Credit is in waaay better shape now than it was then, so I don't think a credit/financial crisis is in play right now, but the #SPY at 500 / #QQQ at 420 again, would make perfect sense to me.

3/ I am also up to my ears in spec, long dated, way out of the money (.1 delta kinda stuff) puts on the #IWM and have a lot of buying power on the shelf. The closest analogy I can think of for this market, is the rally back to the highs after the '08 Bear Stearns wipe-out...

2/ I'm still (very..ish) long a variety of biotechs ( #XBI being the largest and the rest mimicking much of
"sharkbiotech" portfolio), some #XLV, a bunch of energy infra names (mainly #GEV ) and a few random odd names. Most of that is hedged with puts....

1/ I may be totally off base, but my credit and volatility tells have served me (very) well for a (very) long time. The move off the lows to me looks like a helluva "bull trap". And if I am wrong, I can't think of any reasons why I should get longer at these prices...

2/ So yes, HY bonds/spreads can be the canary of credit problems, but we need to see those problems infecting IG b4 worrying about a cred crisis.

1/ YTD IG bond issuance = $730b; YTD HY bond issuance = $76b.This is the No.1 reason I'm often a bit dismissive of focusing on HY bonds/spreads:the size of the mkt is relatively insignificant.The 2d reason is that HY holders expect/shud expect losses so they r not likely to freak out if that happens

As stks romp, IG spread is flat w/ breadth 2:1 to the bad; HY is leading, tighter by 9bps, w/ breadth 7:1 to the good; volume in both IG/HY is very light; IG CDX flat; 3-mth $VIX curve is still inverted by about 1pt. As confusing as it gets imho

2/ Perhaps biggest oddity: for 1st time I can remember, newly annc'd bbacks beat (swamped) cred issuance $195b v. $119b.Good? Maybe...as long as cred spreads/cred mkts keep allowing/give 'nuf confidence to cos to execute the bbacks.Based on some data I saw, the actual bbacks in Apr were very skimpy.

1/ A strange month going out with a very strange day: IG/HY at the worst levels of the day, +4.5/+15; IG CDX +1bp; almost no issuance; but stks at the best level of day; 3-mth $VIX curve still under water by 1pt. Total bond issuance for the month is the lowest for a month of April since 2013...

my favorite bit from the weekend was Bessent trying to pretend the utter chaos and dysfunction that is Trump's trade and tariff policy is driven by game theory!

"strategic uncertainty"

hahahaha

you're gonna see that a ton from me!

Ever wonder why Iraqi men all had the same mustache as Saddam Hussein, or the rajneeshees all wore red clothing…?

Good!