Incidentally, I really think the dems + media should take to using the word "commissar" for Musk and his team. I'll be honest that most of what I know about the Russian Revolution comes from the @mikeduncan.bsky.social podcast, but the comparison feels apt?
Probably both and I don't know which one would dominate. But it seems like a grim sign (among many grim signs).
Which makes me think that
1. they have done a pretty good job of weeding out dissent, and/or:
2. they have put the fear of god in anyone who would even think of talking that Musk and his commissars have them surveilled
This time around -- and maybe I'm missing them, or it's too early -- there seems to be very little of that.
In the first Trump administration I was constantly seeing stories from NYT, WSJ, etc., that would describe inner workings and dysfunctions of white house and inevitably include a line like "this account is based on interviews with more than 25 administration officials"
If you order it you can decide for yourself 😅
My sibling Cat is an incredible writer and I am SO EXCITED to be able to buy their new book.
Also me trying to fix my bicycle yesterday 🥲
Looking to get up-to-speed on cross imputation: getting a relationship between X and Y in dataset 1, and then imputing Y in dataset 2 where I have X but no Y.
I'm told this might be more of a sociology thing -- would love any papers/handbook chapters for the state of the art. #econsky #sociology
is this a joke
Damn and now Drake is going to have to pay a 25 percent tariff on that beef?
back in maybe 2022 there was this brilliant video of Ben Simmons passing up wide open layups in 2K with Steve Nash (remember when he was coach?) looking around in disbelief
I assume it's lost to internet history but would love to find this... #sixers #nba
We are always on the lookout for interesting methods and applications of ML in economics for the reading group!
Qingyuan prepared his own modified version where he presents a simple and detailed walk through of the first part of their code, going step-by-step through some of the more complicated pieces. Check it out here! github.com/QingyuanFang...
Last year, the JHU economics ML reading group worked through "Estimating Nonlinear Heterogeneous Agent Models with Neural Networks" from Kase at el. Today @qingyuanfang.bsky.social walked us through the authors' code: github.com/tseep/estima...
Of course, "interesting" != publishable (this is another important conversation). But if a study is only compelling if a non-zero affect is found, the incentive to cheat will be large.
In general, finding a null from a program evaluation might not be what the experimenter is hoping -- but this is valuable information for policymakers since funds can be invested in more effective programs.
I think this is significantly better in econ (not perfect).
An undergrad I am working with wants to estimate effect of congestion on public transportation use (he has an instrument). He has asked what happens if he finds no effect; I told him that seems very interesting + important!
A null result here just suggests that, surprise surprise, this bizarre "ritual" had no effect on heart rate during karaoke. Who would find this compelling?
I'm continually dumbfounded when I read about the studies that Gino and coauthors were faking -- this one is about the power of "ritual", as demonstrated by having participants (presumably college students) sprinkle salt on a piece of paper and crumple it before singing a Journey song.
I think a useful heuristic for social science is: is this question interesting if I find a (precise) null effect?
And I will submit that the problem with a lot of these fraudulent marketing studies is the answer was clearly "no."
www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...
Thank GOD "Captain it's Wednesday" is on BSKY
He's a spark plug -- Philly is missing that energy this year
I am watching the sixers game and about 30 minutes ago my wife asks me "so what ever happened to Cam Payne?"
Appreciate him 😂
Which by the way up until recently I didn't even KNOW they wrote poetry -- I've just read (and loved) their novels! And now they've got a little collection being published. Phenomenal.
My baby sibling is an absolutely incredible writer and I am *so* excited for more of their writing to be entering the world.
You're totally right -- but only after it spiked in the first 2 years. So I'm wondering if people are more sensitive to the rise than they are to the fall?
I think Trump will probably be very bad for inflation so we might get another test case in the next few years...
Shows inflation during 70s and 80s
There’s a lot of good responses here, but I feel like the trajectory matters a lot here. Inflation was basically declining since Reagan took office, so maybe voters associate him with breaking it.
"Some studies implicitly adopt the view that, perhaps because of some benevolent identification deity, the data at hand necessarily include some set of conditioning variables that suffice for the CIA."
incredible line from Barnow and Smith (2015) 🔥🔥
I think the only fundamental use is facilitating illegal transactions. Maybe this gives it some non-$0 value, but not nearly what it is now.
In contrast to gold which like you has industrial and aesthetic applications