4/21 flow

1. Buy Signal:
- Price low > 21 EMA for 10 consecutive days
- 21 EMA >= 55 EMA for 5 consecutive days
- 55 EMA is in an uptrend
- Current day candle is green (close > open)
2. Soft Warning Signal:
- Occurs after a buy signal if price < 21 EMA
3. Sell Signal:
- 21 EMA < 55 EMA

Made a power trend indicator based on the IDB conditions.
SPY, QQQ, IWM & BTC will trigger buy today if they close with a green candle (not necessarily positive).

You can find it as "Power Trend" in trading view with my name.

4/20 flow

4/17 flow. A ton of profit taking, but a few new positions as well. Bullish bias remains for the mid to long term.

NYSE A-D line new highs. No major top without a divergence (price higher high, A-D line lower high).

CTAs bought more than $86Bn in global equities over the past five sessions — one of the biggest buying sprees on record.
Brian Garrett wrote that the GS futures strategies desk has a model which expects an *additional* $70Bn of buying in the next five sessions

A lot of calls were bought this week.

Nasdaq FW P/E.

Volatility-control funds have slashed their S&P 500 exposure from 85% to just 53%. If the market stabilizes they will their forced to re enter.

Goldman: Despite the sharp market rebound so far in April, net trading flows and positioning have not fully caught up, in our view.

US equities on the Prime book are modestly “net sold” MTD, driven by selling in single stocks outweighing buying in macro products (led by short covers in ETFs).

Tech EPS vs Price. EPS going up, price down. Price will catch up.

US consumer confidence at series lows. Counter intuitive, but historic lows kind of means the only way to go is up.

Not a thing you see at highs.

$QQQ on the loose.

Market is barely long.

"We've witnessed the largest 5d stretch of buying of US equities on record. Our latest positioning estimate is long $16bn (this has gotten as high as $74bn). Still wood to chop but imagine the pace is less violent."

-GS Morgan

Price momentum is constructive. Comments: 1) There were many additional successes pre-1990, with notable failures in May 1957 and May 1969. 2) The best signals were preceded by greater drawdowns than the current case.

Been going through stuff for the weekend video. Incredibly, things are bonkers level bullish. Yes, likely pull back next week, but completely irrelevant. I'll do some retweets from people who are on BS and do a thread with charts "stolen" from twitter.

Iran fading us

I'd say ships are passing. Haven't seen this much red in the middle of the strait since the war began.

Yes. 7300 next. It's difficult to see any type of bearishness before that. Maybe a single red day. Kind of see any drop getting bought intra day and not closing red or only marginally so.

And to add to this. You are in March and bought the 20C for June. When volatility happens in March and you get a 20% spike let's say, the June contract does not go up 20%, maybe half. Just like now with oil. When we were at 120 now, Sep contracts were at 80-90.

It's because options are tied to futures. For example:
VIX is at 18 and it's March. You buy 20C for June and you think it's OTM. Wrong, you're buying 20C on the June futures, which are at 22, so it's an ITM option which is expensive as fuck.

Only way this goes amazing is if VIX goes way above 22.

It's surprisingly difficult to make money with VIX from my experience. Only works when it goes crazy and those moments are rare. That's why the only reliable strategy is shorting it basically.

Even when it goes your way gains are pretty muted compared to index puts for example.

Yes. We should be getting VIX up on market going higher from here without a pullback, and I think we will. Probably going to 7300 on another good headline on Monday. Shouldn't be up big on VIX though, like 5%. If it gets to 10% it's a sign of imminent drop.

Ok, energy is a buyable dip. $XOM at 138-140 as the example.
We're playing out similar to 2022:
• Move started at year start and did first leg
• War happens and we get second leg
• Big drop after the second leg
• High oil prices windfall rally.

This time energy stocks over USO.