Volume 9, Issue 2 - Texas National Security Review Strategic Stability (Spring 2026) You can read the entire issue here. Foundation The (Elusive) Search for Strategic Stability Sheena Chestnut Greitens Roundtable Introduction: Emerging Technologies an...

Read the full issue and download pdf's of each of these articles for free at tnsr.org/volume-9-iss...

On Optimism About New Military Technologies - Texas National Security Review This article identifies psychological, cultural, and organizational factors that drive optimism about emerging military technologies. Psychological influences include bounded rationality, cognitive bi...

Herbert Lin probes the psychological and institutional roots of "techno-optimism" in defense circles that often lead to inaccurate predictions of tech performance. tnsr.org/roundtable/o...

Technological Surprise and Normalization Through Use: The Tactical and Discursive Effects of New Precision-Strike Weapons in the Russo-Ukrainian War - Texas National Security Review Expectations of the performance of military technologies are marked by hopes that one’s own systems perform well while those of adversaries perform poorly, and fears of the inverse. These expectations...

@cltracy.bsky.social analyzes the Russo-Ukrainian War to show how "revolutionary" weapons eventually undergo a process of normalization into routine modes of warfighting. tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Strategic Stability - Texas National Security Review How will advances in artificial intelligence impact strategic stability? A growing number of studies and reports assessing the ways that advances in AI could influence global politics focus on the pot...

@mchorowitz.bsky.social presents a non-linear framework for AI, arguing its impact on stability is shaped by a "hype cycle" and the resilience of second-strike survivability. tnsr.org/roundtable/a...

Cyber Operations and Nuclear Stability: Networked Instability? - Texas National Security Review The digital transformation of nuclear forces made modern nuclear forces more effective but potentially introduced strategic cyber vulnerabilities. Despite warnings about the cyber threats to nuclear s...

@jackieschneider.bsky.social finds that the impact of cyber operations on nuclear stability depends heavily on the specific network architectures of the American nuclear enterprise. tnsr.org/roundtable/c...

The Influence of Psychological Factors in the Search for Strategic Stability - Texas National Security Review Many of the leaders of new nuclear powers sit atop regimes that are personalistic in nature, and thus less constrained by institutions or public opinion than more democratic regimes. Such authoritaria...

Rose McDermott explores how the rise of personalist leaders and deep-seated cognitive biases challenge the fundamental "rational actor" model of nuclear deterrence. tnsr.org/roundtable/t...

Strategic Stability and Its Limits: Reflections on Schelling - Texas National Security Review Emerging technologies possess the potential to transform military competition and the international system in an uncertain, potentially destabilizing fashion. Are there ways to capture the benefits of...

Francis J. Gavin interrogates the legacy of Thomas Schelling, revealing the internal tensions and "foundational myths" that define—and sometimes limit—American nuclear statecraft. tnsr.org/roundtable/s...

Introduction: Emerging Technologies and the Future of Strategic Stability - Texas National Security Review Emerging technologies developed since the end of the Cold War—and their proliferation to new actors—call into question the prospects for strategic stability in the twenty-first century. Strategic stab...

@htrinkunas.bsky.social and Herbert Lin examine how emerging capabilities—both nuclear and non-nuclear—upend the requirements for mutual deterrence and create new incentives for preemption. tnsr.org/roundtable/e...

The (Elusive) Search for Strategic Stability - Texas National Security Review The combination of technological and geopolitical change puts pressure on the search for strategic stability in the contemporary international environment.

@sheenagreitens.bsky.social argues that the search for stability is becoming increasingly elusive as horizontal proliferation and complex multipolarity dismantle the old bipolar assumptions of the Cold War era. tnsr.org/2026/02/the-...

TNSR | Texas National Security Review | "Strategic Stability"

The entirety of our Strategic Stability Special Issue is now live! In it, we bring together leading experts to examine how rapid technological change and global shifts are challenging the search for international peace. 🧵 #StrategicStability #NationalSecurity #Defense

Can emerging technologies reduce pressure in nuclear crises? @htrinkunas.bsky.social of @stanfordcisac.bsky.social examines whether improved information and analysis can give leaders more time to think deliberately before acting.

Listen to the full episode at: tnsr.org/2026/03/stra...

On Optimism About New Military Technologies - Texas National Security Review This article identifies psychological, cultural, and organizational factors that drive optimism about emerging military technologies. Psychological influences include bounded rationality, cognitive bi...

Herbert Lin identifies psychological, cultural, and organizational factors that drive optimism about emerging military technologies.

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On Optimism About New Military Technologies - Texas National Security Review This article identifies psychological, cultural, and organizational factors that drive optimism about emerging military technologies. Psychological influences include bounded rationality, cognitive…

Read: tnsr.org/roundtable/o...

@stanfordcisac.bsky.social | @hooverinstitution.bsky.social

#StrategicStability #DefensePolicy #MilitaryTech

Herbert S. Lin | "There is no question that US military forces are far superior in capability today compared to the numerically larger forces that the US had at the end of World War II. Nevertheless, the US military establishment has also exhibited what often seems to be an unreasonable degree of optimism about how useful new technologies will be for military purposes even in the short run." | Strategic Stability Roundtable, "On Optimism About New Military Technologies"

Despite immense capability, the US military often exhibits "unreasonable optimism" toward new tech. Herbert S. Lin examines the psychological and cultural drivers behind overestimating short-term innovation in the last contribution to our Strategic Stability Roundtable.

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#StrategicStability #DefensePolicy #NationalSecurity

Roundtable | "On Optimism About New Military Technologies" by Herbert Lin

Our Roundtable concludes with Herbert S. Lin of @stanfordcisac.bsky.social and @hooverinstitution.bsky.social exploring the over-optimism surrounding emerging military tech. He covers the psychological, cultural, and organizational drivers that often lead to overestimated short-term impacts.

Technological Surprise and Normalization Through Use: The Tactical and Discursive Effects of New Precision-Strike Weapons in the Russo-Ukrainian War - Texas National Security Review Expectations of the performance of military technologies are marked by hopes that one’s own systems perform well while those of adversaries perform poorly, and fears of the inverse. These…

Read the full discussion: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

#DefensePolicy #PrecisionStrike #StrategicStudies

@berkeleyrisk.bsky.social

Strategic Stability Roundtable | "Technological Surprise and Normalization Through Use . . ." | We should typically expect the incorporation of new military technologies into existing systems of warfare, rather than technological disruption of those systems. Those studying technologies of war would do well to theorize practices of warfare as durable constructions that resist disruption | Cameron L. Tracy

How are new precision-strike weapons changing the battlefield in Ukraine? Cameron L. Tracy (@cltracy.bsky.social) explores why we should expect technological incorporation rather than total disruption. He challenges the narrative of a revolution in military affairs.

Understanding Schelling's Nuclear Paradigms with Francis J. Gavin - Texas National Security Review Francis J. Gavin explains why Thomas Schelling remains foundational to nuclear strategy despite being an economist, and argues that “strategic stability” is often invoked without clear definition. He ...

🎧 Listen to the new episode of Horns of a Dilemma: tnsr.org/2026/04/unde...

#Strategy #TechPolicy #Defense

From unmanned vehicles to AI, emerging tech is reshaping the battlefield in Ukraine. Francis J. Gavin discusses whether these systems create new crises—and if we can learn from how the US and Soviets managed the nuclear age.

Understanding Schelling's Nuclear Paradigms with Francis J. Gavin - Texas National Security Review Francis J. Gavin explains why Thomas Schelling remains foundational to nuclear strategy despite being an economist, and argues that “strategic stability” is often invoked without clear definition. He ...

🎧 Listen to the new episode of Horns of a Dilemma: tnsr.org/2026/04/unde...

#InternationalRelations #DefensePolicy #TNSR

Understanding Schelling's Nuclear Paradigms with Francis J. Gavin | Horns of a Dilemma

We are joined by Francis J. Gavin to discuss the enduring—and often contradictory—legacy of Thomas Schelling. Gavin argues that to navigate today's emerging technologies, we must move past technological determinism and put politics first.

Ensuring US Military Readiness in the Indo-Pacific - Texas National Security Review Eyck Freymann and Harry Halem argue that the United States can sustain conventional deterrence against China into the 2030s through targeted investments in logistics and the industrial base. They…

Listen to the full conversation: tnsr.org/2026/02/ensu...

#NationalSecurity #DroneWarfare #IndoPacific

What does Ukraine teach us about future conflict in the Indo-Pacific? Eyck Freymann explains why unmanned systems, counter-drone capabilities, and coordinated allied production will shape competition with China—and why scale across the drone supply chain is critical.

@cltracy.bsky.social

Congrats to Francis J. Gavin, chair of the TNSR editorial board, on winning the Gelber Prize for the world’s best non-fiction book in English on foreign affairs!

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#NationalSecurity #Defense #StrategicStability

Roundtable | "Technological Surprise and Normalization Through Use: The Tactical and Discursive Effects of New Precision-Strike Weapons in the Russo-Ukrainian War" by Cameron L. Tracy

Expectations for new weapons often misalign with their performance. In our Strategic Stability Roundtable, Cameron L. Tracy of @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social analyzes how the debut of Russian hypersonic missiles and glide bombs leads to "normalization" through use.

Cyber Operations and Nuclear Stability: Networked Instability? - Texas National Security Review The digital transformation of nuclear forces made modern nuclear forces more effective but potentially introduced strategic cyber vulnerabilities. Despite warnings about the cyber threats to nuclear…

@hooverinstitution.bsky.social

Read more: tnsr.org/roundtable/c...

#CyberSecurity #NuclearStability #StrategicStability

"Despite warnings about the cyber threats to nuclear stability, our understandings of when and why cyber operations create nuclear instability are rife with contradictory suppositions. Does entanglement create interdependence that stabilizes crisis dyads, or destabilizing pathways to inadvertent nuclear war?" | Strategic Stability Roundtable, "Cyber Operations and Nuclear Stability: Networked Instability?" by Jacquelyn Schneider

Does cyber entanglement stabilize or destabilize nuclear dyads? In our latest Strategic Stability Roundtable, Jacquelyn Schneider (@jackieschneider.bsky.social) argues that current theories on digital risk are rife with contradictions and offers a new framework based on network architecture.