The problem is that such a tempo is reserved for ground invasions, shock and awe, with follow up to take advantage of confusion. Instead of that though, they did a ceasefire and made very clear they don't want to commit any ground troops. So what are they going to do???

I'm also guessing Steak n Shake is dying and desperately hoping this somehow changes things.

It could be the case, quite ironically, that Trump's erratic scrambling is being done to avoid the perception that he's unable to make a decision and wants to back down, are exactly what is preventing the situation from resolving: Iran opening the Strait.

I thought they were kicking the can down the road in order to move assets into the region, now I'm leaning more towards the idea that they're doing so because Trump cannot make any sort of actual decision and is hoping somehow things get better even though oil shock is getting worse.

Iran is undeniably a quagmire at this point as it's clear the admin has no idea how to extricate themselves.

Thinking about that thread someone did that compared Trumpism foreign policy to Metternich and speculate that their ideal outcome in Iran would be the IRGC taking over and Iran becoming a nonideological fascist state.

This was something the mayor of Miami actually pushed

Shit, I just remembered they did in fact try to turn Miami into a cryptocurrency hub

If only they invested in NFT instead this wouldn't have happened.

TFW you try to save your job by framing people.

Problem is that smart and genuinely evil covers fewer people than you think, but more to the point smart genuinely evil people are more likely to focus on a ton of other unethical shit that'd make them more money for less work. See how Katie Miller is now just doing propaganda influencer shit.

They need people that are smart and genuinely evil, not true believers, who by necessity would have to be stupid and at risk of backing down in the face of a shit ton of counter evidence.

Sure invading islands in the Strait would probably not work, but at least it's a theory of victory, as would be using the MEH as a threat to compel ceasefire. I'm not sure what they're trying to do now though. Hope, somehow, things change, as the clock ticks down to massive oil shock?

I'm getting more and more confused about what Trump and the rest think they are doing.

Look the first thing you need to know about a palace coup is that they tend to work a whole lot better when you don't go shouting to the masses that you helped organize a palace coup. There are a lot less ruffled feathers if she keeps supporting Maduro publicly.

Putting sophisticated in quote marks is meant to suggest it was not actually that sophisticated despite the claims by the group.

Why? This is like the stupidest place to target.

Ahh, but what is his support among self described Trump supporters?

So, it'd actually be insanely bad for Trump personally if they can't dig out any of the "Nuclear dust" since that means any attempt to seize it in a spec ops raid just becomes that much more untenable.

Trying to make a deal with whichever hardline authoritarian was least committed to any sort of ideology outside of more power and money.

Snark aside that Trump keeps repeating a talking point clearly not of his own making, the one listing off timelines for several wars, really shows that he's on some level aware his own brand of BS isn't working.

Yes, if only they ever thought about bombing in Vietnam.

What's frustrating he clearly has no idea what "they" did in Venezuela, spending years ramping up pressure before making a deal for a palace coup with the currently entrenched power, vs what they're doing in Iran, bombing everything and hoping for a mass uprising, then pivoting to ???

Voters really don't like partisan gerrymandering, even R voters. They voted to ban it in FL and OH.

The difference is that Ds have been giving voters a choice. But voters don't like doing it themselves. They're more comfortable letting their legislatures and courts do it for them illegally.

That said I'm sure everyone is just going to assume this was an act of hyper competent assassins.

Logically speaking a random accident is exactly the thing you'd expect to disrupt a covert operation.

He mentions the big thing being the vote of weapons embargo... okay yeah, but like, if that is the red line here shouldn't he reckon with the ongoing war, or that Trump himself was pushing for a ceasefire in Lebanon?

Having read this myself, it is fascinating what doesn't get mentioned at all. Nothing about war, Lebanon, Iran, Gaza, or Palestine. Which honestly make the whole thing more confusing and less interesting, on the question of why now, or even why it matters enough to be printed in the newspaper.

Needless to say, it doesn't mention Gaza or Palestine either.

This OpEd makes no mention of Iran, Lebanon, or even war.