The Russia-Iran Partnership Why Moscow is helping Iran fight the United States and Israel.

Moscow is helping Iran to target U.S. forces in the Middle East & reconstituting its drone stockpiles. In @lawfaremedia.org wfare, my @cnas.bsky.social colleague Delaney Soliday documents Russian support & why sanctions alone will not stop it.

www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-...

You can find our full @cnas.bsky.social report Countering the Swarm here:
www.cnas.org/publications...

How Iran’s Cheap, Low-Tech Drones Have Cost the U.S.

The cost disparity between Iran's cheap drones & the U.S. interceptors is breaking the bank. We need more cheap defenses--rockets, guns, interceptor drones — & at scale.

Happy to have my report w/@mollykcam.bsky.social informing @nytimes.com' sharp breakdown

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Here's what Marine Expeditionary Units are designed to do The units are embarked on ships and include air and ground combat elements along with logistics and command structures.

Good explainer article on what the MEUs are and what they can (and probably cannot) do today from @taskandpurpose.com

Featuring quotes by @spettyjohn.bsky.social and me👇

taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics...

Political Challenges to the U.S. Overseas Military Presence The U.S. military depends on access to overseas bases to project power around the world. Political challenges to access have been common, but the threat has often been overstated.

What is new—and what makes this moment more dangerous—is treating long-standing allies as transactional partners. Expect this to get worse, not better. I did extensive research on this issue at RAND in happier times.
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

Washington questions NATO alliance, as Spain fences off airspace - Breaking Defense "When we ask for additional assistance or simple access… we get questions or roadblocks or hesitation," US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said today when asked about US support to NATO's collective de...

Spain, Italy, France restricting base access and overflight is a reminder: these permissions are always political, always contingent on the specific situation.

That's especially true when you treat partners transactionally, which is the Trump admin's approach.

breakingdefense.com/2026/03/wash...?

Hellscape Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone Age It is 2029. General Secretary Xi Jinping has given the order for the People’s Liberation Army to forcibly take Taiwan. Hundreds of Chinese warships begin

Hellscape #Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone Age, by @spettyjohn.bsky.social & @mollykcam.bsky.social
warontherocks.com/2026/03/hell... via @warontherocks.bsky.social #China

Hellscape for Taiwan Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

You can read the @warontherocks.bsky.social article @mollykcam.bsky.social & I wrote above or the full @cnas.bsky.social report here:

www.cnas.org/publications...

Hellscape Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone Age It is 2029. General Secretary Xi Jinping has given the order for the People’s Liberation Army to forcibly take Taiwan. Hundreds of Chinese warships begin

If the PLA invades, Taiwan could stop them at the shore w/UUVs, drone boats, swarms, missiles, & mines layered into a 4 ring gauntlet from the strait to the beach.

Taiwan can create this Hellscape. We explain how.

warontherocks.com/2026/03/hellscape-taiwan-a-porcupine-defense-in-the-drone-age/

There is plenty of scope for the Iran war to intensify America and Israel conduct air strikes against Iran while the regime blocks the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global energy supplies and pushing Gulf allies toward alignment.

Important @economist.com insight on the dismal options for ending the Iran war: America can’t reopen Hormuz, Iran can’t stop the airstrikes, & every escalation option is bad, explaining why there’s no clear path to a durable political solution.

economist.com/briefing/202...

How low-cost drones are used in modern military strikes Stacie Pettyjohn at the Center for a New American Security says Iran's Shahed-136 drones are mainly composed of off-the-shelf consumer tech, which makes them affordable to make at scale.

Cheap drones are exhausting expensive air defenses — that cost asymmetry is the whole problem.

I spoke with @marketplace.org about Iran's Shahed threat, why it demands affordable defenses, & the combat debut of America's own answer: the LUCAS drone.

www.marketplace.org/episode/2026...

The Hormuz Minefield In the strait, Iran holds the advantage—and America has no good options.

My latest on the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz in @foreignaffairs.com
www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-...

Three years of @cnas.bsky.social research on US munitions procurement & the defense industrial base.

📄 Precision and Posture (2022) www.cnas.org/publications...
📄 Production Is Deterrence (2023) www.cnas.org/publications...
📄 From Production Lines to Front Lines (2025) www.cnas.org/publications...

Air defenses tell a similar story. DoD has consistently bought interceptors, but our data shows purchases have focused on expensive ballistic missile defense systems in relatively small quantities, neglecting air, cruise missile, and drone defenses.

Meanwhile antiship stockpiles were near zero for years before FY17. Now we're suddenly deploying missiles against Iranian ships and minelayers, drawing down stockpiles that were never large to begin with.

The numbers: Navy bought ZERO new TLAMs in FY19, FY24, and FY25. Only 322 Tomahawks procured across all services in the past 5 years. Procurement has been wildly volatile — swinging from hundreds one year to nothing the next — preventing industry from maintaining production lines.

US has burned through ‘years’ of munitions since start of Iran war Rapid depletion of stockpile including Tomahawk missiles raises pressure on Trump over cost of conflict

From the @financialtimes.com: The US burned through "years" of Tomahawk missiles in days of the Iran war. @cnas.bsky.social has analyzed the munitions problem repeatedly but DoD has failed to fix it. Now we're in a hole that can't be quickly filled. 🧵 www.ft.com/content/1471...

Ukraine Reaches a Milestone: Making ‘China-Free’ Drones

This is a very good approach.
(And I say approach, rather than outcome, because the headline goes a bit far. But still: well done Ukraine!!)

#drone
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/w...

Can America clear the Strait of Hormuz of Iran’s drones and mines? Escorting convoys of oil tanker with warships may give Iran juicy American targets

Pleased to speak with @economist.com for this excellent discussion of Iran's threat to the Strait of Hormuz
www.economist.com/middle-east-...

Octopus Adds an Additional Layer to Ukraine’s Air Defences The value of the UK-Ukrainian drone interceptor is not in the characteristics of the munition, but in the process that brought it into being.

For more on how the cat-and-mouse game between Russian drones and Ukrainian defenses has evolved, check out this piece by Jack Watling www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

Countering the Swarm The counter-drone mission entails much more than simply air defense and cannot be relegated to traditional, isolated air defense formations.

But no single technology is enough to defeat even cheap drones like the Shahed. As Molly Campbell and I argue in our @cnas.bsky.social report, you need a layered defense system that adversaries can't easily route around.
Full report
www.cnas.org/publications...

U.S. Army Sends Ukraine-Tested Drones to Hit Iran’s Drones Merops drones, from a company owned by Eric Schmidt, are favored by Kyiv’s troops against Russian Shahed attacks.

The US Army is rushing Ukrainian cheap drone interceptors to the Middle East, which is a hugely welcome development. These are cost-effective, battlefield-tested solutions for defeating Shaheds & should proliferate quickly.
www.wsj.com/world/u-s-ar...

The New American Defense Industrial Base The U.S. defense industrial base has seen significant change over the past decade. CNAS will publish a series of essays written by a diverse set of experts

Check out this link for other essays from this series including by Susanna Blume, Veronica Daigle & Grace Newsom, & Frank Kendall.

www.cnas.org/the-new-amer...

Deterrence at Scale Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

U.S. defense indsutry is built for short, sharp wars not protracted ones. New from Jenny McArdle in the @cnas.bsky.social New American DIB series: allied manufacturing strength can close the gaps domestic industry can't fill fast enough.
cnas.org/publications/commentary/deterrence-at-scale

CNAS Insights | Can the United States Sustain Its War Against Iran? Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

The U.S. is winning against Iran, but burning through the exact munitions it would need most against China. New @cnas.bsky.social analysis from @philipsheers.bsky.social & I on the hidden costs of Operation Epic Fury & what comes next.
cnas.org/publications/commentary/insights-sustaining-war-in-iran

Watch Iran Retaliates Following US-Israel Strikes - Bloomberg Bloomberg Economics Defense Lead Becca Wasser discusses Iran's retaliation to US-Israeli strikes over the weekend, and what potential moves lie ahead from the Trump administration. She joins Kailey Le...

Back to doing what I do best: pointing at things on maps. (It's a wargamer thing).

I walked through Iran's retaliatory strikes, what it has left in the arsenal, and what the “big wave” of strikes Trump promised might mean with Bloomberg TV.

www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

Eyes in the Sky Airborne sensing and air battle management are distinct but intertwined tasks.

New @cnas.bsky.social report: In "Eyes in the Sky," @philipsheers.bsky.social explains why airborne battle management aircraft aren't just vital in the Middle East—they're essential for DoD's top priorities, from a war with China to defending the homeland.
www.cnas.org/publications...

Hellscape for Taiwan Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

@mollykcam.bsky.social & my new report: "Hellscape for Taiwan"

We propose a layered drone defense—from 80 km out to the beaches—that could stop an invasion at the water's edge.

4 layers. Cross-domain fires. A theory of victory Taiwan can own.
www.cnas.org/publications...

I noted that "coordination has been lacking" increasing the risk of "cowboy behavior."

As Dems push for briefing on El Paso incident, experts warn it could be the ‘tip of the iceberg’ - Breaking Defense “I think coordination has been lacking, and you're seeing a lot more sort of cowboy behavior, which could be problematic,” Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow and director of the defense program at the ...

New from @breakingdefense.com by Michael Marrow & Val Insinna.

The El Paso shootdown highlights the hard work ahead to safely implement new counter-drone authorities for DoD, DHS, & local agencies.

breakingdefense.com/2026/02/as-d...