I don't want my shoes trying to think for me. But fortunately, birds aren't real.

I don't say it's *impossible* AI will be on the same scale eventually, but if so it won't be any more of a #singularity than the previous big technological shifts. "Our time is unique and nobody else has ever experienced any change this profound!" doesn't have a great track record.

And on the scale of revolutions in human affairs, I'm still going with #flint tools, controlled #fire, and #agriculture as somewhat bigger deals. On the second tier I'd put #writing, #machinery that runs on something other than #muscle power, and #electronics including computers themselves.

Congratulations, #computers! You've joined the entire rest of the universe. In that limited sense, the idea that we "don't understand #AI" is true. But it's not some unknowable permanent mystery.

So we need to #experiment to figure out the most probable results: "If I do this, what do I expect to happen?" Then quantify the #uncertainty about that expectation, which is pretty important when, say, #cancer patients want to know how long they have to live.

And? It doesn't mean we don't *understand* living systems, it just means we don't know every single thing that goes on inside them all the time.

That reminds me a lot of my job, which boils down to modeling living systems with #math and code. We know the #physics, we know the #chemistry, and we can observe the #biology. There are a whole lot of layers in between where apparently simple processes lead to remarkably complicated results. 🖥️ 🧬

Sure, there are things we don't understand about #LLMs. We know how the underlying #code works, and #tokenization, and all that, but the models are so complicated we can't just take them apart and look at them the way we would, say, a big database. This leads to unexpected emergent behaviors. 🧪 🖥️ 🧵

I don't deceive myself that #Magyar is going to usher in a glorious new era. On the US scale he'd be a standard issue pre-Trump Republican. But he does seem committed to democracy (I hope I'm right about that) and he's pro #EU, and at least not hostile to #Ukraine. Which right now seems like plenty.

Congratulations, #Hungary! I hope we can do the same.

Uphill both ways. That part is very important.

I just don't care. It's time for him to go.

Maybe Swalwell didn't do any of what he's accused of. Maybe he did some, but not the worst. Maybe he did all of it and genuinely believed at the time that it was consensual. I acknowledge that any of those could be true.

Which makes me a lot less thrilled to be one of Our People than I was when I filled out my membership application.

Throughout my life, I've been part of several quite different groups of Our People, and one thing they have in common is that they are very reluctant to admit repulsive behaviors right in front of their noses, because they're so sure only Those People do such things.

We also know, or should know, that abusers turn up in every walk of life, every job, every political party. Right now I'm catching more a whiff of "He can't be like that, he's one of Our People! That's a Those People problem!" Yeah. Never a good look.

And while I'm on that topic, all the cries about timing, the rumors of Roger Stone's involvement, etc.? Okay, it could be true. *Maybe* it's a plot to take down someone who was until recently a rising star. We know it happens.

By way of analogy, when Donald #Trump first ran for President, he had not yet been found legally liable for any sexual offenses. We'd be better off today if more #Republicans had chosen not to hold their noses and ignore the unmistakable stink of sleaze radiating off the guy. Sauce for the goose ...

Eric #Swalwell should not go to prison without trial. Of course. He shouldn't be a candidate for the governorship of the most populous state in the country, either, under the current circumstances. All the #Democratic Party and the voters of #California can do right now is go with their guts.

But there *is* an obligation to do what we think is best, with the knowledge we have at the time.

The political arena is not a courtroom. Elections are not trials. We the People are not prosecutors, or defense attorneys, or judges. Maybe we're closest to being jurors, but even that is a lousy analogy. There is no obligation to follow rules of evidence or procedure.

"Let's wait and see what the investigation shows! Anyway, the timing is suspicious! Whatever happened to innocent until proven guilty?" 🧵

Note the name of the group where this was posted. They really think they're scoring some kind of point.

Liberals punish our sex offenders. Conservatives idolize theirs.

Yes, yes it could.

[slow clap]

Boil 'em, mash 'em, stick 'em in a stew.

That might be the only way to do it, yeah.

There is no way in which he’s not a scumbag. Like anyone who sells their soul for Trump’s snake oil, I guess.

I need to be better about this. It’s too easy to stay with the comforting familiarity of what’s already on my bookshelf.

That being said, I know the stories I want to tell, and what’s popular right now isn’t going to change that. But I’m likely tell them *better* if I keep up. 🚀 🪶

Now, back to work. My #science doesn't make headlines, but it does keep people alive. Not because it is easy, etc. SCIENCE never sleeps, but scientists have to. Eventually.