Can climate models reproduce observed trends?
The answer can be challenging. Our new review paper in Science Advances led by Isla Simpson and Tiffany Shaw @drshaw.bsky.social discusses challenges and ways forward in confronting climate models and observations.
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
We made a short video on our paper 'how to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather' 👇
It’s rare these days for an article to get me excited but this one sets out some excellent perspectives. #climatestorylines #unprecedentedweather #adapt www.nature.com/articles/s41...
New perspective article by Kelder et al. explores methods to anticipate unprecedented #weather events and highlights the role of transformative, incremental, and reactive #adaptation strategies to achieve enhanced #resilience. @stichtingcas.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
For folks working with communities on climate action there is some excellent framing. Paying attention to stories helps process the new extreme/ reality & need for transformation. A story that resonated with me this year was ice rinks going out of business. We must respond.
The conceptual adaptation pyramid illustrates how three layers of adaptation contribute to resilience to unprecedented weather. (a) An unstable pyramid: with little transformative actions, we increase our reliance on incremental adaptation and place a lot of emphasis on handling unprecedented weather through early warning, early action and disaster response. (b) A stable pyramid: with more emphasis on transformative actions, we may be able to prevent limits to incremental adaptation, and have to place less emphasis on reactive actions.
What do we do with this information?
More transformative adaptation in advance to ensure greater resilience means less reactive adaptation required when the unprecedented event occurs.
Enjoyed being involved in this new perspective led by @timokelder.bsky.social, where we show the value of using multiple lines of evidence to assess plausible yet unprecedented extreme events that we need to be preparing for 🌍🌧️🌀🌡️
How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather?
Transformative adaptation, foundation for long-term resilience, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation - early action and disaster response.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather
Kelder et al. discusses a multitude of ways that we could anticipate unprecedented weather events that might otherwise be a surprise
rdcu.be/ecWQF
Screenshot of the webpage for the new paper 'How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather' out in Nature Communications at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-57450-0. The authors are Timo Kelder, Dorothy Heinrich, Lisette Klok, Vikki Thompson, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Ed Hawkins, Louise J. Slater, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Robert L. Wilby, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Stephen Burt, Bart van den Hurk, Hylke de Vries, Karin van der Wiel, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Antonio Carmona Baéz, Ellen van Bueren & Erich M. Fischer
How can we stop being surprised by unprecedented weather? Led by @timokelder.bsky.social (+many other colleagues) look at this in a new OA paper in @naturecomms.bsky.social. In particular, we discuss methods for that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We have seen many record-shattering and unprecedented weather extremes in recent years. In the paper led by @timokelder.bsky.social we review methods on how to stop being surprised by the next one.
Excited to have been part of this perspective, led by @timokelder.bsky.social, discussing how society can build resilience to, rather than be surprised by, unprecedented weather: 💪 vs 😱
Includes a review of methods to anticipate events, and discussion on adaptation practice and disaster management.
@dorothyclimate.bsky.social @vikkithompson.bsky.social @edhawkins.org @louiseslater.bsky.social @drlaurasuarez.bsky.social @lizstephens.bsky.social @karinvdwiel.bsky.social @lisaschipper.bsky.social @erichfischer.bsky.social
7/ Scientific advances improve our ability to anticipate extreme weather, but knowledge alone is not enough.
🌍 Interdisciplinary collaboration is essential—climate science, engineering & social sciences must work together.
🙏 Grateful to my brilliant co-authors for their collaboration on this work!
6/ One example:
🏝️ Sint Maarten restored power quickly after Maria with underground cables (incremental adaptation), yet informal settlements remained vulnerable, showing need for transformative change.
⚡ Puerto Rico, lacking such upgrades, faced prolonged outages from decades of underinvestment.
Figure 3 in the paper showing three layers of adaptation as a pyrimad
5/ Adaptation requires a multi-layered approach. We follow the conceptual Adaptation Pyramid:
🟥 Reactive adaptation
🟧 Incremental adaptation
🟩 Transformative adaptation
A balanced strategy is essential for reducing future surprises.
⬇️
4/ We can be surprised by unprecedented weather, or by its impacts.
❗ Some events are truly new—record heat, unexpected floods.
❗ Others aren’t new, but their impacts catch us off guard—because risks were underestimated, systems were unprepared.
We need better tools for both.
⬇️
Figure 1 of the paper showing the complementary lines of evidence to identify unprecedented weather
3/ Our research reviews key methods to anticipate unprecedented weather, including:
📊 Conventional statistical methods
📜 Historical observations & oral history
📖 Event-based storylines
🌍 Weather & climate models
Each provides a different piece of the puzzle.
2/ From record-breaking heatwaves to out-of-season floods, disasters are catching us off guard.
🌪️🌊 In 2017, Hurricanes Irma & Maria devastated the Caribbean, causing 4600+ deaths in Puerto Rico alone. Could we have foreseen & mitigated such impacts? 🤔
⬇️
A GIF of the perspective piece
1/ How to Stop Being Surprised by Unprecedented Weather
Our new @naturecomms.bsky.social paper provides our multi-author perspective on methods to anticipate extreme weather and reduce impacts, shifting from reacting with surprise towards resilience.
🔗 Read it here: doi.org/10.1038/s414...
🧵⬇️
Just for the record, a complete 🧵 of my 🧵 on adaptation.
bsky.app/profile/lisa...
Part I
#EGU24 High-impact climate events
After a year of countless record-breaking extremes, we organize (again) an #EGU24 session on understanding and quantifying such high-impact climate events and developing storylines for them!
Submit your abstract here:
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU24/sessio...