#IPCC 2nd lead author meeting in Santiago, Chile. Let the games begin, round two. 💪🤓

What can we learn from the responses of high resolution climate models when we lightly tickle* them?

Thank you @timraupach.com for leading this. I have fond memories of us wrestling with WRF code back at CCRC 🤓😶‍🌫️

*apply small perturbations to ensure lienar responses

#IPCC 7th Assessment Report first lead author meeting in Paris. Let the games begin 🤓

Overshoot: Exploring the implications of meeting 1.5C climate goal ‘from above’ - Carbon Brief The first-ever international conference on the contentious topic of “overshoot” was held last week in...

Super comprehensive report on our @iiasa.ac.at overshoot conference by @carbonbrief.org. Great summary and overview on some of the central discussion points. Check it out👇👇👇
www.carbonbrief.org/overshoot-ex...

Sorry, but disagree with @hausfath.bsky.social here. You open Pandora's box, you ain't closing it again. We've already seen with Paris that well intentioned international agreements do not translate into physical reality and SRM governance is a much harder problem. Zero is the only safe level. /1

🔥🔥New IIASA research shows that addressing social & economic vulnerability will be a key factor in mitigating the scale of financial damage due to wildfires & emphasizes sustainable development as essential to reducing climate-related impacts.
👉 iiasa.ac.at/news/jul-202...
@yilinghwong.bsky.social

Really excited about our upcoming @iiasa.ac.at AI for Climate Science Seminar with Veronika Eyring (@dlr-en.bsky.social en.bsky.social @unibremen.bsky.social) on Aug. 6th 2pm CEST

Info & registration here: iiasa.ac.at/events/aug-2...

Find out about future speakers here: iiasa.ac.at/projects/ai-...

Finally, huge thanks to my wonderful co-authors, @yannquilcaille.bsky.social , Ed Byers and Mia Werning, and my ICI colleages at @iiasa.ac.at 🤓

4) WHY it matters:

Our study highlights that:
🛑 Climate adaptation isn’t enough
✅ Equitable development (as in SSP126) is essential to reduce wildfire harm
🌐 Rich and poor countries alike benefit from resilience + mitigation, but the global South gains most
🔥 Climate justice = development justice

3) What the future holds:

By 2070:
📈 Under SSP370 (fossil-fueled development), global wildfire damages could TRIPLE vs SSP126
⚖️ SSP126 not only reduces total damages — it also lessens inequality in who gets hit
💡 Socioeconomic development can buffer climate-driven damage, but only up to a point

2) Our analyses shows the strongest predictors of wildfire damages are:
1️⃣ Human Vulnerability Index (HVI) — the biggest driver
2️⃣ Vapor Pressure Deficit (drier fire seasons = more damage)
3️⃣ Population density near forests — surprisingly, higher density = lower damages

1) As wildfires worsen with climate change, we need to understand not just where they burn — but who pays the price.
🌍 We combine historical data with SSP projections to analyze wildfire economic damages globally through 2070.

Spoiler: Following a sustainable path (SSP126) saves money 💸.

🔥 Just published! 🔥
Our new manuscript on global #wildfires look beyond burned areas and ask:
What drives the #economic damages of wildfires — now & in the future?
We find that socioeconomic vulnerability, not just #climate, is key.
📄 iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
(Highlights below ⬇️)

🔥 ⚖️ 🌐HAPPENING NOW: Historic #ClimateJustice Ruling being delivered by the 🇺🇳 🧑‍⚖️ International Court of Justice.
🚨This ruling could signal a new dawn for climate law & accountability
📝 🧵 Live thread below with context, summary & analysis 👇
#ClimateJusticeAO #AOLetsGo

🌍 SAVE THE DATE! Excited to announce that we'll be hosting the first-ever Climate Overshoot Conference at @iiasa.ac.at from Sep 30th - Oct 2nd, 2025. Thrilled to bring this critical conversation to Laxenburg/Vienna. 1/

iiasa.ac.at/events/sep-2...

Great analysis by @yilinghwong.bsky.social quantifying economic impacts from agricultural losses linked to extreme #drought and #heat and their attribution to carbon emitters.

This work with C. Lesk is part of the #NGFS acute physical risk assessment.

@iiasa.ac.at @lamont.columbia.edu

Join us for the next AI for Climate Science Seminar at @iiasa.ac.at featuring Prof. Steven Sherwood (@unsw.bsky.social):

Why We Still Need Traditional Climate and Earth System
Models - and How They Might Be Improved

07 May 2025
02:00-03:30 PM CEST

Register: iiasa.ac.at/events/may-2...

I am giving a talk about #AI for #climate science. Curious about how we can use #AI to model clouds? or how we can use #machinelearning to learn more about climate science communication? Tune in this Thursday (3rd April) at 2pm CET!

🌡️ With 2024 on track to be the hottest on record, scientists from IIASA and @columbiaup.bsky.social provide the first worldwide map of high-risk regions in a new @pnas.org study.
“These regions become temporary hothouses,” says lead author Kai Kornhuber.
🔎 iiasa.ac.at/news/nov-202...