A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for Cornwall, in South West England, with a turnout of 293,418 or 66.94%. Labour first with 26.42% and 2 seats (-2 from the actual 2024 election); Tories second with 26.18 and 2 (+2); LDs third with 24.84 and 1 (-1); Reform fourth with 16.55 and 1 (+1); Greens fifth with 4.70 and 0 (no change); Liberals next with 0.50 and 0 (no change); Independents on 0.44 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.37 with 0 (no change).

Onwards to the South West! Cornwall was 6 MPs, in FPTP, 4 Labour, 2 LD.

Here - with almost perfectly balanced vote %s for the top 3 parties! - Labour win 2, Tories 2, LDs 1, Reform 1.

LDs may feel "cheated" of a seat here - this is why I aimed for larger constituencies, to avoid this.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for the entire region of South East England, with a turnout of 4,351,416 or 65.59% Tories in first with 30.63% and 30 seats (no change from the actual 2024 election results); Labour second with 24.54 and 21 (-15); Lib Dems third with 21.86 and 21 (-3); Reform fourth with 14.00 and 13 (+13); Green fifth with 6.89 and 6 (+5); SDP sixth with 0.17 and 0 (no change); Independents on 1.26 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.69 with 0 (no change).

And that brings us to the South East summary! In FPTP, Labour won 36, Tories 30, Lib Dems 24, Greens 1.

Here, the Tories still have 30 seats! But Labour has dropped to 21, with 15 of their FPTP seats instead going to Reform (on 13) and the Greens (on 6). The Lib Dems also go slightly down to 21.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for East Sussex, in South East England, with a turnout of 407,979 or 66.19%. Labour first with 27.30% and 2 seats (-1 from the actual 2024 election); Tories second with 23.42 and 2 (no change); LDs third with 19.62 and 2 (no change); Greens fourth with 15.31 and 1 (no change); Reform fifth with 10.79 and 1 (+1); SDP next with 0.37 and 0 (no change); Independents on 2.54 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.63 with 0 (no change).

East Sussex has 8 MPs. In FPTP, 3 went Labour, 2 Tory, 2 Lib Dem, and 1 Green.

Here, well - things are pretty similar! The only change is Labour down 1 and Reform up 1

Labour on 2, Tories 2, Lib Dems 2, Greens 1, Reform 1.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for West Sussex, in South East England, with a turnout of 438,123 or 67.78%. Tories first with 31.47% and 3 seats (+1 from the actual 2024 election); Labour second with 24.70 and 2 (-1); LDs third with 22.22 and 2 (-1); Reform fourth with 13.86 and 1 (+1); Greens fifth with 5.86 and 1 (+1); Workers next with 0.55 and 0 (no change); Independents on 0.63 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.72 with 0 (no change).

West Sussex has has 9 MPs. In FPTP, 3 went Labour, 3 Lib Dems, 2 Tories.

Here, 3 Tories, 2 Labour, 2 Lib Dems, 1 Reform and 1 Green.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for Kent, in South East England, with a turnout of 828,240 or 62.51%. Tories first with 30.40% and 6 seats (no change from the actual 2024 election); Labour second with 30.07 and 5 (-6); Reform third with 20.36 and 4 (+4); Lib Dems fourth with 9.82 and 2 (+1); Greens fifth with 7.76 and 1 (+1); Swalde Inds next with 0.39 and 0 (no change); Independents on 0.56 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.64 with 0 (no change).

Kent has 18 MPs. In FPTP, 11 went Labour, 6 Tory, 1 Lib Dem.

Here, 6 again go Tory, while only 5 go Labour, 4 go Reform, 2 to Lib Dem and 1 goes Green.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for Hampshire and the Isle of Wight, in South East England, with a turnout of 931,260 or 63.59%. Tories first with 32.32% and 7 seats (-3 from the actual 2024 election); Labour second with 24.82 and 5 (-2); Lib Dems third with 20.40 and 4 (+1); Reform fourth with 15.51 and 3 (+3); Greens fifth with 5.93 and 1 (+1); Hampshire Inds next with 0.28 and 0 (no change); Independents on 0.18 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.56 with 0 (no change).

Hampshire and the Isle of Wight has 20 MPs. In FPTP, 10 went Tory, 7 Labour, 3 Lib Dem.

Here, Tories win 7, Labour 5, LDs 4, Reform 3, Greens 1.

There's an argument that the Isle of Wight could be its own 2-seat constituency instead - it would have elected 1 Lab, 1 Tory if that were the case.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for Surrey, in South East England, with a turnout of 588,173 or 68.40%. Lib Dems first with 35.28% and 4 seats (-2 from the actual 2024 election); Tories second with 33.27 and 4 (-2); Labour third with 14.08 and 2 (+2); Reform fourth with 12.20 and 1 (+1); Greens fifth with 4.39 and 1 (+1); True and Fair next with 0.14 and 0 (no change); Independents on 0.33 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.31 with 0 (no change).

Next to Surrey, which has 12 MPs. In FPTP, 6 each went to the Lib Dems and Tories.

Here, the Lib Dems and Tories both pick up 4, with Labour on 2, Reform 1, Greens 1.

This is another case where the Lib Dems FPTP targeted tactical voting delivers them fewer seats under this PR system.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for Berkshire, in South East England, with a turnout of 423,375 or 66.66%. Tories first with 31.36% and 3 seats (+2 from the actual 2024 election); Labour second with 25.65 and 2 (-3); Lib Dems third with 23.35 and 2 (-1); Reform fourth with 8.56 and 1 (+1); Greens fifth with 6.14 and 1 (+1); Independent Network next with 2.60 and 0 (no change); Independents on 1.42 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.92 with 0 (no change).

Berkshire has 9 MPs. In FPTP, Labour won 5, Lib Dems 3, Tories 1.

Here, again, the Tories enter first with 3 seats, with Labour and the Lib Dems on 2 each, and Reform and the Greens on 1 each.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for Buckinghamshire, in South East England, with a turnout of 392,056 or 66.78%. Tories first with 32.01 % and 4 seats (+2 from the actual 2024 election); Labour second with 27.58 and 3 (-2); Lib Dems third with 12.67 and 2 (+1); Reform fourth with 12.67 and 1 (+1); Greens next with 5.21 and 0 (no change); Workers next with 1.10 and 0 (no change); Independents on 0.88 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.39 with 0 (no change).

Buckinghamshire has 8 MPs. In FPTP, Labour won 5, Tories 2, Lib Dems 1.

Here, its the Tories with the most seats on 3, with Labour on 2, Lib Dems 2, Reform 1.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for Oxfordshire, in South East England, with a turnout of 342,210 or 68.48%. Lib Dems first with 34.23% and 3 seats (-2 from the actual 2024 election); Tories second with 27.07 and 2 (+2); Labour third with 20.05 and 1 (-1); Reform fourth with 9.87 and 1 (+1); Greens next with 5.75 and 0 (no change); Independent Oxford Alliance next with 0.70 and 0 (no change); Independents on 1.18 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 1.15 with 0 (no change).

Lets head to Oxfordshire, which has 7 MPs. In FPTP, 5 went Lib Dem and 2 went Labour.

Here, the Lib Dems win a solid 3, followed by Tories on 2, Labour on 1, and Reform on 1.

This is another case where the LDs concentrated tactical votes mean they won more under FPTP than they would under PR.

Thread 🧵 continued below!

We're now over halfway (~60%) through our election results. Let's have a look at how they're shaping up so far!

Labour 157 (-148), Tories 100 (+22), Reform 67 (+62), Lib Dems 36 (+17), Greens 30 (+27), Workers 4 (+4), Inds 1 (-4).

Half as many seats for Labour - far more in line with % vote!

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for the entire region of Greater London, with a turnout of 3,333,982 or 60.07% Labour in first with 45.97% and 33 seats (-26 from the actual 2024 election results); Tories second with 20.56 and 16 (+7); Lib Dems third with 11.02 and 8 (+2); Greens fourth with 10.06 and 8 (+8); Reform fifth with 8.68 and 8 (+8); Workers sixth with 1.62 and 2 (+2); Independents on 4.50 with 1 (no change); Other parties on 0.90 with 0 (no change).

That brings us to our London summary:

Labour in first with 33 (-26 from FPTP 2024), Tories 16 (+7), Lib Dems 8 (+2), Greens 8 (+8), Reform 8 (+8), Workers 2 (+2), Independents 1 (n/c).

Some things (like Corbyn) quite similar; others (like Labour on half as many seats) very different!

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for London East, in Greater London, with a turnout of 970,368 or 55.86%. Labour first with 45.72% and 12 seats (-8 from the actual 2024 election); Tories second with 15.52 and 4 (+1); Greens third with 12.45 and 3 (+3); Reform fourth with 9.73 and 3 (+3); Lib Dems next with 5.13 and 1 (+1); Workers next with 1.87 and 1 (+1); Independents on 9.04 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.54 with 0 (no change).

London East (Barking & Dag, Bexley, Greenwich, Hackney, Havering, Lewisham, Newham, Redbridge, Tower Hamlets, & Waltham) has 24 MPs. Labour won all but 3 (Tories) in FPTP.

Here, Labour win 12, Tories 4, Greens 3, Reform 3, LDem 1, Workers 1. If Ind vote wasnt counted separately, would win >2 seats.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for London South, in Greater London, with a turnout of 811,544 or 65.28%. Labour first with 33.53% and 6 seats (-1 from the actual 2024 election); Tories second with 24.20 and 4 (+1); Lib Dems third with 23.97 and 4 (-2); Reform fourth with 9.63 and 2 (+2); Greens fifth with 7.09 and 1 (+1); Workers sixth with 0.80 and 0 (no change); Independents on 0.30 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.49 with 0 (no change).

London South (Bromley, Croydon, Kingston, Merton, Sutton, & Wandsworth) has 17 MPs. In FPTP, Labour won 7, Lib Dems 6, Tories 3.

Here Labour wins 6, Tories 4, Lib Dems 4 (their highly efficient tactical votes working against them here compared to FPTP), Reform 2, and Greens 1.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for London West, in Greater London, with a turnout of 666,365 or 63.19%. Labour first with 42.52% and 6 seats (-9 from the actual 2024 election); Tories second with 27.57 and 4 (+1); Reform third with 9.32 and 1 (+1); Greens fourth with 7.74 and 1 (+1); Lib Dems fifth with 6.68 and 1 (+1); Workers sixth with 3.30 and 1 (+1); Independents on 2.46 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.39 with 0 (no change).

London West (Brent, Ealing, Hammersmith & Fulham, Harrow, Richmond, Hillingdon, & Hounslow) has 14 MPs. In FPTP, all but 3 (won by Tories) were won by Labour.

Here, Labour win 6, Tories 4, Reform, Greens and Lib Dems all 1, and Workers picks up seat, bringing it to 3 nationally.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for London Central, in Greater London, with a turnout of 527,310 or 57.24%. Labour first with 49.13% and 6 seats (-7 from the actual 2024 election); Tories second with 13.50 and 2 (+2); Greens third with 13.16 and 2 (+2); Lib Dems fourth with 10.03 and 1 (+1); Reform fifth with 5.66 and 1 (+1); one Independent sixth with 4.57 and 1 (no change); other Independents on 2.59 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 1.36 with 0 (no change).

Next up is London Central (comprising Camden, City, Kensington & Chelsea, Islington, Lambeth, Southwark, & Westminster) with 13 MPs. In FPTP, Labour won 12/13.

Here, Labour win 6, Tories & Greens both 2, Lib Dems and Reform both 1 - the final seat going to Independent Jeremy Corbyn.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for London North, in Greater London, with a turnout of 358,395 or 60.28%. Labour first with 48.68% and 3 seats (-5 from the actual 2024 election); Tories second with 23.19 and 2 (+2); Greens third with 10.08 and 1 (+1); Lib Dems fourth with 7.18 and 1 (+1); Reform fifth with 6.97 and 1 (+1); Workers sixth with 1.39 and 0 (no change); Independents on 1.55 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.96 with 0 (no change).

Let's head to London! As a reminder, London is split based on the 2011 London Plan sub-regions.

First up is London North (comprising Barnet, Enfield & Haringey), with 8 MPs. All 8 went Labour in FPTP.

Here, Labour still wins a solid 3, followed by 2 Tories, 1 Green, 1 Lib Dem and 1 Reform.

I think so! I'm planning to release a national Gallagher index at the end, but if I have time maybe I'll calculate for the other results as well, or at least by nation & region?

Thank you!

Yes, d'Hondt would favour larger parties in that way. I think there is an argument for it, but it would likely necessitate some of the smaller constituencies (Herefordshire, N&NE Lincs) to be merged to achieve a similar level of proportionality.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for the entire region of the East of England, with a turnout of 2,839,319 or 63.35% Tories in first with 30.62% and 18 seats (-5 from the actual 2024); Labour second with 29.40 and 17 (-10); Reform third with 17.48 and 12 (+9); Lib Dems fourth with 13.23 and 9 (+2); Greens fifth with 6.89 and 5 (+4); Workers sixth with 0.62 and 0 (no change); Independents on 1.42 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.34 with 0 (no change).

And that brings us to our East of England summary! In FPTP, the 61 MPs were dominated by Labour (27) and the Tories (23), who won 80% of seats on 60% of vote.

Here, they retain a strong lead of 18 (Con) and 17 (Lab), but Reform (12), Lib Dems (9) and Greens (5) all win seats in line with % vote.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for Essex, in the East of England, with a turnout of 821,386 or 60.90%. Tories first with 32.92% and 6 seats (-4 from the actual 2024 election); Labour second with 28.72 and 5 (no change); Reform third with 21.91 and 4 (+2); Lib Dems fourth with 9.53 and 2 (+1); Greens fifth with 5.18 and 1 (+1); Workers sixth with 0.10 and 0 (no change); Independents on 1.25 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.39 with 0 (no change).

Essex has 18 MPs. In FPTP, the Tories won 10, Labour 5, Reform 2 and Lib Dems 1.

Here, the Tories lose 4 seats winning 6, Labour again win 5, Reform win 4, Lib Dems win 2, and the Greens win the final seat.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for Hertfordshire, in the East of England, with a turnout of 560,772 or 66.64%. Tories first with 30.28% and 4 seats (+1 from the actual 2024 election); Labour second with 30.01 and 3 (-4); Lib Dems third with 19.04 and 2 (no change); Reform fourth with 13.90 and 2 (+2); Greens fifth with 5.81 and 1 (+1); Workers sixth with 0.47 and 0 (no change); Independents on 0.10 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.38 with 0 (no change).

Hertfordshire has 12 MPs. In FPTP (including 1 cross-county), Labour won 7, Tories 3, Lib Dems 2.

Here, Tories win 4, Labour 3 (-4!), Lib Dems win 2 again, 2 seats go to Reform and the final seat goes to the Greens.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for Bedfordshire, in the East of England, with a turnout of 288,176 or 61.67%. Labour first with 35.09% and 2 seats (-2 from the actual 2024 election); Tories second with 28.26 and 2 (no change); Reform third with 14.60 and 1 (+1); Lib Dems fourth with 9.16 and 1 (+1); Greens fifth with 5.45 and 0 (no change); Workers sixth with 2.78 and 0 (no change); Independents on 4.48 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.17 with 0 (no change).

Bedfordshire has 6 MPs. In FPTP (excluding 1 cross-county), Labour won 4, Tories 2.

Here, both Labour and Tories win 2, with the other 2 seats going 1 to Reform and 1 to Lib Dems.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for Cambridgeshire, in the East of England, with a turnout of 379,748 or 64.23%. Tories first with 30.08% and 2 seats (no change from the actual 2024 election); Labour second with 24.96 and 2 (-1); Lib Dems third with 21.95 and 2 (-1); Reform fourth with 12.70 and 1 (+1); Greens fifth with 6.60 and 1 (+1); Workers sixth with 1.63 and 0 (no change); Independents on 1.77 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.32 with 0 (no change).

Cambridgeshire has 8 MPs. In FPTP, Labour and LDs both won 3, while Tories won 2.

Here, the Tories keep 2, while Labour and the Lib Dems win 2 as well, with the final 2 seats going 1 Reform and 1 Green.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for Suffolk, in the East of England, with a turnout of 357,202 or 64.07%. Tories first with 30.73% and 2 seats (-1 from the actual 2024 election); Labour second with 29.49 and 2 (-2); Reform third with 18.46 and 2 (+2); Greens fourth with 11.82 and 1 (no change); Lib Dems fifth with 8.58 and 1 (+1); Communists sixth with 0.11 and 0 (no change); Independents on 0.62 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.20 with 0 (no change).

Suffolk has 8 MPs. In FPTP, Labour won 4, Tories 3, Greens 1.

Here, Tories, Labour and Reform all pick up 2, while Greens keep 1 (so that's Adrian Ramsay in Parliament still!) and the Lib Dems pick up the final seat.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for Norfolk, in the East of England, with a turnout of 432,035 or 63.93%. Labour first with 29.97% and 3 seats (-1 from the actual 2024 election); Tories second with 28.66 and 2 (-1); Reform third with 18.99 and 2 (+1); Lib Dems fourth with 11.63 and 1 (no change); Greens fifth with 8.68 and 1 (+1); Independent sixth with 1.45 and 0 (no change); other Independents on 0.29 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.32 with 0 (no change).

Let's get back into it! Next up we have Norfolk, with 9 MPs. In FPTP, Labour won 4/8 (excluding cross-county Waveney Valley), Tories 3/8, Reform 1 and LDs 1.

Here, things are not /too/ different, but Labour and Tories are brought a little down - Labour 3, Tories 2, Reform 2, LDs 1, Greens 1.

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for the entire region of the West Midlands, with a turnout of 2,425,857 or 58.19% Labour is in first with 33.99% and 21 seats (-17 from the actual 2024 election); Conservatives second with 27.59 and 17 (+2); Reform third with 18.11 and 10 (+10); Lib Dems fourth with 8.84 and 4 (+2); Greens fifth with 6.56 and 4 (+3); Workers sixth with 1.31 and 1 (+1); Independents on 3.24 with 0 (-1); Other parties on 0.36 with 0 (no change).

And here's our West Midlands (the region this time!) summary.

Labour on 21 (-17!), Tories on 17 (+2), Reform on 10 (+10), Lib Dems on 4 (+2), Greens on 4 (+3), Workers on 1 (+1).

This is one of the more proportional regions, with every party in the right order based on % for their seats!

A result summary (the full explanation for which is further up in the thread with the example results summary) for Herefordshire, in the West Midlands, with a turnout of 95,934 or 67.55%. Tories first with 32.01% and 1 seat (no change from the actual 2024 election); Greens second with 25.97 and 1 (no change); Labour third with 17.51 and 0 (no change); Reform fourth with 17.14 and 0 (no change); Lib Dems fifth with 7.05 and 0 (no change); SDP sixth with 0.10 and 0 (no change); Independents on 0.22 with 0 (no change); Other parties on 0.00 with 0 (no change).

Herefordshire is our smallest constituency with only 2 MPs.

Here again, we actually see the same result as FPTP! 1 Tory, 1 Green - so that's Ellie Chowns in Parliament!

There's an argument that Herefordshire should be merged with another constituency - but /which/ one is a another kettle of fish!

Oh yes, I have heard it... but didn't want to put anything in print that might be taken as libel! 😅