The moon never takes its eyes off the earth and is slowly backing away.

Unpopular opinion: it’s not enough for a statement to sound like it could be true, or for a statement to try to goad people on the “right side” into doing the “right thing,” if that statement isn’t actually true

Graph from the hot datacentres paper showing normalised temperature increase on the y axis and time from AI data centre in months on the x axis. The red line indicating the relationship between the two rises a tiny little bit from minus ten months to zero months and jumps massively thereafter to a higher constantish level.

What's weirding me out is that in this graph that's circulating it look like folks somehow manage to build data centres and get them fully operational in less than a month. At zero months and before, practically nothing; at just one month, absolutely everything. Is that explained in the paper?

Graph from the hot datacentres paper showing normalised temperature increase on the y axis and time from AI data centre in months on the x axis. The red line indicating the relationship between the two rises a tiny little bit from minus ten months to zero months and jumps massively thereafter to a higher constantish level.

What's weirding me out is that in this graph that's circulating it look like folks somehow manage to build data centres and get them fully operational in less than a month. At zero months and before, practically nothing; at just one month, absolutely everything. Is that explained in the paper?

What’s a zettajoule? The joule is the unit of energy. One zettajoule (ZJ) is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Joules. One times ten to the power of twenty one Joules. One followed by twenty one zeroes Joules. I will tell …

In 2025, the ocean gained 24 Zettajoules of heat, but what is a zettajoule?

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2026/03/28/w...

Where Is the Hottest Place on Earth? - NASA Science Satellite research shows that the world's hottest spot changes, though the conditions don't. Think dry, rocky, and dark-colored lands...and cities.

Surface temperature *is not* air temperature. So if you’re reading about data centers making things 2˚C hotter it’s not quite what you think.

science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-...

What’s a zettajoule? The joule is the unit of energy. One zettajoule (ZJ) is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Joules. One times ten to the power of twenty one Joules. One followed by twenty one zeroes Joules. I will tell …

In 2025, the ocean gained 24 Zettajoules of heat, but what is a zettajoule?

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2026/03/28/w...

“Do you just buy the threads you need, or are you a ‘must collect the whole set’ type?”

These are the same thing

I asked to stay in during break and the teachers assumed I was being bullied. I just wanted to read what happened to Dr Who in the last chapter. It really didn't help them come to the correct conclusion when I said I wanted to stay in because I was really worried about what was going to happen.

I did the absolute simplest calculation

T = E/(MC)

where T is the temperature change, E is the energy, M is the mass of the atmosphere and C is the heat capacity. With Levitus' numbers (and assuming 70% of the mass of the atmosphere is in the lower 10km) I get a temperature change of 66°C.

I don't know exactly how Levitus did his calculation and what assumptions were made. The difficulty is, as Levitus notes, that "earth's climate system simply does not work like that."

Easy bit first: 0°F is -17.8°C and 65°F is 18.3°C, so a *change* of 65°F is a change of about 36°C.

What’s a zettajoule? The joule is the unit of energy. One zettajoule (ZJ) is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Joules. One times ten to the power of twenty one Joules. One followed by twenty one zeroes Joules. I will tell …

What’s a zettajoule?

With approximations and back-of-an-envelope stuff that will make you cry.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2026/03/28/w...

Graph of daily sea surface temperature averaged from 60°S to 60°N. 2026 has just edged into record territory. Data from NOAA OISST v2.1

Graph of daily sea surface temperature averaged from 60°S to 60°N. 2026 has just edged into record territory. Data from ERA5.

Almost-global-average sea-surface temperatures are creeping up to record levels again and we’re still in La Niña (according to NOAA).

There’s some uncertainty though as you can see from these two datasets..

Graphs from
climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_dail...
And
pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
NOAA ENSO update
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...

Graph of daily sea surface temperature averaged from 60°S to 60°N. 2026 has just edged into record territory. Data from NOAA OISST v2.1

Graph of daily sea surface temperature averaged from 60°S to 60°N. 2026 has just edged into record territory. Data from ERA5.

Almost-global-average sea-surface temperatures are creeping up to record levels again and we’re still in La Niña (according to NOAA).

There’s some uncertainty though as you can see from these two datasets..

The local is where climate change has its effects, but it is also a global phenomenon. Connecting the two without losing sight of either one is a challenge.

Never judge a book by its cover particularly if you haven’t understood the cover and/or have no sense of humour.

These "odds of this happening by chance" nuggets are meaningless.

These "odds of this happening by chance" nuggets are meaningless.

You are not the only one. I would rather write gibberish than be second guessed by a mach.. margarine cannibal ornithoterablpfjopo

Graph with two panels. Upper panel shows monthly global mean temperature from ERA5 in orange with a red trendline drawn through it. The lower panel shows detrended global mean temperature still in orange and a Nino 3.4 time series plotted in blue. The peaks and troughs of the Nino 3.4 index come slightly before the corresponding peaks and troughs in global temperature.

Good question. It's the kind of thing everyone knows but there's not a single good reference. All I can offer is proof by graph. Orange line is monthly global mean temperature. Red line is a trendline. Blue line is Nino 3.4 index. Ups-n-downs in global temperature tend to lag the Nino 3.4 index.

The WMO State of the Global Climate 2025 report came out today.

The report landing page with the report, press release, Story Map, extremes supplement, and an interactive extremes map.

wmo.int/publication-...

mini-thread

This is the scary one. The earth’s energy imbalance has never been so out of whack. And it’s increasing. The only way it can balance again without stopping emissions is for the globe to get hotter.
(BTW: It’s also the empirical evidence some climate sceptics bang on about that it doesn’t exist)

The difficulty with precipitation and indicators is not that we lack indicators, but that there are dozens and no one can agree on just one. Everyone has their favourite.

The difficulties are most acute in contexts where climate change intersects with conflict and insecurity, further deepening vulnerabilities and straining already overstretched local capacities.

Crucially, the cascading and compounding impacts of multiple, sequential disasters severely limit the ability of communities to prepare for, recover from, and adapt to shocks. In Mozambique, three tropical storms in four months left little time to recover between shocks.

WMO works with other UN agencies - UNHCR, IOM, FAO, WFP - and the IDMC to understand and describe the socio-economic impacts of these extreme events. Extreme weather continues to affect food security and trigger displacement.

So there's also an interactive map highlighting all the events sent in by met services around the world. It's still not a systematic assessment, but it gives a good idea of how difficult a systematic near real time assessment of extremes would be.

experience.arcgis.com/experience/2...

The report contains a map showing a very abbreviated list of high-impact events. There is a supplement to the main report with a more extensive list of events, which is still far from exhaustive.

wmo.int/sites/defaul...