“The central question is whether Russia’s prospects for the military success Putin needs to justify this war have dimmed. The evidence suggests they have. The strategic costs for Russia is heading in a direction that Putin may not be able to reverse.” mickryan.substack.com/p/the-scales...
“Ukraine is acting & performing like it has the strategic momentum in this war; there is a fair argument that maybe now it does.” My latest. mickryan.substack.com/p/turning-th...
An interesting assessment of insights for #Taiwan from the war in Iran, from @SethGJones and @dbyman
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/o...
Ukraine’s strike campaign is hitting targets 1,000km away, costing Russia 40% of its recent oil windfall. Meanwhile, the Iran war is reshaping the Indo-Pacific. My weekly update on war and strategic competition covers it all. mickryan.substack.com/p/turning-th...
This week, Australia’s Defence Minister released the 2026 Australian National Defence Strategy. Overall, the focus & trajectory of Australia’s defence strategy remains consistent with the 2024 version. But there are some missed opportunities worth highlighting.
mickryan.substack.com/p/more-ambit...
New era alliance management…
Defence Minister Richard Marles has released the 2026 version of Australia’s National Defence Strategy (NDS). My quick assessment of the new strategy is now available at the @lowyinstitute.bsky.social .
www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
As we anticipate today’s NDS release, this is a terrific deep dive with Q & Steve to discuss crewed, uncrewed & massed autonomous systems in 21st century balanced force design.
www.defenceconnect.com.au/joint-capabi...
"The U.S. is not a victor imposing terms & garnering spoils. Until the White House realizes that a ledger of destroyed targets is not a substitute for a better & enduring political reality, we arent just walking the path to defeat, we are blindly sprinting down it." warontherocks.com/tactical-suc...
A crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just about oil. It is quietly threatening the global food supply.
“If the blockade drags on, Mr. Trump runs the risk of looking once again as though he failed to see around corners, anticipating what could go wrong with an attack on what appeared to be a weakened Iran.” www.nytimes.com/2026/04/13/u...
“The lessons of this war are not hard to find. They are exactly the same as those that should have been learnt from other wars that went badly wrong. The design was complacent, with the typical error of seriously underestimating the opponent.” samf.substack.com/p/the-causes...
Jokes aside, this is an incredibly important day for freedom and democracy and, most importantly, for basic common sense and human dignity, in the spirit of 1989.
“In March 2026, Iran’s drone campaign consumed thousands of expendable unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The critical technologies, manufacturing equipment, and components underpinning these platforms trace to the civilian manufacturing ecosystem of China.” jamestown.org/prc-supply-c...
Ukraine's frontline operations and long range strikes are hurting Russia more. China is helping Iran and has 'opened the classroom' to learn from the Iran War. This and more in my latest weekly update. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-learni...
A wide ranging interview with John Bigelow on the ASIAL Security Insider podcast about the war in Iran, the shape of future war and what this means for the national security of Western democracies.
www.asial.com.au/Web/News/All...
“What the PLA’s most attentive analysts are likely doing is war-gaming a Taiwan scenario in real-time using the Hormuz crisis as a live stress test for assumptions they have been modeling for decades. Some of what they are finding is deeply uncomfortable.”
cimsec.org/desert-storm...
"I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE!" - Good news.
As we await the expiration of President Trump's deadline for a deal with Iran, I explore the implications of his #Iran comments over the weekend in detail, including effectiveness of striking infrastructure, legal & ethical issues, alliances & civ-mil relations. mickryan.substack.com/p/a-bridge-a...
“He also flagged the enormous difficulty of securing the Strait of Hormuz and the risks of Iran blocking it. Mr. Trump had dismissed that possibility on the assumption that the regime would capitulate before it came to that.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...
"Trump’s Truth Social post of 5 April 2026, and his Easter press conference the following day, are a window into a strategic culture that has abandoned the accumulated wisdom of decades of American statecraft, legal development, and alliance management."
open.substack.com/pub/mickryan...
"The U.S. intel community is neither designed nor equipped to restrain a president who is moved by impulse, emotion & his own feelings. It can only provide him with info. When the president disregards what he’s told, or distorts it, that failure is his alone." www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
The latest ultimatum from the U.S president…
On @cnn.com this afternoon discussing the war in Iran and the rescue of the downed USAF aircrew.
My weekly update on war and strategic competition has just been published. This week, Ukraine disrupts Russia's spring offensive, the potential for U.S. boots on the ground in Iran, Pacific security and my Big 5 reading recommendations.
mickryan.substack.com/p/strikes-su...
❗️Libya has provided Ukraine with bases for attacks on Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea — RFI
Following an agreement signed in October 2025, over 200 Ukrainian officers and experts have been deployed to bases in Misrata, Zawiya (near the Melita oil complex), and Tripoli airport.
Hegseth just fired the Army Chief Gen Randy George. Immediately. Gen George the most competent and experienced combat leaders I have ever encountered. Courage. Integrity. Takes care of soldiers. A government of gangsters.
“The NATO portion of my medical training was severely lacking…it was very rigid. This is the way you must do it. That is not war. We have to adapt. If we don’t adapt, we die.” Good insights on rapid learning in modern war from the indomitable @bekamaciorowski www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQdD...
