Jon Stewart brilliantly cuts through to the absurdity of how Trump has waged this reckless war in a way that only comedy can do.

also critical that they delink Hormuz from the nuclear file and other issues that may emerge.

because the world cannot wait for the US and Iran to work out all their differences before this critical Strait is reopened; there has already been too much damage.

Iran War Live Updates: Tehran and Washington Plan New Talks in Pakistan

Good news if these talks move forward tomorrow.

But the 2-week ceasefire ends tomorrow, so it's critical they agree to an extension because deals don't get done in a day.

Reminder: Trump promised to get a better deal in his first administration to replace the 'worst deal ever' as I discuss in Chapter 5 of my recent book.

Spoiler: he never got that better deal.

It should be obvious by this point that just because Trump tells a reporter ‘Iran said it would do x, y, and z’ doesn’t make it true.

Maybe misinformation is good for markets but it’s not how negotiations on complex issues work

Iran got the Lebanon ceasefire (hopefully it sticks). Its 2nd big condition was release of frozen assets--this will be a harder sell in the US context but with Trump seeming eager for exit ramp it could happen.

We will need to wait and see what actually happens on the ground (or sea in this case...). What matters practically is how commercial shipping responds to these conflicting messages.

Why China Won’t Lean Hard on Iran

Good analysis on what China is gaining from US strategic setbacks in the Iran war and why China is not going to bail the US out by leaning on Iran (nor is it likely to help Iran much...)

Great joining @kqedforum.bsky.social this morning to talk US-Iran with @sangernyt.bsky.social and Robin Wright.

Even without a return to military conflict, there's no easy offramp and after 7 weeks of death and destruction it's unclear the outcome will leave us in a better place.

Given Israel and Hezbollah are the parties actually doing the fighting, it's pretty critical that both sides adhere to it.

There's still a gap between the Trump administration's rosy assessments and the reality on the ground, where relentless Israeli bombing continues in the south.

Photo with Dalia Dassa Kaye and UC Irvine professors outside a book talk on Enduring Hostility.

Many thanks to @jwassers.bsky.social and his UCI colleagues for hosting an engaging conversation on Enduring Hostility yesterday. A great community and sharp students!

U.S. Blockade on Iranian Ports YouTube video by Dalia Dassa Kaye

US blockade yet another policy made on the whim and unlikely to solve the Strait problem that didn't exist before this costly war started. My interview with @elexmichaelson.bsky.social last night

Good to know the US is ending its 47 year conflict with Iran. Not sure the Iranians, the region, or the rest of the world are seeing it that way (or Americans for that matter).

U.S. Is Negotiating an Iran Deal That Would Buy Time, Again

After all the death and destruction and a war that has upended the global economy it's all down to 2 issues:

1. reopening the Strait of Hormuz (a problem that didn't exist before the war)
2. nuclear: a problem Trump claimed was solved last June but that will require pretty familiar compromises

I've also seen posts suggesting the post wasn't verified. That said, the Chinese FM stated they oppose the blockade and urge restraint.

I'll leave it to China experts to assess how close we might come to a US-China clash over this but the fact we're talking about it isn't good

Here's where we are:

A costly military attack on Iran failed to achieve still unclear goals and created a new global energy crisis

Now we're trying a blockade on Iran's ports (after 1 day of diplomacy) fraught with risk and little evidence this will force Iran's capitulation.

this language harkens back to the line attributed to Kissinger--is Iran a country or a cause?

For many policymakers and analysts, it's difficult to imagine that Iran's leaders are threatening the region because they view it as their best gambit for survival and leverage, not because of ideology.

This Chinese position appears to contradict the assumption by those arguing in favor of the US blockade option (Richard Haass, Dennis Ross, etc.) that flipping the script would push the Chinese to pressure the Iranians to back down.

Opinion | The Trump Administration Is in a Psychotic State

I had missed this important piece explaining the dangers of ditching a normal policy process and why analysts and journalists are misguided by trying to fit Trump 2.0 decisions into a rational framework.

The harsh realities we are facing in the Iran war underscore these dangers.

This answers my question. Bottom line is if the US blockade happens no oil is getting out—more pain for all of us.

If a US blockade starts tomorrow it’s not likely the ceasefire will hold until April 22.

This @theguardian.com piece reports that the US sent 300 officials to the Islamabad talks. Has this number been reported/confirmed anywhere else? Other reporting suggested a small group of 5 or so US officials with Vance.

People will be closely studying how Hungary's opposition pulled off their win in such a pro-incumbent system. Important to note that the theme was corruption. Democrats need to get much better at calling out Trump's corruption.

The thing is, this is not like previous rounds.

It's no longer just about the nuclear issue

It's occurring during a war that initially tried to topple the Iranian regime and killed its top leadership

There is no normal d-m process in Washington

Analysis needs to adjust to these new realities

Amazing news for the people of Hungary that could have a huge positive ripple effect around the world.

Time to turn the global slide toward authoritarianism and repression around!

Let’s say this works and Iran’s oil can’t get out. But does any oil get out? How will the blockade reassure shipping from other nations than it’s safe to transit the Strait during what are continuing war conditions? Isn’t this a strategy where everyone loses?

Trump wants an Iranian surrender.

This is a predictable disaster the entire world will pay for.

If it wasn't clear already there is no exit strategy.

Less than 24 hours and an ultimatum is not a negotiation

My post from the first day of the war feels particularly relevant this week.