All of which leaves us here for the doubles 👇

💹 Market odds – final update | GW33

Final update on projections from sharp betting markets ahead of today's #FPL deadline

Some of the changes from first look:
CHE 📈 +0.09
BHA 📈 +0.09
NEW 📉 −0.13
LIV 📉 −0.13

Why not 😅

3) Our top #FPL GK and forward picks👇

2) Our top #FPL midfielder picks👇

Still undecided on GW33 transfers or your Free Hit team?

Here's a detailed look at our top projected players from each position - plus the underlying numbers that go into those projections!

1) Our top #FPL defender picks 👇

Solio projected #FPL points and picks | GW33

Minutes updated after press conferences - a look at some of the current top projected players & an example FH team

Lots of very similar scoring variations this week!

Projections update until deadline:
👉 fpl.solioanalytics.com

Yeah, don't know what the Spreadex guys are cooking there - he's normally higher (and we have him modelled higher on site). Either mins/start, which doesn't really make sense, or they've just decided he's going to play holding mid and dinged him. Not sure!

💹 Market goal projections | GW33

Spread market goal projections for this round of games, via SpreadEx - markets assume a player starts (or 2 starts for DGW)

For DGW players, midweek projections are estimated from team goal markets & player goal share from fixture one

📊 Projected goals & clean sheets | GW33-38

Latest projections from sharp betting markets & our Solio team strength model - hopefully useful for navigating the last 6GWs of the #FPL season! 👇

(Assumes MCI-CRY→36, 1+CS% shown for DGW)

Updated simulations after GW32 👇

Main changes:
- Title race tightening → ARS & MCI more likely to go deep (good for BB36/TC36)
- MUN less likely to secure top 5 early
- LEE (relegation race) & NEW (UEL/UECL) at higher risk of having nothing to play for late

💹 PL Matchups - First Look | DGW33

Early look at the sharp market projections for #FPL GW33, ahead of the Saturday deadline 👇

(re-posted because there was a GW typo in the first image and it would have annoyed me forever 😅)

I mean, maybe there's something there about him managing rotation around busy schedules late on, but there's always so much potential for fitting narratives to noise with these samples 😅 And the raw win% by month is always a bit silly, when you have UCL KO and late stage cups in April, etc.

Arteta & April discourse back after yesterday

In PL only (CL/cups skew it) and vs markets, it looks bad on the surface

But month-to-month swings are common & it doesn't reach statistical significance. Never quite enough data with these things to be sure about signal v noise 😅

💹 Market odds – final update | GW32

Final update on projections from sharp betting markets ahead of today's #FPL deadline

Some of the changes from first look:
WHU 📈 +0.09
NEW 📈 +0.06
LIV 📉 −0.07
TOT 📉 −0.07

Solio projected #FPL points and picks | GW32

Minutes updated after press conferences - these are the current top projected players & an example WC32/BB33/FH34 team ahead of today's deadline 👇

Projections will auto-update until deadline
👉 fpl.solioanalytics.com

💹 Market goal projections | GW32

Spread market goal expectations for this round of games, via SpreadEx - markets assume a player starts

*No SUN-TOT player goal markets currently available

💹 Rest of season projected goals + assists

One last look at these....

How many goals + assists do spread markets think attackers will deliver from now until the end of the season?

(See footnote for missing player markets)

Yeah, definitely a consideration, I think Wieffer and Groß would probably be safer (and more boring!) picks for the double alongside Van Hecke and the GK 😅

And the teams most likely to have something to play for until the end 👇

Which teams might be "on the beach" before the season ends? 🏖️

Simulating the PL run-in → % chance teams are mathematically locked into an outcome tier (title, Europe, relegation, etc) by each #FPL GW

Ordered by most at risk 👇

6) Burnley (nfo, MCI)

- Anthony has been reliable for starts; an outside argument for Flemming as a third FWD if you want to try something different
- But... this probably isn't the team to be loading up on 😅

5) Leeds (WOL, bou)
- Struijk reliable starter & DEFCON; Gudmundsson safe; Darlow should keep the GK spot
- Stach solid (DEFCON and set pieces) but now an injury doubt
- DCL consistent starter when fit, underlyings still decent and pen share - small rotation risk midweek?

4) Bournemouth (new, LEE)
- Senesi (8YC) & Hill strong for DEFCON; Truffert some DEFCON & creative threat
- Tavernier reliable & set pieces (pens now uncertain); Scott nailed and good DEFCON; Rayan the spicy pick?
- Evanilson solid but prone to early subs; Kroupi Jr risky for BB

3) Brighton (tot, CHE)
- Van Hecke reliable and DEFCON potential; Kadıoğlu nailed but low ceiling; Verbruggen a safe BB pick
- Groß ever-reliable & set pieces; Gomez (RW) DEFCON upside but 9YC; Mitoma decent mins when he starts
- Welbeck good output, but risky for midweek games!

2) Man City (ARS, bur)
- O'Reilly, Semenyo and Haaland will be the popular picks, for good reason
- Nunes, Guehi and Aït-Nouri have all been consistent starters, but with lower ceilings; Donarumma a safe route to MCI defence
- Cherki the upside punt!

A short🧵to help identify some of the more reliable #FPL picks from DGW33 teams

Playing time & output over the last 12GW 👇

1) Chelsea (MUN, bha)
- JP & Palmer consistent starters with strong output
- Enzo 8YC and out GW32; Neto limited upside?
- GK/DEF hard to rely on

💹📊 Projected goals & clean sheets | GW32-38

With the #FPL fixture landscape becoming clearer, here's the long view for the rest of the season

Projections from sharp betting markets + our Solio team strength model (assumes MCI-CRY moves to GW36) 👇

💹 Market odds – final update | GW31

Final update on projections from sharp betting markets ahead of today's #FPL deadline

Some of the changes from first look:
FUL 📈 +0.11
TOT 📈 +0.05
NFO 📉 −0.08
WHU 📉 −0.06

Solio projected #FPL points and picks | GW31

Minutes updated after press conferences - these are the current top projected players & an example FH team ahead of today's deadline 👇

Projections will auto-update until deadline
👉 fpl.solioanalytics.com