Parsimonious model - matching census variables can be 95% matched even going back to 2001 census. Before then more difficult. Also found 2011 census variables more predictive than 2001 even for early election. Think Focaldata have already done 1997-2019 on new boundaries. Will send
I will be doing this
Join Scarlett Maguire, @jameskanag.bsky.social and myself live with @mattchorley.bsky.social from 5 past 3 for our regular @bbc5live.bsky.social Poll Position segment! Do tune in!
Vs the SNP vote share is very dislocated - 16% of variance. I’ve described Westminster / Holyrood dynamic as a dysfunctional Stoppard play within a play
We’ve been analysing what drives support for scottish independence. I was surprised that 50% of the variance of support is driven by which PM is in charge and high the aggregate right wing (Con/Ref) vote is in the U.K.
A rather glum New Year’s Eve Times column on Scottish independence and the rise of Reform UK.
www.thetimes.com/article/57aa...
Completely agree. Would have been a great gesture
Interesting piece by Bloomberg’s Alan Crawford fleshing out my thesis on “collar flipping” in the UK, and how this might shift the political geography of the U.K. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The better pollsters have them nearer this figure. We’ve had them underestimated in 205, 2019 and 204, so not too surprising
Firmly expect in the future “let’s wait for Verian”. So many polling firms today, with few barriers to entry. Online panels chock full of professional test takers and bots. Online samples lack two groups - time poor Tories and offline poorer left voters. These two groups explain most polling misses
Very likely to be the truest measure of voting intention today given their Methodology and the expense of doing so / record at the general election. Reform surge real, labour collapse at worse end of expectations, big gains for liberals and greens. Tories at higher end of polling
New post just out:
Six lessons from the 2024 election.
And what they mean for the next one.
Covering: Labour's fatal misunderstanding about why they won; effects of a more fragmented system; changes in media/polling.
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...
Podcast: Why Is Britain So Depressed? • James Kanagasooriam On Our "Low Agency" Culture And How To Fix It
Why we should pay more attention to political humour @jameskanag.bsky.social
www.thetimes.com/article/8bf3...
I had enormous fun writing this piece over the half term break for @thetimes.com Why humour is the superpower of politics. Featuring polling from @focaldata.bsky.social and @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social
Done a long Twitter thread on it which I will post
Adjusting for education, age and density interactions plus job occupation there’s not much else going on; except for 2 things. Welsh speaking areas of wales, and Liberal Democrat challenge areas (which applies +15 to their vote). Reason behind latter more to do with non conformism / Methodism
Strong
Completely agree. Being able to do nice things without being super rich really is the acid test
George Abaraonye takes hard to nail. It’s interesting for orthogonal reasons. 1/ private fleeting moments blowing up to global scrutiny - a la Coldplay 2/ Oxford’s admissions criteria 3/ political reasoning across left and right that is sociopathic 4/ free speech debate 5/ why is Oxford in the news
🚨 The UK Youth Poll 2025 is here! 🚨
Young people believe in democracy but fear for its future. They want better politics & financial stability.
📊 Read the #UKYouthPoll2025 now: www.ukyouthpoll.com
@focaldata.bsky.social @uofglasgow.bsky.social #Nationwide
Parenting becoming more effort filled is downstream of so many things - the necessity of dual incomes in some areas, housing, atomised living, geographically dislocated families, a public realm that doesn’t have lots of nice free stuff, a culture of individualism over community, declining faith.
😂
I’ve written today for @thetimes.com on how our shortening attention spans are damaging our politics. Another slightly doomery column
Just read this and it’s a pretty astonishing paper download.ssrn.com/2024/10/20/4...
It’s in the telegraph, the national, GB news, the canary. I think Ben’s point is largely correct though - we don’t have a equally politically loaded town square since early Twitter and we’re all poorer for it
The sheer number of non voters towards the lower end of the income spectrum indicates the potential for much higher turnout in a multiparty system
The lovely people @britishelectionstudy.com released the random probaility data which means we can begin to unravel some unanswered questions about turnout in 2024.
A substack to follow but a starter of social class and vote/non-vote. Which party represents the working class? None of the above.
Clearly not a reference to every single person so I’ve deleted the comment. But the selection is interesting. Organically not much happened which is bens point.
Really enjoyed your piece
