If you're in the mood for a bit of a deep dive explainer on the private credit boom (and its risks!), by jingo, I've got you covered.
Trying something new on my youtube page, and I'm interested in what you think: www.youtube.com/watch?v=sa2E...
Private credit is the bit of finance that’s not banks and not public bond markets, but is now big enough to matter for everyone else. Translation: a lot of business lending migrated somewhere less visible.
Warsh hearing so far has been kind of frustrating. No one has asked the questions that seem most relevant to me:
1) is Trump's criminal investigation into Powell appropriate?
2) what would you do if Trump threatened retribution against you if he didn't like your actions/Fed policy decisions?
Sen. Warren: "Did Donald Trump lose the 2020 election?"
Handsome Kevin: "ummm... errr... "
His response raises real questions about whether Warsh is independent of the President and if he has the courage to tell hard truths.
Kevin Warsh just lost me. He argues he's going to be an independent Fed Chair, but refuses to acknowledge that Trump lost the 2020 election. If you can't state simple facts when you're in the political spotlight, you aren't independent. You're a coward.
The party of free markets, of Reagan, the intellectual heirs of Milton Friedman, the champions of market forces over big government, and of free enterprise and small business over the jackboots of government intervention.
A few thoughts about tariff refunds: www.motherjones.com/politics/202...
Whatever happens with the ceasefire, it's worth remembering that even if the war ends, the damage remains. The broader economic consequences are large, and persistent, and affect all of us.
Optimism is not a policy tool. If there’s no clear timeline for resolution, energy markets will price in uncertainty. And uncertainty is costly because firms can’t plan and households can’t budget.
Optimism is not a policy tool. If there’s no clear timeline for resolution, energy markets will price in uncertainty. And uncertainty is costly because firms can’t plan and households can’t budget.
Whatever happens with the ceasefire, it's worth remembering that even if the war ends, the damage remains. The broader economic consequences are large, and persistent, and affect all of us.
The concerns I expressed about unanswered questions proved to be unfortunately prophetic.
This week gave us yet another example of the pattern of good news while markets are open, followed by the real news coming as soon as they're closed.
Oil prices are falling, but don't celebrate at the pump just yet. The Strait of Hormuz is "open" — for now. We're 5 days into a 10-day ceasefire. A lot can still change.
Seems like genuinely good news from the Gulf today. Fingers and toes crossed that it holds.
Two things can be true at once: the price effect on U.S. drivers may be modest, and the geopolitical effect may be serious. Econ isn’t just about what you pay today; it’s also about who gains power tomorrow.
A lotta economic damage from this war will persist long after it ends.
Lemme youtube-splain: www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTuS...
"If your local bakery loses one of its ovens, the whole neighborhood ends up having to get by with less bread."
That's the whole game. Markets can calm fast; physical production can't.
Here’s the thing—especially on April 15: cutting the IRS isn't some abstract budget trim. It's a tax cut delivered through weaker enforcement. And it mostly goes to people with the most scope to hide income.
The question that I get asked most often these days is: Even if the ceasefire in Iran holds, has the war already imposed large irreversible costs on Americans?
So I made a video about these issues. The stakes may be much larger than you think: www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTuS...
The economy right now is doing that thing where it says “I’m fine” while white-knuckling the steering wheel and taking 8 attempts to parallel park.
The question that I get asked most often these days is: Even if the ceasefire in Iran holds, has the war already imposed large irreversible costs on Americans?
So I made a video about these issues. The stakes may be much larger than you think: www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTuS...
2025: blockading American ports. 2026: blockading Iranian ports. Same move, different flag.
If your grand strategy is just “less trade for everyone,” mate, that’s not chess. That’s flipping the board.
Yeah, that's bad. Dumb populism.
Think about it this way: If you had a pot of cash to hand out, who would you send it to? I'm guessing you wouldn't say: “Folks who drive a lot are obviously the neediest; that's who deserves my cash.. Also, I would love to subsidize reliance on foreign oil.”
An economist’s job isn’t to pretend certainty where none exists. If the key decision-maker is wildly inconsistent, the right forecast comes with a very wide error bar.
You're amazing, mate. Congrats.
"If you’re gonna spend another dollar, that means you’re gonna have to tax another dollar."
That’s the whole game here. More defense spending isn’t free. It’s a bill with your name on it.
You can listen to the whole thing, here: www.wbur.org/onpoint/2026...
Worth it, mainly to hear the brilliant Linda Bilmes talk about her work on the cost of the Iraq war.
“Gold has no inherent value. It's a shiny rock... people buy gold because they think other people value gold, and that's a self sustaining equilibrium.”
"Oil is an absolutely essential commodity that's built into our economy in all sorts of ways that are not immediately obvious."
It shows up in diesel, jet fuel, fertilizer, plastics, asphalt, and more. So when oil gets pricier, the hit doesn’t stop at the pump. It spreads through the whole economy.
Inflation expectations are the group chat of macroeconomics: once everyone thinks prices are going up, everyone starts acting like prices are going up, and then... surprise... prices go up.
