4/ Congratulations to Marcos Ortega, Sebastian DiBenedetto, Krishang Surapaneni, Theo Machado, Marco Pizarro, and the rest of the students who brought home the top spot for UF!
Read more: news.ufl.edu/2026/04/busi...
3/ The contest aligned with work they were already doing in Camaines:
2/ Apparently the core group are all members of the Caimanes Student-Managed Equity Hedge Fund at UF Warrington:
1/ We’re not playing favorites, but the data doesn’t lie; @ufl.edu cleaned up in the Bridgewater x Metaculus Tournament, logging not the highest overall score on the School Leaderboard, and doing so with only 14 forecasters.
We found an article explaining how they pulled it off—read on!
Forecast here: www.metaculus.com/tournament/l...
The winners from our first forecasting tournament! You can make predictions now for the U.S. Democracy Threat Index on @metaculus.bsky.social, which has a $10,000 prize pool www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...
7/ If you work in AI, labor economics, workforce development, education, or policy -- or if you just think carefully about how technology changes work -- we hope you share your predictions.
The tournament is live now! Full hub launches April 20.
Start forecasting here:
6/ The hub will combine community and expert predictions with written rationales into a resource for policymakers, educators, and researchers making workforce decisions.
5/ These forecasts feed directly into a Labor Automation Forecasting Hub we're launching April 20 with
@renphil21.bsky.social & Schultz Family Foundation.
4/ The Labor Automation Tournament has a $35,000 prize pool, and not just for prediction accuracy.
We're awarding comment prizes for strong reasoning, relevant data, and analysis that helps the community think through these questions.
3/ A few examples from the tournament:
• What will be the underemployment rate among new graduates?
• What will real hourly median wages look like?
• How many Fortune 500 companies will have fewer than 5,000 employees?
2/ The question set covers occupation-level employment changes, wage shifts, and broader labor market indicators, all tracked through 2030 and 2035.
How will AI reshape the labor market?
We just launched the Labor Automation Tournament to forecast how automation will affect jobs, wages, and the workforce through 2035, with $35,000 in prizes for predictions and analysis.
More info below!
5/ If you're looking to participate in forecasting contests like this, don't miss our other collaboration with Bright Line Watch, the U.S. Democracy Threat Index, which carries a $10,000 prize pool:
3/
- Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?
- Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?
- Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
2/ Forecasters competed across 25 questions for the $2,500 prize pool. Questions included:
1/ The Bright Line Watch Tournament has concluded! It included a mix of existing Metaculus questions & ones created by BLW, a nonpartisan watchdog group that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017 (👀 @brendannyhan.bsky.social)
Congratulations to all the medalists & prize winners!
Charlie Fink's latest piece in
@forbes.com features FutureEval, our benchmark testing how accurately AI can predict real-world events. forbes.com/sites/charli... (paywalled)
Learn more about these and other questions designed to help make sense of what is on the horizon for global health here: www.metaculus.com/tournament/d...
There are 2 vaccines on the horizon for tuberculosis, the M72 & MTBVAC. In our “Frontiers in Disease Prevention” series with Coefficient Giving, we’re hosting forecasts about when they will be approved & what the uptake will look like. #worldtbday
We love to see it: check out the heatmap for our newly launched FutureEval page. The red hot section? Our methodology tab.
We love that our community cares so much about the how’s and why’s. It’s this energy that makes the forecasts as strong as they are.
11/ If you work in:
- plant biotech
- genomics
- regulatory science
- biosecurity
- ecosystems
- biomanufacturing
…we want your takes! And tap your colleagues in. Even quick gut forecasts from domain experts are valuable. www.metaculus.com/tournament/h...
10/ More questions will be released in the coming weeks! Stay tuned.
9/ We’re also forecasting public opinion: What percentage of survey respondents in the 2031 Eurobarometer on Food Safety will say they are concerned about GMOs?
(Policy, communication, and public sentiment will all play a role in what biotech can be deployed)
www.metaculus.com/questions/42...
8/ When will the first precision-bred organism be commercially authorized in the UK?
(This question sits at the tricky intersection of policy & tech. Regulatory timelines here could reshape global ag biotech incentives)
www.metaculus.com/questions/42...
7/ How many seed plant species will have structurally annotated genomes before 2030?
(Genome assembly costs are plummeting, but annotation is still the bottleneck)
www.metaculus.com/questions/42...
6/ Plant biotech: Will thale cress, maize, and soybean achieve 50% faster transformation-to-T1 seed timelines before 2030?
(Faster transformation pipelines could compress decades of crop dev into years, accelerating breakthroughs to feed a hotter, hungrier world.)
www.metaculus.com/questions/42...
5/ Below are a few examples of forecasting questions from the tournament to whet your appetite. If you’re a researcher in these (or related) domains, please share your predictions!
