Lessons for the US from Hungary’s elections Ambassador Dan Baer on the fall of Victor Orbán and what comes next

With this past weekend’s historic elections, Hungary has gone from being “a very good bad example” of democratic backsliding to a potential model for democratic resilience.

Dan Baer unpacked this transformation, with @ari-shapiro.bsky.social: substack.com/home/post/p-...

Hungary's Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party suffered a landslide defeat in elections this weekend, ending his 16 years as the country's Prime Minister. How did we get here, and why is it so important? Thomas Carothers explained.

Why Viktor Orban's Fidesz Party Lost The opposition’s stunning victory offers lessons for U.S. Democrats—and a warning for Trump’s allies.

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán suffered “a crushing, historic defeat” in this weekend’s elections. How did his party, despite efforts to tilt the election in its favor, lose? And what are the lessons for the U.S.?

Tom Carothers explains for @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/12/w...

The Artemis II crew splashes down to Earth tonight. But NASA missions aren't the only things getting attention in space. @nktpnd.bsky.social joins Noah Tan to unpack the concept of nuclear weapons in space (and why it's a bad idea).

Why Do We Have a Crisis of Truth and Trust? YouTube video by Carnegie Endowment

Think tanks shape policy through research. But in an era where facts-based expertise seems to matter less and less, what role can (or should) these institutions play?

Carnegie president Tino Cuéllar discusses with Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked: www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Vzq...

This week’s ceasefire in Iran is a far cry from a quick solution to the conflict.

Amr Hamzawy, @andrewleber.bsky.social, @ericlob.bsky.social, and Marwan Muasher unpacked regional reactions, steps forward, and multiple major sticking points: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Keeping adversaries guessing can be an effective foreign policy strategy, but only if it’s balanced with diplomacy. By pairing unpredictability with aggression, President Trump has unsettled allies in Europe.

Dan Baer and @erikbrown.bsky.social explain: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

The ceasefire in Iran appears to be a step forward, but it hasn't brought the war to a close. @andrewleber.bsky.social weighed in.

President Trump's threats to Iran this morning open the door to potential violations of the Geneva Conventions. Stewart Patrick weighed in.

Trump’s Fundamental Misunderstanding in Iran What makes the nation suffer helps the regime thrive.

The Iranian regime’s goal is survival by any means necessary, not what’s in the interest of Iranians. The Trump administration still doesn’t seem to understand this.

@ksadjadpour.bsky.social explains in his latest for @theatlantic.com: www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

Belligerent and Beleaguered: Russia After the War with Ukraine No matter how its war against Ukraine ends, Russia will emerge less secure, more aggrieved, and posing a greater threat to Europe than it did when it started this war.

For more, see the first paper in Carnegie’s Future of Russian Power initiative here: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Invading Ukraine created significant security challenges for Russia. Even though he can’t win the war, Putin is “all in on it anyway.” And those challenges won’t go away when the war ends.

Eugene Rumer explains: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

“No Kings” protests in the U.S. and globally have mobilized millions against the Trump administration’s policies. But are mass protests enough to spark actual democratic change?

@saskiabr.bsky.social and Shreya Joshi unpack: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

What Trump Really Wants From China YouTube video by Carnegie Endowment

President Trump was supposed to meet with Xi Jinping this week. He's focusing on the Iran war instead. It's not the only way that Washington has failed to focus on Asia.

Ali Wyne joins Jon Bateman to discuss on today's World Unpacked. Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqL6...

Former U.S. ambassador talks about Trump's rhetoric on NATO NPR's A Martinez asks Dan Baer, former U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, about the Trump administration's recent rhetoric around NATO.

When President Trump “undermines” the trust of NATO allies, says Dan Baer, “he weakens NATO and makes it less able to defend U.S. interests."

Hear more from Dan on @npr.org: www.npr.org/2026/04/03/n...

In Its Iran War Debate, Washington Has Lost the Plot in Asia The United States ignores the region’s lived experience—and the tough political and social trade-offs the war has produced—at its peril.

Washington’s focus on how the Iran war affects competition with China ignores the lived reality and tough trade-offs that governments, businesses, and people across Asia face as a result of the war – and that’s dangerous.

Evan Feigenbaum explains why: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Some Countries Are Better Prepared for an Energy Crisis This Time As the Iran war shocks oil prices, countries that have invested in renewables, EVs, and battery development since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine are seeing the value of their investments.

The Strait of Hormuz closure has thrown the world into yet another energy crisis. Countries that invested in renewables after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are better prepared to weather it, but they’re still at risk.

@noahjgordon.bsky.social explains: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

A New Generation Takes Power in Nepal The incoming government has swept Nepal’s election. The real work begins now.

Nepal is entering a new political era. With a new generation in power and growing optimism around the RSP party, the country may be poised for real change.

@amishmulmi.bsky.social explores the most recent election results and their broader impact: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Trump is fighting a ‘boomer war’ in Iran: a relic unpopular with anyone under 60 | Stephen Wertheim To see this war as archaic, the last squawk of the Middle East hawks, is at once maddening and hopeful

By waging an unpopular war on an essentially unilateral basis, “Trump has taken undemocratic warmaking to new heights,” says @stephenwertheim.bsky.social. That could mean a future of conflicts where the public has no say.

More in @theguardian.com: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Japan’s Security Policy Is Still Caught Between the Alliance and Domestic Reality Japan’s response to U.S. pressure over Hormuz highlights a broader dilemma: How to preserve the alliance while remaining bound by legal limits, public opinion, and an Asia-centered security agenda. To...

Japan's response to the Strait of Hormuz crisis offers a “revealing window” into the tension it faces between its alliance with the U.S. and its domestic and regional interests.

Ryo Sahashi explains: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

The Xi Doctrine Zeros in on “High-Quality Development” for China’s Economic Future In the latest Five-Year Plan, the Chinese president cements the shift to an innovation-driven economy over a consumption-driven one.

China’s new Five-Year Plan puts Xi Jinping’s political stamp on the country’s economic future, in the form of its emphasis on “high-quality development.”

Damien Ma explains the significance of this move, for Emissary: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Inside the Pentagon’s AI War Machine YouTube video by Carnegie Endowment

The Iran war is an AI war. But for Americans at home — and for the world — the details are hidden, and the consequences are unclear.

@katrinamanson.bsky.social joins Jon Bateman to uncover the shadowy world of AI warfare on today's World Unpacked: www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2XG...

The Trump Administration’s Tangled Talk About Democracy Abroad How significant are statements by senior U.S. officials about supporting democracy abroad in the context of a foreign policy led by a president focused on near-term transactional interests?

For more, read his recent article (with McKenzie Carrier): carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Trump’s Tangled Talk on Democracy Abroad YouTube video by Carnegie Endowment

Does President Trump want to support democracy abroad? It’s complicated – and sometimes confusing. Thomas Carothers untangles 3 key themes in the administration’s rhetoric: youtube.com/shorts/3oLaF...

Why Russia Is Losing the Sahel Moscow’s missteps offer a warning—and an opening—for Washington.

Since 2020, Russia has expanded its influence in Sahel, capitalizing on mounting instability. But as Russia’s appeal for countries in the region wanes, this expansion is slipping.

@andrewsweiss.bsky.social and Frederic Wehrey explain, for @foreignaffairs.com: www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/why-r...

Can Mullin Revive FEMA? Restoring competence and trust to the anemic, neglected disaster recovery agency is a matter of national security.

Under the Trump administration – and former DHS head Kristi Noem – FEMA faced massive challenges. Can a new secretary reshape the agency in time for this year’s disaster season?

@sarahlabo.bsky.social and Debbra Goh explain: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

President Trump’s return to the White House raises big questions for India’s foreign policy strategy. Where is India reshaping its approach – and where is it not?

A new Carnegie compilation, edited by @milanv.bsky.social, explores these questions. Read here: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

I Served in Baghdad. Trump is Repeating the Mistakes of Iraq. "I served as an intelligence officer in Baghdad. The mistakes of the disastrous invasion of Iraq are being repeated with the war on Iran," writes Frederic Wehrey

Regime change won’t bring stability to the Middle East. “The structural failures that are the true roots of the region's turmoil—not Tehran—will go unaddressed,” writes Frederic Wehrey.

More in @time.com: time.com/article/2026...

Gen Z Protests Across Asia Offer a Delicate but Renewed Democratic Order A disconnect between Gen Z citizenry and older rulers has fueled massive demonstrations. What are the key issues and how is protest energy translating into electoral change?

Gen Z activists are using digital tools to fuel a new wave of activism and public pressure. But as their influence has grown, governments have responded with intensified online repression.

@usamakhilji.bsky.social explains: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Iran Is Trying to Defeat America in the Living Room The regime knows that its best ally against American power is American public opinion.

The Iranian regime learned early on that one of its most effective weapons against the United States is American public opinion.

For @theatlantic.com, @ksadjadpour.bsky.social explained how Iran is using that tool now: www.theatlantic.com/internationa...